Another good week last week with the FRL (Alex Noren) and Runner Up (Rafa Cabrera Bello) in Dubai and a part place (JB Holmes) in Phoenix Not as good as the prevoius weeks but we can't get both winners every week.
Two contrasting events this week with a low quality field this side of the pond but a top quality field in the PGA Event.
Tshwane Open
This event is being held for only the second time at the Pretoria Country Club so we have limited course form to go on. The betting is headed by Schwartzel & Coetzee with the rest at 20/1+. This is a short course where Accuracy & GIR are important.
George Coetzee 15/2 is the most obviouswinner here. He first joined this club as a ten year old & learned his golf here. He won last year and is coming back to form with a 13th & 7th on his recent starts.
Haydn Porteous 28/1 has impressed me this year. Obviously caught the eye winning the Joburg Open last month but showed it was no fluke with an 8th last week in a strong field in Dubai. In this field, he should be close.
Christiaan Bezuidenhuit 40/1 owes us nothing after his second at 250/1 last month but think he could give us a good run here in a weak field.
Think FRL bets on Porteous 33/1 & Bez 50/1 are worth it as both have good early Day One draws.
This is the 75th edition of this tournament which has a attracted a high quality field led by Speith, Dustin, Day, Snedeker, Bubba & Rose. It is staged over three courses with a 54 hole cut with the final day on the Pebble Beach course. GIR & Putting appear to be the key stats here with driving length & accuracy counting for little.
Speith is a worthy favourite but there is little value at 5/1 although I have e/w doubled him with Coetzee.
Jimmy Walker 18/1 Walker won this event two years ago so likes the course. His last four finishes are 8th, 10th, 13th & 4th so he is in good nick & I feel he is ready to win one.
Phil Mickelson 22/1 Never rule Lefty out on this course or this event - he loves it here & has won when totally out of form, which he isn't with a 3rd & 11th from three starts this season.
Bryce Molder 100/1 A bit of a hot & cold player but has performed well here before and off the back of a 6th place last week could give value at 100/1.
Aaron Baddeley 200/1 This is a bit of a punt but Baddeley has proved he can win and at 200/1 then he stands out as value. Got an 8th two weeks ago at the Farmers and a small bet here is in order.
Cna someone explain these bets to me lol.. I have just put on: J Harding & Anthony Micheal without chwartzrel & coetzee @ 200/1 & 350/1 respectively? What has to happen for a return? I Cant get my head round it, oh and its £2.50 e/w on both Posted by mrdavies
Hey Mr. Davies, welcome back, don't forget I'm not the only one around here who manages to put up the odd winner.
I'm not sure how you managed to get those prices after completion of day one, but if you have backed J Hardig 200/1 and A Micheal 300/1 without Schwartzel and Coetzee, it means exactly what it says.
So if Coetzee wins, Schwartzel is second and Anthony Michael third at 300/1, your bet takes out the first two. so you would have a 300/1 winner!
Same applies to the place side of the bet, if your bet is 5 places ew and Coetzee and Schwartzel finish top 5, you are paid out down to 7th place.
so what if Schwartzel & Coetzee finish nowhere in the running, as in out of top 10?
I have taken a picture as proof, because I have a feeling IF i come into any winnings it will be classed as an 'error'.
I know your not the only winner, but I have had so much success with your tips I cant deviate for the minute! I still trying to get a follow back on twitter off Thomas Pieters to thank him haha OJ!!
Cna someone explain these bets to me lol.. I have just put on: J Harding & Anthony Micheal without chwartzrel & coetzee @ 200/1 & 350/1 respectively? What has to happen for a return? I Cant get my head round it, oh and its £2.50 e/w on both Posted by mrdavies
Those odds are clearly wrong if placed after Round One. They were both around 40/1 with everyone included last night so there is a good chance they will try to claim the bet as invalid because the odds were clearly a mistake. Have had this myself in the past (although I knew at the time they had made a mistake) and I had to accept a £10 free bet.
surely if i win i just get it at the price it should have been? Posted by mrdavies
I had the same situation & what happened was that after Day One, they put up the pre tournament prices again so I thought I would place bets on the two leaders who were both over 100/1 but now under 10/1 with all other companies. They voided the bets within a couple of hours so I got my stakes refunded whether they won or lost. As it happens, one lost & one got a place but the bets were voided before then.
They did give me a free £10 bet as a goodwill gesture.
Depends on their rules but I guess your stakes will get refunded although you never know, yu might get lucky & the let the bets stand.
They paid it out folks, £127.00, he ended up placed second. If it wasn't for the guy who actually come second of was worth £650 Posted by mrdavies
Wow incredible, bet you wish you had put more on now :-)
I didn't catch the last hour of the golf, thought I'd got a couple of places locked up with Lombard and Burmester, so was disappointed when I saw final positions, Burmester was main bet for me, so at least he hung on.
