Danny Willet looking very strong, so any in running bet has to be about a place return as much as anything.
I almost went with MiguelTabuena pre tournament, he's in a tie for 8th 2 off the lead after the first round and is still a tempting 90/1,which is good enough for me.
He won on the Asian Tour in December in the Philipines, his home country.
He was 4th in the recent Singapore Open and is definitely an up and coming player who's confidence levels are high.
This will be his biggest test yet, but what bits I've seen and read about him suggests he may well be a big game player in the making.
Malaysia Open In Running Danny Willet looking very strong, so any in running bet has to be about a place return as much as anything. I almost went with Miguel Tabuena pre tournament, he's in a tie for 8th 2 off the lead after the first round and is still a tempting 90/1, which is good enough for me. He won on the Asian Tour in December in the Philipines, his home country. He was 4th in the recent Singapore Open and is definitely an up and coming player who's confidence levels are high. This will be his biggest test yet, but what bits I've seen and read about him suggests he may well be a big game player in the making. Posted by TheDart
Well that was a perfect example of the value of adding an in running bet to the portfolio.
A second at 90/1, turned potential losses into a tidy profit.
Well done Dartster, didn't know til I just logged on u snared an in-running good thing.
That cross-bar must need changing now the amount of times Ive rattled it this year... So to this week..... In Australia I'm going for the 1st, 4th and 4th from 2 years ago. Olsesen, 20/1 Bjerregaard 33/1 and Griffin 70/1 (think he'll surprise this week) all ew.
In the USA it's mainly Reed 22/1. With small wagers on Jacobsen 80/1 (coral) win only and 66/1 ew Skybet (for the 6th place) and Berger 90/1, again all ew.
* Just added Griffin for FRL 66/1 as he's out in the 1st group.
Louis Oosterhuizen leads the betting at 11/1 for the 4th running of this event at the Lake Karrinyup Country Club in Perth.
This is a course with wide fairways where accuracy counts for very little and GIR players are likely to succeed.
Looking at the field, I am torn whether this is an easy event to pick the winner or a particularly tough one because two names jump off the page at me and despite a fair bit of research, nothing better is hitting me.
Thorbjorn Oleson 20/1
Oleson is reigning champion here and has the perfect game for this course. He has a second & an eight from his last three starts so is most likely to go close here.
Lucas Bjerregaard 33/1
Lucas was 4th here last year and has improved immesurably since then and should go very close in a field which is pretty weak overall. The signs were there last week that he is coming back to form and on this course, his big drives won't get punished if he loses his radar.
Miguel Tabuena 60/1
Couldn't help but be impressed with this guy last week and feel at the price he might give us another good run.
A trio of FRL with Matthew Griffin, Stephen Gallacher & Romain Wattel, all out early.
We have a pretty strong field for this event at the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach, Florida, headed by McIlroy, Fowler, Reed, Matsuyama, Scott, Mickelson & Grace. This event started in 1972 but has run on this course since 2007 so we have enough data to get a good feel for things. This is a tough course where the wind usually blows and a score of -10 is usually enough to take the title.
I talked about linking courses & tournaments a few months ago & this is one where players that do well in the Sony Open tend to do well here as well so giving us far more data. The overlap is pretty clear and obvious with both courses being blustery and Bermuda.
Struggling to see much value in the big names here with only Reed having much appeal so going for four players at triple figure prices that might just hook a big win.
Russell Henley 125/1
A win here two years ago and also a Sony Open winner so is well suited to this course.
Camilio Villegas 150/1
Won here in 2010 and was second in 2007 so likes the course. Showed form last week so might give a run.
Fabian Gomez 200/1
Won the Sony Open last month and Sony Open winners tend to do well here & he is 200/1.
Rory Sabbatini 250/1
Winner here in 2011 and twice runner up at the Sony Open so ideally suited to challenge again here.
The day job has got in the way this week, so late posting. I'm putting up the prices I took, appreciate some odds may have changed now.
ISPS Perth
Alexander Levy - 66/1, main pick this week, I like players on upward trends and after three missed cuts, Levy seems to be finding his feet, with improving results in his last 2 events.
He played here in 2013 before he was a 'proper' player and missed the cut by one shot. That experience obviously hasn't put him off and at least he has a bit of course knowledge in the memory banks.
Opened with a 65 in Malaysia last week and goes out in the first group in the morning (or tonight), so a perfect slot to get off to another flier, means I'm also on at 66/1 for FRL.
