Think in the hand above, we should probably be semibluffing. Effective stack is only 21k, we have 77k back, we have 9 outs against a lot of stuff that can call us and they can make some tighter folds than they otherwise would because they're out if they're wrong. (That's even more applicable if we're near the bubble)
We can potentially get mightyaxe to fold some weaker Ax that he defends with by jamming ourselves as well - What's he doing with A5cc here if you shove? Considering he probably 3b shoves a lot of his Ace-Broadway stuff pre-flop, I think we can get him to fold a large chunk of his range that would otherwise continue. If we run into a set/NFD/2pr, so be it.
By jamming we should also get Scotty to fold any PPs that he's decided to cbet with. Also if he has a total airball, getting him to fold out his equity and winning the pot when we have K high can never be a bad thing.
When we do get called, we have somewhere around 30% equity vs all the Ax that Scotty opens. It's pretty meh if Mightyaxe cold calls but I don't think that happens a whole lot unless he has set/NFD/2pr himself, plus maybe the odd big Ax that he might peel pre instead of shoving. He's probs folding his A5cc type stuff that he defends IMO. I think he's folding weaker FDs too but if not, then that's great for us.
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As played, here's (very roughly) the range I think Mightyaxe is likely to shove with IMO. You could make an argument for him shoving PPs pre rather than set mining off this stack, as well as possibly having a different amount of Ax in his range. However as we have ~30-35% vs Ax and 33/66 anyway, the equity difference it makes to add/remove any combos of those hands is negligible.
We have a FD and we're getting marginally above 2/1. Sucks if he has Axhh but a lot of the time he's just jamming an Ace or any heart combos he peels pre because of the SPR involved, and that gives us enough equity that we're pretty much obliged to call IMO.
Fwiw that's for a freezeout. If it's a BH then it goes from being a "Meh call I guess" to instead calling and being very happy about it.
If we're deeper then maybe I like the flop call more. Once we get this shallow, just shove as a semi-bluff IMO.
Very informative post there Taking in what you have explained and looking back at the hand with a fresh head today it is a clear shove as I have them out chipped by 4:1 so they have to be pretty sure about there hand to call a shove from me I guess, and like you said I have still got decent equity against there range.
If I am getting 2-1 on a call what equity do I need to have to make it a profitable call ? 33% breakeven more or less ? (sorry if I sound like a total donk)
I really like the way you have put your point across and it makes total sense. With me being mainly a cash game player one of my big leaks when playing MTTs is not taking full notice of stack sizes, and knowing roughly how many BB myself and others have. (alternating plays depending on SPR also baffles me a bit)
I tend to just go with the lesser variance approach unless I am really sure I have the best hand which I understand in the long run will cost me a lot of chips by not pushing my edge.
Well played Alan. You got the chips in good and that's all any of us can do.
Great gesture with your donation and really good of Graham to match it.
Do you plan on focussing on mtts a bit more now then?
Thanks mate and totally agree with what you said about Graham (Top Bloke)
No mate if I am being honest playing them everyday would drive me insane. I much prefer the fast paced action in cash games however when you have been playing cash games everyday for a while a MTT can be a nice change.
Might start trying to satellite into the Sunday main every week but that is probably as far as it will go apart from the odd low stakes MTT when I fancy a change.
I'm not too sure its a shove 20bb deep vs an UTG raise and 3 callers, but then I don't really play tournaments so not too qualified to answer, what do you think @Allan23 EDIT - Yes it probably is the more I think about it
You only have 12bb. With so much in the middle it looks a perfect spot to get it in.
Hi btw lol, have followed your diary from the off but first time I've posted. I see you are chip leader in the mini, best of luck, take it down.
With this hand by default we have ended up in middle ground and called. If we think utg range is very strong then I prefer the argument for folding rather than calling. I think we end up not really knowing where we are by calling and not sure what flops we will love multi way. I think if opener is super tight we should happily fold and if they are opening reasonably wide we can shove. In spots like this, if we get folds its massive for our stack.
Thanks for commenting mate, always good to get opinions from the best MTT players
I'm not too sure its a shove 20bb deep vs an UTG raise and 3 callers, but then I don't really play tournaments so not too qualified to answer, what do you think @Allan23 EDIT - Yes it probably is the more I think about it
You only have 12bb. With so much in the middle it looks a perfect spot to get it in.
Hi btw lol, have followed your diary from the off but first time I've posted. I see you are chip leader in the mini, best of luck, take it down.
With this hand by default we have ended up in middle ground and called. If we think utg range is very strong then I prefer the argument for folding rather than calling. I think we end up not really knowing where we are by calling and not sure what flops we will love multi way. I think if opener is super tight we should happily fold and if they are opening reasonably wide we can shove. In spots like this, if we get folds its massive for our stack.
Thanks for commenting mate, always good to get opinions from the best MTT players
Just late regged the mini UKOPS 15 £4k Bounty Hunter for £11
Just bust in 223rd, table was super tight and I hadn't opened a hand for ages ended up opening Q6s in the CO (don't usually open this on the button unless table is super tight like today never mind CO), over bet shoved river on paired board with missed flush draw and villain called with AK, board was KJ44x. Bad play on my part (villain was bound to have something after already calling 2 streets and the river didn't change much.
Certainly a couple of potential rant starters there Alan. BUT, you got it in good and thats all we can ever do. Just embrace the pain and move on my friend.
