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Brexit

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  • tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,759
    I didn’t do ‘O’ Levels at school, I suggest “No one knows what it’s going to be like in the Uk post Brexit” infers it could be better, maybe clarification needed..
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited November 2018
    tomgoodun said:

    I didn’t do ‘O’ Levels at school, I suggest “No one knows what it’s going to be like in the Uk post Brexit” infers it could be better, maybe clarification needed..

    You can draw any inference you like from it. It's a statement of fact .
  • tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,759

    You can draw any inference you like from it. It's a statement of fact .
    I get it, kinda like “Brexit means Brexit”, a fact without substance.
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036

    You can draw any inference you like from it. It's a statement of fact .
    So then it would be wise to listen to the experts and industry leaders then when they talk about Brexit and its possible consequences?

    Of course, they don't know for sure, but they are much better placed than your average man or woman in the street to have some insight on the subject.

  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    tomgoodun said:

    I get it, kinda like “Brexit means Brexit”, a fact without substance.
    Do you know with certainty , what it's going to be like in the U.K. in say 20 years time post brexit ? Of course you don't , you have an idea of what you think it's going to be like based on your obvious stubborness to accept its going to be anything apart from worse for us as a whole . I prefer to keep an open mind and not speculate .
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited November 2018

    So then it would be wise to listen to the experts and industry leaders then when they talk about Brexit and its possible consequences?

    Of course, they don't know for sure, but they are much better placed than your average man or woman in the street to have some insight on the subject.

    Just as nobody does ( sorry, Tomgoodun thinks he does ) My statement clarified !
    Lets also point out that we have " experts" and " industry leaders " with opposing ideas of how it all could turn out . Any rational person doesn't just pick out the ones who support his/her own ideas without giving all on both sides consideration .
  • tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,759

    Just as nobody does ( sorry, Tomgoodun thinks he does ) My statement clarified !
    Lets also point out that we have " experts" and " industry leaders " with opposing ideas of how it all could turn out . Any rational person doesn't just pick out the ones who support his/her own ideas without giving all on both sides consideration .
    Where do you get the assumption that I think I do?
    I’m grateful for any education on the subject.
    My first post today suggested as much, but I guess your dislike of me clouds your rational thinking.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 38,949

    And that all seems fair enough , if accurate . You haven't mentioned the option of coming out of both the customs union and the single market , I believe ( happy to be corrected ) , that in order to come out of the single market we would be required to broker a trade deal with the E.U. ? Once again for clarification , I'm not advocating any of these options would be good or bad for the U.K.




    As I said earlier all that has been agreed so far are the terms under which we leave ie The Withdrawal Agreement, and the Backstop which is what happens after the Transition period, if we haven't concluded a trade deal. The trade deal will take years to conclude, and during this period we will remain in the Customs Union, and unable to sign trade deals with other countries.
    Theresa May has maintained throughout that we will not be staying in either the Single Market or Customs Union. The main reasons for this is that to be members of the Single Market you must accept Freedom of Movement. Being members of the Customs Union doesn't allow separate trade deals with other countries.

    Our membership currently allows access to both, but we have Freedom of Movement, and we also get access to the 65 trade deals that the EU has with other countries.

    Her plan for the trade deal is to access parts of the Single Market by remaining aligned with the EU via a Common Rule Book. The degree of this alignment will have a bearing on our access and our ability to do trade deals with other countries. It would probably be fair to say that the more aligned we remain, the more access to the Single Market we could get, but make trade deals elsewhere less likely.

    She wants a Customs Arrangement that may allow frictionless, tariff free trade, that avoids border delays, and allows trade deals elsewhere.

    The Labour Party on the other hand maintain the impossible position, of advocating full membership of the Single Market, but with no Freedom of Movement. Also membership of the Customs Union, to have a say in the rule making as non members, and to be able to strike our own trade deals.

    We don't have to do a trade deal with the EU, and a small amount of Brexiteers are advocating leaving with no deal. About half our trade is done with the EU, and most experts would see us leaving with no deal, as a complete disaster in many respects. All Brexit projections show us becoming worse off. These vary in severity, the worst being the no deal option. Theresa May used to say every day that no deal is better than a bad deal, but stopped saying it when the evidence clearly pointed to the contrary.

    What we are getting is what has been called a Blind Brexit, as we will legally leave at the end of March next year without having a clue what the details of the final deal will be.

    One categorical fact on Brexit is that we will not be allowed to maintain the same benefits as non members that we enjoyed as members, and therefore will logically be worse off than we are now.

    If we still don't know what the deal is likely to be, how could anyone have known at the time of the referendum.
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036

    Just as nobody does ( sorry, Tomgoodun thinks he does ) My statement clarified !
    Lets also point out that we have " experts" and " industry leaders " with opposing ideas of how it all could turn out . Any rational person doesn't just pick out the ones who support his/her own ideas without giving all on both sides consideration .
    This is very true.