Nothing happening at Pebble for me, didn't fancy an in running bet, so that's me done for the week.
Not watching it but hoping Mickleson can bring Ice Tiger another win for the forum.
Mickelson ended up second but should have won here. A level par round saw him miss out on a Playoff by a shot. He needed two birdies on the final two holes to tie Vaughn Taylor's clubhouse score. He duly hit a birdie two on the 17th with an 18 foot putt and was ideally placed to get a birdie four on the 18th when his eight foot putt rimmed out, leaving him second.
Our Guys:
Jimmy Walker 18/1 -9 Tied 11th
Phil Mickelson 22/1 -16 Second
Aaron Baddeley 200/1 -1 Tied 51st
Shame we couldn't get the win here but that gives us two wins and four second places over the last four weeks and eight tournaments:
Thomas Pieters 55/1 2nd
Brandt Snedeker 18/1 1st
Branden Grace 8/1 1st
Rafa Cabrera Bello 40/1 2nd
Rafa Cabrera Bello 35/1 2nd
Phil Mickelson 22/1 2nd
If we go back a further two weeks, we also got Christiaan Bezuidenhuit for 2nd at 250/1 and places for Jamie Lovemark at 100/1, Joost Luiten at 70/1 & JB Holmes at 28/1 so on a pretty profitable 2016 so far.
The Royal Selangor course is new to the European Tour but we have information on it as it has staged plenty of other events. The course favours accuracy off the tee and big hitters tend to struggle unless they are very accurate. It is a par 71 with three par fives & four par threes. The weather forecast is set fair so the draw should have no major effect.
The leading players are Willett, Oosterhuizen, Luiten, Kaymer, Fitzpatrick & Pieters.
Danny Willett 11/1
Willett is a justified favourite here at a fair price. He has two top five finishes out of two in Malaysia and is bang in form with an impressive win in Dubai last week.
Joost Luiten 18/1
Luiten has the perfect game for this course as his driving accuracy is right up there with the best. He has a tour win in Malaysia from 2011 and is right in form with a 5th, 13th & 8th this year from three starts.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 22/1
Two top four finishes from four attempts in the Malaysian Open suggest he likes the courses out here plus another bang in form. We have had two second places in the last two weeks & I see no reason to desert him here despite a diminshing price.
Alejandro Canizares 50/1
Third in last year's Malaysian Open, he is looking to be hitting the form to win soon with two top ten finishes in his three events this year. This could be his week.
Gregory Bourdy 50/1
Another who should be suited by this course. He has three top six finishes from six starts in Malaysia. He has impressed in recent weeks without really getting close. Decent value at 50/1.
Think Canizares at 50/1 and RCB at 33/1 look like the bets for FRL this week.
A strong field here with Speith, McIlroy, Dustin, Matsuyama, Bubba, Rose, Walker, Garcia & Scott the biggest names here this week. There are question marks about all of them which makes it an open contest & one on which I am looking for players to upset the favoured players.
The Riviera course seems to favour GIR & Putting players. The course has Kikuya grass, a rarity on the PGA tour but normal in South Africa so could favour players with experience of S African conditions.
Charl Schwartzel 33/1
Schwartzel has experience in spades of playing on this grass and should be around half this price in my opinion. He has played this event twice & and finished 3rd & 5th. He is currently in form with fur consecutive top ten finishes including two wins, in the Alfred Dunhill and last week at Tshwane by eight shots. Should be close if big names slip up.
Freddie Jacobson 66/1
Jacobson is in form with three top five finishes in his last four events. He is a bit of a streaky player so could be a good time to take advantage of his hot streak.
Smylie Kaufman 200/1
Think Smylie is a quality player. He picked up his first PGA Tour win in October and more will follow. The field is tough here but at 200/1, he is value.
Bill Haas - 33/1, was top of my short list this week, tied 8th last week and strong course form which includes a win here.
I was keen to take the early 33's as I thought he might have been a popular pick, looking at odds checker it seems he is friendless, can't say that worries me and the optimism is high.
JB Holmes - 33/1, At the half way stage last week I was more than quietly confident that JB was going to finish top 6 at the very least.
An average third round stalled the charge though he still finished the week in a tie for 11th.
Been knocking on the door for a few weeks now and at a course where he's played well before should be knocking on the door again.
Harris English 60/1, back on Harris English, he did us proud at 100/1 last time out, playing very well and at another course where he has decent form, still looks good value.
Flummoxed by the betting for Malaysia, I'd normally be saying Danny Willett can beat anyone and is over priced, now he's favourite i don't know where to turn.
I will have a saver bet on Danny, but at 10/1ish I can't go overboard at those odds so alternatives are:
Scott Hend - 66/1, Like Haas I backed Scott Hend early at 66/1, thinking he would be a popular pick but again seems to be virtually friendless.