No reads or history with villain. I am calling anything from a 1/2 pot to pot size bet here on the river but when I am overbet shoved on for 2245bb into a pot of 60bb it just screams full house to me. Should I be calling this river against an unknown ?
Villain could well have AA - QJ which we dominate but, the flip side is he may have been set mining with a pr of 3s and flopped the world which I feel is more likely than any J x which boats him up.
The checkraise on the flop probably is an indication that he thinks hes really strong and your smooth call of a 3/4 pot turn bet might have made him rethink because that river shove smacks of just wanting to price you out. Certainly he must know hes never getting called by a worse hand and therefore the bet doesn't make sense. Surely if he has a full house its a 2/3 - full pot bet in order to get the most profit.
Im a terrible cash game player so this is all just how id read it from a mtt aspect.
Thanks for the replies, I did in fact fold as even though I hadn't played with villain before I hadn't seen him get out of line the few orbits I had played with him.
That is what I thought @TheEdge949 and I know we shouldn't put villains on specific hands and should put them on ranges but to me it felt so much like 33 or JT. The timing of the bets where instant also. (it was gut instinct that made me fold)
I am going to run it through that equilab or pokerstove now and see where I am at. (still learning how to use these like) but with @The_Don90 and @Donttelmum being better cash game players than myself I guess I should of called and if he shows up with a boat make a note of how the hand went down in the note box and take this into consideration in future hands.
TcTs,TdTs,ThTs,3c3s,3d3s,3h3s,AdJd,AhJh,AsJs,KcJc,QcJc,JcTc,Jd5d,Jh5h,Js5s,AdJc,AhJc,AsJc,KdJc,KhJc,KsJc,QdJc,QhJc,QsJc,JcTd - This is a broad range what villain could have when taking this line and against this range I have 60% equity.
On the river if there is already £2.50 in the pot and villain bets roughly £10 and I have roughly £5 (rounded up numbers for easier calculation) how often do I have to be write to call here ?
Can anyone who is decent at math show me how to work this out please ?
@The_Don90 and @Donttelmum - obviously you guys have played higher so what stakes does this not become a snap call ? Is it just because of the stakes I am playing and the fact that players at this stake are more than capable of going mad worse with worse Jacks ? Interested to hear what scenarios you may consider folding ?
Also do you guys ever throw math out the window and just go with your gut feeling sometime ?
And do you ever just call because the math says so even though you think you are beat ? I mean you hear it all the time when people make a bad call don't you "I had to call, I was priced in"
Is this an actual thing or is it just bad players justifying bad calls ?
I expanded villains ranges a little bit more to include hands like 55 or TT that he could of possibly been making a play with and hit lucky on the turn or river as I actually see this a lot when passive players who like to do a lot of limping see me raising quote often it seems to tilt some of them into making silly aggressive plays to try and make a stand.
Comments
If I am getting 2-1 on a call what equity do I need to have to make it a profitable call ? 33% breakeven more or less ? (sorry if I sound like a total donk)
I really like the way you have put your point across and it makes total sense. With me being mainly a cash game player one of my big leaks when playing MTTs is not taking full notice of stack sizes, and knowing roughly how many BB myself and others have. (alternating plays depending on SPR also baffles me a bit)
I tend to just go with the lesser variance approach unless I am really sure I have the best hand which I understand in the long run will cost me a lot of chips by not pushing my edge.
Tempted to play the 4 mini UKOPS again tonight to see how I do and see if yesterdays results where just run good rather than play good.
No mate if I am being honest playing them everyday would drive me insane. I much prefer the fast paced action in cash games however when you have been playing cash games everyday for a while a MTT can be a nice change.
Might start trying to satellite into the Sunday main every week but that is probably as far as it will go apart from the odd low stakes MTT when I fancy a change.
Just remembered why I am not a big fan of MTTs lol - This hand bust me out of the deep stack event
The checkraise on the flop probably is an indication that he thinks hes really strong and your smooth call of a 3/4 pot turn bet might have made him rethink because that river shove smacks of just wanting to price you out. Certainly he must know hes never getting called by a worse hand and therefore the bet doesn't make sense. Surely if he has a full house its a 2/3 - full pot bet in order to get the most profit.
Im a terrible cash game player so this is all just how id read it from a mtt aspect.
Mark
He's probably not bluffing very often but without reads, he might be a maniac and we beat some value.
That is what I thought @TheEdge949 and I know we shouldn't put villains on specific hands and should put them on ranges but to me it felt so much like 33 or JT. The timing of the bets where instant also. (it was gut instinct that made me fold)
I am going to run it through that equilab or pokerstove now and see where I am at. (still learning how to use these like) but with @The_Don90 and @Donttelmum being better cash game players than myself I guess I should of called and if he shows up with a boat make a note of how the hand went down in the note box and take this into consideration in future hands.
On the river if there is already £2.50 in the pot and villain bets roughly £10 and I have roughly £5 (rounded up numbers for easier calculation) how often do I have to be write to call here ?
Can anyone who is decent at math show me how to work this out please ?
@The_Don90 and @Donttelmum - obviously you guys have played higher so what stakes does this not become a snap call ? Is it just because of the stakes I am playing and the fact that players at this stake are more than capable of going mad worse with worse Jacks ? Interested to hear what scenarios you may consider folding ?
And do you ever just call because the math says so even though you think you are beat ? I mean you hear it all the time when people make a bad call don't you "I had to call, I was priced in"
Is this an actual thing or is it just bad players justifying bad calls ?
Here's what equilab come up with anyway: