I am confident the first 80% of my recent bad run was, generally, down to running brutally bad.
The last 20%, however, has been at least 50% poorer (than usual) play and 50% running poorly.
That's a lot of percentages. All completely plucked from thin air, of course - but you understand my meaning.
At first glance, I probably appear a very loose player, perhaps even loose-passive; the kind of player referred to as a "mushroom" in my neck of the woods.
However, on close inspection, I'm just pretty unorthodox, a "mixer-upper", for want of a better phrase.
In the past couple of months on here, I've been accused of being "the biggest nit on the site" and "the biggest station on Sky". They cannot both be correct, can they? It turns out, neither are.
It's all by design, of course. After all, as Confucius, or possibly Roger "Verbal" Kint, once said; the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
The last few days has seen me play, at best, more loosely than usual or, at worst, at times, recklessly.
Thankfully, this was something I seem to have shaken off as, in the Freeroll earlier, it felt like the old me, again.
The same can be said with my first MTT of the night, a £11 BH (£1,000). Although I failed to cash, again, I was happy with my decisions.
Then how did I manage to crash out, then? I hear you ask.
Player
Action
Cards
Amount
Pot
Balance
SzaryPolak
Small blind
30.00
30.00
875.00
DivsDreams
Big blind
60.00
90.00
5315.00
Your hole cards
J
A
bustout44
Fold
Armyburger
Fold
mushroom1
Raise
180.00
270.00
2120.00
liverlee
Call
180.00
450.00
3850.00
SzaryPolak
Fold
DivsDreams
Call
120.00
570.00
5195.00
Flop
J
8
2
DivsDreams
Check
mushroom1
Bet
570.00
1140.00
1550.00
liverlee
Call
570.00
1710.00
3280.00
DivsDreams
Fold
Turn
A
mushroom1
All-in
1550.00
3260.00
0.00
liverlee
Call
1550.00
4810.00
1730.00
mushroom1
Show
J
A
liverlee
Show
A
7
River
4
liverlee
Win
Flush to the Ace
4810.00
6540.00
One more MTT tonight, the Reload, after which I must get back to tomorrow's racecards.
Not sure about yourselves, but tomorrow is arguably my least anticipated Champions Day.
The ground is a big factor and, as a result, tomorrow is really just a day of speculative and medium strength fancies.
I was hoping to see Lady In France in the Sprint (who I backed in the l'Abbaye) as I believe she is worth another crack at 6f. Starman is a horse I like, and one that could easily go to the top of the division, the ground is an unknown tomorrow, however.
As much as I love John Gosden, Palace Pier appears very short for the QEII and I can't resist taking him on. Nazeef is unbeaten at a mile, will handle the ground and I think she's still improving. Thought she was worth chancing at the price.
A few days ago, I played Roseman ante-post at 25/1. He looked over priced on lines through Circus Maximus and Century Dream and was impressive on his sole start on heavy ground. I felt he could be a 14/1-16/1 on the day, so was surprised to see him trade bigger than the ante-post price I shrewdly secured earlier this week.
Lancaster House's poor run last time was a mystery but, were it not for that disappointment, he would not be a 100/1 shot, here. He could outrun those odds, if returning to form. Of course, it takes a leap of faith to forgive his dismal effort last time, but one must make some allowances when taking100/1.
This is the first Balmoral Handicap for some time where I've not held a strong opinion. As I said a few posts back, I had a small interest on Ropey Guest ante-post at 50/1. He's ran well at the Royal meeting in 2018 and 2019 and appears overpriced on those efforts. The same can be said about Symbolize at 66/1, who is closely weighted with Ropey Guest on this years Jersey form.
There doesn't seem much pace in the race, what little there is could come from stalls 5-8. Coming from stalls 1 and 3, It's possible that Ropey Guest and Symbolize could benefit from this. Though, on the Ascot straight course, it is impossible to second-guess possible tactics from jockeys.
The Reload was pretty insignificant. I finished in 44th place.
I was card/situation dead for most of the tournament and was, ultimately, blinded away. This is something I rarely allow to happen but my hands were truly tied thoughout.
Allowing yourself to be blinded away is unforgivable, so I wanted to ensure my my opportunities were as I remembered, so I checked my entire hand history for the tournament.
I was dealt a total of 79 hands. My best five hands were...
JJ AQs AJs AJo AJo
These titans were followed by A5s, A3s (x2), KQo and KJs - all bar the KQ were forced into the much pre-flop.
There were no other pairs, no other Aces and no other hands containing two "paints".
Sure, there were a few hands such as JTs, Q9s, K4s, T8s (these being worthy of mention further proof of how slim were the pickings), but there never seemed to be a genuine opportunity to play them.
I ended up shoving one of the aforementioned monsters (Ace-Jack suited) with just three big-blinds and was looked up by a big stack with King-Ten off.
Sadly, I could not hold and failed to increase my stack from titchy to meager.
In better news, I am on a DYM streak of five at £2.20 level.
In other news, I have just remembered that DYM streak week is over.
I am the subject of, yet another, sick karmic joke and one that would fit snugly into the lyrics of Alanis Morissette's mistitled song about Murphy's Law.
In a quest for more diary fodder, I have late-reg'ed for the £5 Turbo that started at 1:30.
As for Champions Day, looks like a day to keep the powder dry imo, though I may have to have a speculative dabble in the Balmoral after first seeing what the ground is doing.
Comments
As usual with my crucial hands, I receive a soft call and no justice.