He has a win in Asia, which I take as a big tick, he had a few highlights on the Desert swing, which showed his game looks to be in good shape.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 25/1, had an average desert swing, outshone by the more recognized golfers that seem to always play there.
Now on a course that should suit his tee to green accuracy and must take some confidence from being one of the winning players in the EurASia Cup held in Malaysia last month.
David Lipsky - 200/1, when I saw these odds I thought it was a mistake, granted his form hadn't been great recently but in this type of field he's no also ran, a winner in Asia and former Asian Order of Merit winner, at 200/1 I think he worth a speculative ew tipple.
In Europe/Malaysia this week I'm going left field..... All the pundits/experts/punters will no doubt focus on the European players.... I'm reducing stakes and backing 2 good, solid Asian players.... KT Kim (main fancy) ew @ 80/1. He's a prolific winner on The Japanese Tour, and for back up, Jeunghun W@ng ew @ 45/1. He has decent recent form. At the last min I've added Illonen ew @ 50/1. And as Kim is out early I'm on him ew @ 80/1 for FRL
In the USA sim sticking to course and distance form.... It's DJ ew 14/1 Paddy paying top 7, and a bit at 18/1 win only coral..... His wingman is Sergio ew @ 25/1 paddy top 7....
Comments
I have just put on:
J Harding & Anthony Micheal without chwartzrel & coetzee @ 200/1 & 350/1 respectively?
What has to happen for a return? I Cant get my head round it, oh and its £2.50 e/w on both
I'm not sure how you managed to get those prices after completion of day one, but if you have backed J Hardig 200/1 and A Micheal 300/1 without Schwartzel and Coetzee, it means exactly what it says.
So if Coetzee wins, Schwartzel is second and Anthony Michael third at 300/1, your bet takes out the first two. so you would have a 300/1 winner!
Same applies to the place side of the bet, if your bet is 5 places ew and Coetzee and Schwartzel finish top 5, you are paid out down to 7th place.
Good Luck.
I have taken a picture as proof, because I have a feeling IF i come into any winnings it will be classed as an 'error'.
I know your not the only winner, but I have had so much success with your tips I cant deviate for the minute! I still trying to get a follow back on twitter off Thomas Pieters to thank him haha OJ!!
No problem if they finish outside top 10, just as long your men finish top 5.
Yep will be interesting to see what happens if even of the bets come in.
Glad you've done Ok from my ramblings, lets hope it continues and lol at your stalking of Thomas Pieters :-)
Yeah I will fight it to the death if they win LOL!!!
Good luck everyone. just had a wild one on bronson burgoon cos he's got a cool name!! and he's 100/1
Mickelson ended up second but should have won here. A level par round saw him miss out on a Playoff by a shot. He needed two birdies on the final two holes to tie Vaughn Taylor's clubhouse score. He duly hit a birdie two on the 17th with an 18 foot putt and was ideally placed to get a birdie four on the 18th when his eight foot putt rimmed out, leaving him second.
Our Guys:
Jimmy Walker 18/1 -9 Tied 11th
Phil Mickelson 22/1 -16 Second
Aaron Baddeley 200/1 -1 Tied 51st
Bill Haas - 33/1, was top of my short list this week, tied 8th last week and strong course form which includes a win here.
I was keen to take the early 33's as I thought he might have been a popular pick, looking at odds checker it seems he is friendless, can't say that worries me and the optimism is high.
JB Holmes - 33/1, At the half way stage last week I was more than quietly confident that JB was going to finish top 6 at the very least.
An average third round stalled the charge though he still finished the week in a tie for 11th.
Been knocking on the door for a few weeks now and at a course where he's played well before should be knocking on the door again.
Harris English 60/1, back on Harris English, he did us proud at 100/1 last time out, playing very well and at another course where he has decent form, still looks good value.
Flummoxed by the betting for Malaysia, I'd normally be saying Danny Willett can beat anyone and is over priced, now he's favourite i don't know where to turn.
I will have a saver bet on Danny, but at 10/1ish I can't go overboard at those odds so alternatives are:
Scott Hend - 66/1, Like Haas I backed Scott Hend early at 66/1, thinking he would be a popular pick but again seems to be virtually friendless.
He has a win in Asia, which I take as a big tick, he had a few highlights on the Desert swing, which showed his game looks to be in good shape.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 25/1, had an average desert swing, outshone by the more recognized golfers that seem to always play there.
Now on a course that should suit his tee to green accuracy and must take some confidence from being one of the winning players in the EurASia Cup held in Malaysia last month.
David Lipsky - 200/1, when I saw these odds I thought it was a mistake, granted his form hadn't been great recently but in this type of field he's no also ran, a winner in Asia and former Asian Order of Merit winner, at 200/1 I think he worth a speculative ew tipple.