Lucas Bjerrergaard - 33.1, reading the above posts its clear Lucas B is the sky poker forum player of the week, lets hope he doesn't let us down.
Ticks so many boxes, in a weakfish field, he clearly has many things in his favor this week.
Mikko Illonen - 33/1, an up and down week last week, which was somewhat diluted with a disappointing final round. That said he looks like a player coming into form, conditions suggest they will be to Illonens strengths and in this field if Illonen can peak this week, he will take some stopping.
Miguel Tabuena - 55/1, its not very often I take the trouble to post picks in running, but there is so much I like about Tabuena that's what I did last week and for me personally Tabuena gave me a decent profit.
There can be a tendency for young players on the up, to suddenly throw in an off week, but that random fact / opinion aside, there is no logic in me not backing Tabuena this week.
Plenty of good showings from Europeans in recent years here, possibly down to the conditions and partly down to the fact that so many Europeans are based at and around this course / location.
Shane Lowry - 60/1 (first 6), those good results from Europeans include a win for two Irishmen, Rory and Padraig and I'm hoping Shane Lowry will make it an Irish hat trick.
Course and potential wind will favor Shane Lowry and looks decent value over some of the players at the front of the market.
Patrick Reed - 22/1, one player at the front of the market I did jump on was Reed at 22/1.
Sean O' Hair - 150/1, I'd say 100/1 was about fair, 150/1 is very generous, O'Hair can play well in Florida and did show glimpses of form on the West coast, so worth a speculative ew punt in my book.
Jason Dufner - 80/1 (first 6) he was 90/1 earlier in the week and I didn't commit as I felt the price might indicate an injury or illness for Dufner that I was unaware of.
Seems Dufner is fighting fit, (fitter than he's ever been) and the 90/1 has been taken, so Sky is now being punished for me missing out on the best odds and an increased stakes bet at the lesser price of 80/1 but at 6 places instead of 5 is placed.
Well done all on your recent picks and winners. I also watched Tabuena after your in play bet Darty but unfortunately for me had trouble with internet when trying to place a bet with connection issues and gave up trying ( but my money could have jinxed it!
Anyway this week i'm already on Tabuena at 55/1 at Perth.
And for Honda classic i'm on K. Kisner 30/1 and J. Kokrak 80/1 ew 1st 6 places.
ISPS Handa Perth International Louis Oosterhuizen leads the betting at 11/1 for the 4th running of this event at the Lake Karrinyup Country Club in Perth. This is a course with wide fairways where accuracy counts for very little and GIR players are likely to succeed. Looking at the field, I am torn whether this is an easy event to pick the winner or a particularly tough one because two names jump off the page at me and despite a fair bit of research, nothing better is hitting me. Thorbjorn Oleson 20/1 Oleson is reigning champion here and has the perfect game for this course. He has a second & an eight from his last three starts so is most likely to go close here. Lucas Bjerregaard 33/1 Lucas was 4th here last year and has improved immesurably since then and should go very close in a field which is pretty weak overall. The signs were there last week that he is coming back to form and on this course, his big drives won't get punished if he loses his radar. Miguel Tabuena 60/1 Couldn't help but be impressed with this guy last week and feel at the price he might give us another good run. A trio of FRL with Matthew Griffin, Stephen Gallacher & Romain Wattel, all out early. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Freerolling this week now after Wattel finished seconf in FRL contest at 66/1 so get a full place at 66/4.
The one big event this week, so I treated myself to a bit of extra time to study relevant stats for the players on the PGA Tour.
It's difficult to argue against the case that this is now more than ever a bombers course, though there is also a premium on being able to hit fairways and greens, as there is PLENTY of water out there, so maybe somebody like Graeme Mcdowell at 66/1 shouldn't be completely ignored.
DJ, Bubba, Rory, Day, Spieth and Fowler all have the strengths and credentials to win this and are rightly at the head of the betting.
Then there is Adam Scott, I have to say if there was a rule that said last weeks winner gets to pick the venue for the next week, I'm sure Doral would have been high on Adam Scotts list, he is clearly the man in form and is right up there on all the key stats that are necessary to compete around here.
Problem for me is that Adam and I have never got on, he wins when I don't back him and more often than not, he misses cuts when I do back him. He can't miss the cut this week, but it's not easy to come up with back to back wins and at odds of 12/1, Adam I will remain apart.
Danny Willett - 80/1, Ok I admit to having Willettitis, but that's not a bad thing, in fact its proved to be a very profitable symptom that is treatable with winning bets.
Danny Willett has all the attributes to suit Doral, he is one of the best drivers of the ball on the European Tour, he is bang in form, recently winning in Dubai, could well have won last time in Malaysia if he hadn't have been fighting the flu.
Willett made his debut at Doral last year, five over par after the first two days, he found his feet over the weekend to get back to level par and finish tied 12th.
Normal service is resumed, at 80/1 Danny Willett is way over priced and even 66/1 6 places is decent value.
Justin Rose - 25/1 6 places, I like the fact that whilst virtually every other player has already been filling their playing schedule, Rose has been lightly raced.
If he was a racehorse you'd say he was being trained and held back for the big races.
He won on this track before the changes, but he is sneaky long and his US Open win proved, he is one of the best tee to green.
Justin Rose 25/1 6 places, is the dark horse of the race in my book.
JB Holmes - 25/1 6 places, runner up last year and been playing very well this year, with a number of top 10 results.
A perfect fit for current form and course form and at twice the price of the market leaders.
Brooks Koepka - 40/1 6 places, if you don't have a nervous disposition and like a player who will 'go for it' Brooks Koepka could be your man around here.
Tied 17th on his debut last year and that was with 7 shots dropped on just 3 holes. If he can learn from that first year and move more towards controlled aggression, he could well be a factor this week.
Chris Wood - 250/1 5 places, 200/1 6 places, Always on the look out for at least one 3 figure priced player a week and this week Chris Wood gets the vote.
He has proven in the past that when on his game he is up to the task of competing with anyone, anywhere.
Admittedly breaking into the top 6 this week is a tall order, so 18/1 top 10 and 6/1 top 20 maybe the better options.
Im in Dartyyy.. good luck to you too. come on chrisssy wood :0p Posted by mrdavies
Nice One Mr. Davies, a 250/1 winner would be nice, but I was kind of thinking that we could start with one of the other guys getting a place and anything else is a bonus :-)
For the record, I said it may not pay to dismiss Gmac just because he's not a bomber off the tee, I've now added Graeme Mcdowell to my portfolio.
Some weeks the bets jump out at you but this is one of those weeks where they don't really. We can probably eliminate 75% of the field reasonably easily but after that, it is possible to argue a good case for most of the rest.
This tournament is played on the Doral Course (often known as the Blue Monster), which clearly favours the big hitters and 48 of the World Top 50 are competing here in the toughest field so far of 2016. McIlroy heads the betting at 10/1 with Bubba, Dustin, Scott, Speith, Day, Fowler, Stenson & Rose not far behind. Making a long list was easy; selecting the winner is a fair bit tougher.
We have many years on this course so plenty of form to go on & driving distance has provided most of the winners and pretty much none of the other performance stats comes close in finding a winner. However, in 2014 the course was redesigned, making it much tougher but still favouring the big hitters. There have been some adjustments for this year, most significantly dropping several bunkers back 20-40 yards to catch the big hitters drives. How much effect this has is unknown.
Last season's big three are here but none of them has set the world alight this season although I have to admit to being tempted by Rory at a double figures price. One thing that I have noticed about golfers who do well in this event is that they are invariably golfers who went into this event in form. It is not a course that favours first time players.
So we are looking for big hitters, a good course record and good current form.
I think we have to bypass McIlroy, Speith, Day & Fowler here; the first three on grounds of form and Fowler because he struggles on this course. My problem has been chopping my long list of ten down.
Bubba Watson 12/1
There are never any guarantees with Bubba but his chances this week are as good as ever. He blows hot and cold but he appears to be blowing hot at the moment so it is the right time to side with him here. He come off the back of a win and has a 2nd & 3rd here since the course redesigned. If he is on it, should go very close.
Adam Scott 12/1
Scott made my long list last week but I decided to go only with triple figure priced players & missed out. This week, he makes my short list. He has always tended to win in clusters and his current form is irresistable. On top of his win last week, he has two runner up finishes in his previous three events. He also has two top five finishes in this event in the last three years. Put this together & he should be there or thereabouts.
JB Holmes 30/1
Should have won here last year but let a five shot lead slip on the final day. Looks ripe for a win with a lowest place of 11th from his four starts this year. Should be able to boom it down the fairways here & is a more than fair price.
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Think this is a great price for a player ideally suited by the course & bang in form. In four starts this year he has finished 12th, 7th & 1st, winning in Perth last week. It was also the way he won that impressed me. His swing got progressively more relaxed with each round which will be ideal on this course. He finished 6th here last year and I expect him to go even better this year.