Just the Mega now and, currently, I couldn't be less enthused.
Well, lucky in the fact of being the right side of a cooler, to be more specific.
I shall accept this as Fate's first repayment of the huge debt I am owed.
For a few seconds I was folding, then for a split-second I was calling. Ultimately, I decided to make a stand on, what had become, a tricky table.
The raiser had been very active previously and is good enough to make this bet without the the Ace.
All this said, it's very doubtful I would've played the hand this way a week or two ago.
My average MTT ROI is 49% so never experienced a consistently poor run as this.
Due to other work, I am playing fewer games per night, this month. Perhaps I need to get back to 5-6 tournaments a night.
And did you not even read my comments on this exact post?
"Moment of madness"
"It's very doubtful I would...."
This was NOT a "WWYD" post. Pay attention.
Keep posting. Bink incomin
I enjoyed a relatively deep run, but ultimately crashed out in 26th.
This hand, that would've put me in a top-3 position had I held up, was the killer...
The last 20%, however, has been at least 50% poorer (than usual) play and 50% running poorly.
That's a lot of percentages. All completely plucked from thin air, of course - but you understand my meaning.
At first glance, I probably appear a very loose player, perhaps even loose-passive; the kind of player referred to as a "mushroom" in my neck of the woods.
However, on close inspection, I'm just pretty unorthodox, a "mixer-upper", for want of a better phrase.
In the past couple of months on here, I've been accused of being "the biggest nit on the site" and "the biggest station on Sky". They cannot both be correct, can they? It turns out, neither are.
It's all by design, of course. After all, as Confucius, or possibly Roger "Verbal" Kint, once said; the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
The last few days has seen me play, at best, more loosely than usual or, at worst, at times, recklessly.
Thankfully, this was something I seem to have shaken off as, in the Freeroll earlier, it felt like the old me, again.
The same can be said with my first MTT of the night, a £11 BH (£1,000). Although I failed to cash, again, I was happy with my decisions.
Then how did I manage to crash out, then? I hear you ask.
I have an excellent chance of picking up an early bounty at the start of the freezeout period.
Surely Fate doesn't hate me to the point that I will be denied this small offering?
Not sure about yourselves, but tomorrow is arguably my least anticipated Champions Day.
The ground is a big factor and, as a result, tomorrow is really just a day of speculative and medium strength fancies.
I was hoping to see Lady In France in the Sprint (who I backed in the l'Abbaye) as I believe she is worth another crack at 6f. Starman is a horse I like, and one that could easily go to the top of the division, the ground is an unknown tomorrow, however.
As much as I love John Gosden, Palace Pier appears very short for the QEII and I can't resist taking him on. Nazeef is unbeaten at a mile, will handle the ground and I think she's still improving. Thought she was worth chancing at the price.
A few days ago, I played Roseman ante-post at 25/1. He looked over priced on lines through Circus Maximus and Century Dream and was impressive on his sole start on heavy ground. I felt he could be a 14/1-16/1 on the day, so was surprised to see him trade bigger than the ante-post price I shrewdly secured earlier this week.
Lancaster House's poor run last time was a mystery but, were it not for that disappointment, he would not be a 100/1 shot, here. He could outrun those odds, if returning to form. Of course, it takes a leap of faith to forgive his dismal effort last time, but one must make some allowances when taking100/1.
This is the first Balmoral Handicap for some time where I've not held a strong opinion. As I said a few posts back, I had a small interest on Ropey Guest ante-post at 50/1. He's ran well at the Royal meeting in 2018 and 2019 and appears overpriced on those efforts. The same can be said about Symbolize at 66/1, who is closely weighted with Ropey Guest on this years Jersey form.
There doesn't seem much pace in the race, what little there is could come from stalls 5-8. Coming from stalls 1 and 3, It's possible that Ropey Guest and Symbolize could benefit from this. Though, on the Ascot straight course, it is impossible to second-guess possible tactics from jockeys.
Any strong fancies yourselves?
I was card/situation dead for most of the tournament and was, ultimately, blinded away. This is something I rarely allow to happen but my hands were truly tied thoughout.
Allowing yourself to be blinded away is unforgivable, so I wanted to ensure my my opportunities were as I remembered, so I checked my entire hand history for the tournament.
I was dealt a total of 79 hands. My best five hands were...
JJ
AQs
AJs
AJo
AJo
These titans were followed by A5s, A3s (x2), KQo and KJs - all bar the KQ were forced into the much pre-flop.
There were no other pairs, no other Aces and no other hands containing two "paints".
Sure, there were a few hands such as JTs, Q9s, K4s, T8s (these being worthy of mention further proof of how slim were the pickings), but there never seemed to be a genuine opportunity to play them.
I ended up shoving one of the aforementioned monsters (Ace-Jack suited) with just three big-blinds and was looked up by a big stack with King-Ten off.
Sadly, I could not hold and failed to increase my stack from titchy to meager.
In better news, I am on a DYM streak of five at £2.20 level.
In other news, I have just remembered that DYM streak week is over.
I am the subject of, yet another, sick karmic joke and one that would fit snugly into the lyrics of Alanis Morissette's mistitled song about Murphy's Law.
In a quest for more diary fodder, I have late-reg'ed for the £5 Turbo that started at 1:30.
Sadly, I bubbled in this lovely blind-on-blind three-handed coup.
Ha, a most entertaining read.
As for Champions Day, looks like a day to keep the powder dry imo, though I may have to have a speculative dabble in the Balmoral after first seeing what the ground is doing.