    So how many experts and industry leader type people have you seen predicting that Brexit will be sweetness and light? And the reverse, how many have you seen that have warned of economic crisis, job losses etc?
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 38,949

    Exactly ! Long time since I got an O level in English , but don't see anything in my post where I'm suggesting anything . Just stating a fact that no one really knows what it's going to be like post brexit , one of the main reasons being we don't know exactly what sort of deal is going to be brokered . If you need me to explain the clearly typed word any further just ask .



    Whatever the deal looks like, this will still apply,


    Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.


    So on that basis you surely cant be saying that you think we will be better off?
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    Some Industry leaders pro brexit : https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/01/uk-business-figures-still-backing-brexit
    HAYSIE said:




    Whatever the deal looks like, this will still apply,


    Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.


    So on that basis you surely cant be saying that you think we will be better off?
    For the umpteenth time , I'm saying I don't know long term , and neither do you !
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 38,949
    HAYSIE said:




    Whatever the deal looks like, this will still apply,


    Are you seriously suggesting that the immediate loss of 65 trade deals, some of our Single Market access, and the inability to do our own free trade deals for years to come, will improve our economy.


    So on that basis you surely cant be saying that you think we will be better off?
    Let me try once more.
    These are facts.
    We currently have full access to The Single Market. In the future irrespective of the deal, we will have less access.
    I think you must assume that less access can only mean less trade.
    We will lose access to trade deals with 65 countries that we currently have access to. One would assume that this would mean less trade.
    During the years that we spend negotiating the deal we will have Customs Union access which will stop us signing any new trade deals.
    I am not sure that it is possible to think that these measures could possibly make us at all better off.

    A common sense view will be that we will be worse off, but in the long term who knows.

    There have been flying pigs, and unicorns associated with Brexit.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited November 2018
    tomgoodun said:

    Where do you get the assumption that I think I do?
    I’m grateful for any education on the subject.
    My first post today suggested as much, but I guess your dislike of me clouds your rational thinking.
    Nope wrong assumption , once again ..thinking quite rationally here . I've categorically said now quite a few times , that neither me , nor anyone else really knows with any certainty what is going to be the effect post brexit , a lot will depend on the deal brokered and its implementation . Whatever " inferences" you may wish to draw , say more about your thoughts about me and your own irrationality , than it does about me . Also by trying to point score , you are deflecting the thread , which you claimed to appreciate , in one of your earlier posts .
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793

    This is very true.

    So how many experts and industry leader type people have you seen predicting that Brexit will be sweetness and light? And the reverse, how many have you seen that have warned of economic crisis, job losses etc?
    More than I have seen pro brexit , however that doesn't mean they are right and for example these prominent business leaders are wrong >>https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/01/uk-business-figures-still-backing-brexit
    Once again , at the expense of sounding like a broken record , I am undecided about how how it will turn out and won't be drawn onto one side or the other .
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    HAYSIE said:

    Let me try once more.
    These are facts.
    We currently have full access to The Single Market. In the future irrespective of the deal, we will have less access.
    I think you must assume that less access can only mean less trade.
    We will lose access to trade deals with 65 countries that we currently have access to. One would assume that this would mean less trade.
    During the years that we spend negotiating the deal we will have Customs Union access which will stop us signing any new trade deals.
    I am not sure that it is possible to think that these measures could possibly make us at all better off.

    A common sense view will be that we will be worse off, but in the long term who knows.

    There have been flying pigs, and unicorns associated with Brexit.
    For " common sense " read : Haysies view. Who knows in the long term , is exactly what i've said ..thankyou !
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036



    For " common sense " read : Haysies view. Who knows in the long term , is exactly what i've said ..thankyou !
    Like it or not, the general consensus is that we will be significantly worse off. There is a lot more doom and gloom anticipated than sweetness and light.

    I know you'll highlight 'anticipated' and yelp on about ''no one knows for sure'' but its times like these that you look to the experts to give us some insight and guidance and their predictions for bad outcomes far outweigh any positive predictions or forecasts.
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036
    Dobiesdraw, you're planning on going to the beach this weekend if the weather is nice. No one knows what the weather is going to be like in 5 days time, but you'd like to get a heads up if its going to be ok or not ok so you can plan accordingly.

    What do you do?
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793
    edited November 2018

    Dobiesdraw, you're planning on going to the beach this weekend if the weather is nice. No one knows what the weather is going to be like in 5 days time, but you'd like to get a heads up if its going to be ok or not ok so you can plan accordingly.

    What do you do?

    Irrelevant , because I'm already at the beach , figuratively speaking .( I don't believe that there will be a 2nd referendum ,) I can listen to all sides of the argument , but the horse has bolted . Michael fish 1987 !
  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr Member Posts: 8,036

    Irrelevant , because I'm already at the beach .( I don't believe that there will be a 2nd referendum ,) I can listen to all sides of the argument , but the horse has bolted . Michael fish 1987 !
    Ok, so you don't want to answer cos it'll show you and your thought process up.

    No worries.
  • dobiesdrawdobiesdraw Member Posts: 2,793

    Ok, so you don't want to answer cos it'll show you and your thought process up.

    No worries.
    The question is laughable it really doesn't merit an answer . You must be skyping with tomgoodun !
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