Danny Willett 70/1
If one player is overpriced here it is Willett. He is now ranked 15 in the world (rightly so) yet is 26th in the betting & that is on a course that is perfect for the long hitting Sheffielder. He is picking his events this year so will be going for the win. He won in Dubai four weeks ago so is in good nick plus he was 12th here a year ago on his debut and I expect a top five finish if he gets a decent start.
The other five players that I had in consideration this week were Dustin Johnson 12/1, Henrik Stenson 25/1, Brandt Snedeker 70/1, Andy Sullivan 125/1 & Scott Hend 400/1.
Will look at ways to include these players in FRL & Top Ten bets.
Looking at other markets this week, I've added Danny Willett 18/1 4 places in top European market.
Alternatives are 11/2 top 10 and I've had a saver on this, but at odds of just over 7/2 to finish in top 4 of the Europeans and the chance he might land the 18/1 win, I feel this is a decent alternative bet.
Chris Wood into 125/1 now, i had 200/1 tuesday?! anyone give me some educated bets for a FRL..High odds / in good form etcc.. Posted by mrdavies
Go on Mr. Davies I love a challenge....
Normally if I'm dabbling on FRL bets it will be to replicate the players I've backed outright, or in a full field of 156 players, a player going out early.
Going out on both sides of the course with less than 2 hours between first tee time and last tee time, I don't think tee times really come into play today.
So, looking for players who have been known to get off to a flier and / or in form.
Not too many players have shot rounds in the 60's around Doral since the renovations, so this is another factor to consider.
So here's my shortlist for First Round Leader, ew 5 places.
JB Holmes - 30/1, Set the course record last year with an opening 62 and playing very well this year, wouldn't be a shock if he was leading tonight.
Brooks Koepka - 40/1, Opening 68 last year, will play with no fear from the off, could go either way.
Bill Haas - 66/1, two top 10's since the course renovations, shot a 65 last year, has lead the Masters after day one.
Danny Willett - 66/1, debut last year and his last round of 68 was his best round, no stranger to leading tournaments after day one.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 100/1, no real course form, but one of the in form players from Europe who usually starts strong.
Comments
ISPS Perth
Alexander Levy - 66/1, main pick this week, I like players on upward trends and after three missed cuts, Levy seems to be finding his feet, with improving results in his last 2 events.
He played here in 2013 before he was a 'proper' player and missed the cut by one shot. That experience obviously hasn't put him off and at least he has a bit of course knowledge in the memory banks.
Opened with a 65 in Malaysia last week and goes out in the first group in the morning (or tonight), so a perfect slot to get off to another flier, means I'm also on at 66/1 for FRL.
Lucas Bjerrergaard - 33.1, reading the above posts its clear Lucas B is the sky poker forum player of the week, lets hope he doesn't let us down.
Ticks so many boxes, in a weakfish field, he clearly has many things in his favor this week.
Mikko Illonen - 33/1, an up and down week last week, which was somewhat diluted with a disappointing final round.
That said he looks like a player coming into form, conditions suggest they will be to Illonens strengths and in this field if Illonen can peak this week, he will take some stopping.
Miguel Tabuena - 55/1, its not very often I take the trouble to post picks in running, but there is so much I like about
Tabuena that's what I did last week and for me personally Tabuena gave me a decent profit.
There can be a tendency for young players on the up, to suddenly throw in an off week, but that random fact / opinion aside, there is no logic in me not backing Tabuena this week.
Plenty of good showings from Europeans in recent years here, possibly down to the conditions and partly down to the fact that so many Europeans are based at and around this course / location.
Shane Lowry - 60/1 (first 6), those good results from Europeans include a win for two Irishmen, Rory and Padraig and I'm hoping Shane Lowry will make it an Irish hat trick.
Course and potential wind will favor Shane Lowry and looks decent value over some of the players at the front of the market.
Patrick Reed - 22/1, one player at the front of the market I did jump on was Reed at 22/1.
Sean O' Hair - 150/1, I'd say 100/1 was about fair, 150/1 is very generous, O'Hair can play well in Florida and did show glimpses of form on the West coast, so worth a speculative ew punt in my book.
Jason Dufner - 80/1 (first 6) he was 90/1 earlier in the week and I didn't commit as I felt the price might indicate an injury or illness for Dufner that I was unaware of.
Seems Dufner is fighting fit, (fitter than he's ever been) and the 90/1 has been taken, so Sky is now being punished for me missing out on the best odds and an increased stakes bet at the lesser price of 80/1 but at 6 places instead of 5 is placed.
This should be a Dufner type of week!
The one big event this week, so I treated myself to a bit of extra time to study relevant stats for the players on the PGA Tour.
It's difficult to argue against the case that this is now more than ever a bombers course, though there is also a premium on being able to hit fairways and greens, as there is PLENTY of water out there, so maybe somebody like Graeme Mcdowell at 66/1 shouldn't be completely ignored.
DJ, Bubba, Rory, Day, Spieth and Fowler all have the strengths and credentials to win this and are rightly at the head of the betting.
Then there is Adam Scott, I have to say if there was a rule that said last weeks winner gets to pick the venue for the next week, I'm sure Doral would have been high on Adam Scotts list, he is clearly the man in form and is right up there on all the key stats that are necessary to compete around here.
Problem for me is that Adam and I have never got on, he wins when I don't back him and more often than not, he misses cuts when I do back him. He can't miss the cut this week, but it's not easy to come up with back to back wins and at odds of 12/1, Adam I will remain apart.
Danny Willett - 80/1, Ok I admit to having Willettitis, but that's not a bad thing, in fact its proved to be a very profitable symptom that is treatable with winning bets.
Danny Willett has all the attributes to suit Doral, he is one of the best drivers of the ball on the European Tour, he is bang in form, recently winning in Dubai, could well have won last time in Malaysia if he hadn't have been fighting the flu.
Willett made his debut at Doral last year, five over par after the first two days, he found his feet over the weekend to get back to level par and finish tied 12th.
Normal service is resumed, at 80/1 Danny Willett is way over priced and even 66/1 6 places is decent value.
Justin Rose - 25/1 6 places, I like the fact that whilst virtually every other player has already been filling their playing schedule, Rose has been lightly raced.
If he was a racehorse you'd say he was being trained and held back for the big races.
He won on this track before the changes, but he is sneaky long and his US Open win proved, he is one of the best tee to green.
Justin Rose 25/1 6 places, is the dark horse of the race in my book.
JB Holmes - 25/1 6 places, runner up last year and been playing very well this year, with a number of top 10 results.
A perfect fit for current form and course form and at twice the price of the market leaders.
Brooks Koepka - 40/1 6 places, if you don't have a nervous disposition and like a player who will 'go for it' Brooks Koepka could be your man around here.
Tied 17th on his debut last year and that was with 7 shots dropped on just 3 holes. If he can learn from that first year and move more towards controlled aggression, he could well be a factor this week.
Chris Wood - 250/1 5 places, 200/1 6 places, Always on the look out for at least one 3 figure priced player a week and this week Chris Wood gets the vote.
He has proven in the past that when on his game he is up to the task of competing with anyone, anywhere.
Admittedly breaking into the top 6 this week is a tall order, so 18/1 top 10 and 6/1 top 20 maybe the better options.
Good Luck All
For the record, I said it may not pay to dismiss Gmac just because he's not a bomber off the tee, I've now added Graeme Mcdowell to my portfolio.
Looking at other markets this week, I've added Danny Willett 18/1 4 places in top European market.
Alternatives are 11/2 top 10 and I've had a saver on this, but at odds of just over 7/2 to finish in top 4 of the Europeans and the chance he might land the 18/1 win, I feel this is a decent alternative bet.
Normally if I'm dabbling on FRL bets it will be to replicate the players I've backed outright, or in a full field of 156 players, a player going out early.
Going out on both sides of the course with less than 2 hours between first tee time and last tee time, I don't think tee times really come into play today.
So, looking for players who have been known to get off to a flier and / or in form.
Not too many players have shot rounds in the 60's around Doral since the renovations, so this is another factor to consider.
So here's my shortlist for First Round Leader, ew 5 places.
JB Holmes - 30/1, Set the course record last year with an opening 62 and playing very well this year, wouldn't be a shock if he was leading tonight.
Brooks Koepka - 40/1, Opening 68 last year, will play with no fear from the off, could go either way.
Bill Haas - 66/1, two top 10's since the course renovations, shot a 65 last year, has lead the Masters after day one.
Danny Willett - 66/1, debut last year and his last round of 68 was his best round, no stranger to leading tournaments after day one.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 100/1, no real course form, but one of the in form players from Europe who usually starts strong.
Chris Wood - 150/1, you never know.