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What would you do ? ..... or what should you do ?

MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,281
edited October 2023 in Poker Chat
Mr HAYES @HAYSIE and myself have been having a little discussion about whether you should be CALLING a SHOVE with Q-Q

This was from last night's 6pm Semi to the 20K Main

I had 10,365 chips ....Blinds 400/800 (so x13 BB's) ..... I was in 4th or 5th place with 15 seats available and 18 players left

I got dealt Q-Q ........but memfno (who I have a note or two on) SHOVED

What would you do ?

....or more importantly WHAT SHOULD YOU DO ?

@FeelGroggy , @Essexphil , @destinycod , @chrisdonkb , @StayOrGo , @Itsover4u , @bbMike , @Arrogant , @Natnug , @glencoelad ('coz I know you know about satellite play from Dara O'Kierney's book) , @bigfatfish , @stack_u , @Alvez11

@ ALL the good players who know far more than me

If it was a BOUNTY HUNTER I'm calling all day long ........but in a satellite, I know it's a very different scenario, especially as I was in quite a strong position...... and if I'd CALLED and LOST, I would have dropped into bottom 3 places
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
FormosinaSmall blind400.00400.0016510.00
flop2hardBig blind800.001200.004040.00
Your hole cards
  • Q
  • Q
TommyDFold
memfnoAll-in6350.007550.000.00
RashnikovFold
MISTY4MEFold
FormosinaFold
flop2hardFold
memfnoMuck
memfnoWin2000.002000.00
memfnoReturn5550.000.007550.00
«13456716

Comments

  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 8,981
    He Who Runs Away with three to go will know if he was right or wrong.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,658
    edited October 2023
    5/18, 15 seats.

    Fold. All day long. You have about a 90% chance of qualifying if you fold.

    If you call and win? Probably 95%. Call and lose? Probably 60%. Which is why it is a fold. You are probably only 65/35 to win v his range. Think KK is a fold, and AA is close, but probably a fold too (though I would probably make an iffy call with AA)

    In an MTT, it is obviously a call/reshove.
  • MAXALLYMAXALLY Member Posts: 17,607
    What would I do?



















    Ask @Tikay10 to move this to poker chat/clinic ;)
  • goldongoldon Member Posts: 8,981
    Railers have feeling you know......and opinions.... Haysie will send him PM to say

    He was right....hic!
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,281
    MAXALLY said:

    What would I do?







    Ask @Tikay10 to move this to poker chat/clinic ;)

    Sorry ALAN .....please can you move this to Poker Chat Tony @Tikay10 o:)
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,281
    edited October 2023
    Very remiss of me, but I also forgot to ask The Ambassador @NChanning ....... B)

    What would / should you do Neil .....Tho' I know you don't really play Sat's
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 168,715
    MISTY4ME said:

    MAXALLY said:

    What would I do?







    Ask @Tikay10 to move this to poker chat/clinic ;)

    Sorry ALAN .....please can you move this to Poker Chat Tony @Tikay10 o:)
    @MISTY4ME


    Done.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,517
    edited October 2023
    Essexphil said:

    5/18, 15 seats.

    Fold. All day long. You have about a 90% chance of qualifying if you fold.

    If you call and win? Probably 95%. Call and lose? Probably 60%. Which is why it is a fold. You are probably only 65/35 to win v his range. Think KK is a fold, and AA is close, but probably a fold too (though I would probably make an iffy call with AA)

    In an MTT, it is obviously a call/reshove.

    I might be in the minority here.
    I am calling all day long.
    The reason I am saying that, is firstly, the shover has less than 8 bigs, and therefore quite a wide range.
    Secondly the next blind level is 600/1200.
    Therefore Mistys stack becomes 8 bigs, and shove or fold mode.
    With this in mind QQ is too big a hand to waste.

    To add perspective.
    Misty busted out a couple of hands later.
    The blinds were 600/1200.
    He was down to just less than 8k in chips.
    So less than 7 bigs.
    The same guy shoved with exactly the same size stack, and A6o.
    Misty called with AA, and lost.
    2815 chips left.
  • River_FoxRiver_Fox Member Posts: 123
    not a pro or anything but I’d fold, no need to take that risk for half your chips even though you’re likely ahead
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,281
    As HAYSIE said ...... Ten hands later I got A-Aces

    Though the circumstances were much different.....

    I was still in Top 6 or 7 or so, 17 players left ......but this time memfno SHOVED on my 1200 BB

    Sadly I was very unlucky and got T'RIVERWaddyd :/:'(:'(
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    RashnikovSmall blind600.00600.008297.50
    MISTY4MEBig blind1200.001800.007965.00
    Your hole cards
    • A
    • A
    FormosinaFold
    flop2hardFold
    TommyDFold
    memfnoAll-in6350.008150.000.00
    RashnikovFold
    MISTY4MEAll-in7965.0016115.000.00
    MISTY4MEUnmatched bet2815.0013300.002815.00
    MISTY4MEShow
    • A
    • A
    memfnoShow
    • 6
    • A
    Flop
    • 6
    • 3
    • 7
    Turn
    • 2
    River
    • 6
    memfnoWinThree 6s13300.0013300.00
  • TheWaddyTheWaddy Member Posts: 1,592
    with 15 places and 17 left and you in the top 6 or 7.... you know you should be folding... even with real cards.... maybe, just maybe, you have learnt something from losing with AA to A6 in this instance....

    PS you would have lost with QQ to ace rag too!

    You have to recognise when its setting you up for a big fall.......
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,281
    TheWaddy said:

    with 15 places and 17 left and you in the top 6 or 7.... you know you should be folding... even with real cards....

    maybe, just maybe, you have learnt something from losing with AA to A6 in this instance....

    PS you would have lost with QQ to ace rag too!

    You have to recognise when its setting you up for a big fall.......
    The only thing I've learnt is that I was very unlucky in this instance.

    Whilst ever there are cards in the pack that enable you to lose from a strong position ......you can lose.

    I'd had a bit of GOOD LUCK previously just getting into the Top 5

    .....so , as ever........

    Some you WIN........Some you LOSE

    HAPPY POKERing :)
  • mumsiemumsie Member Posts: 7,925
    When you have AA , just before you shove, try logging out and back in again to change the outcome.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,517
    mumsie said:

    When you have AA , just before you shove, try logging out and back in again to change the outcome.

    To do this you would have to pre-suppose that you were going to lose.
    You could also be turning a win into a loss.
    Or even a loss into another loss.
  • HUGHMANSHUGHMANS Member Posts: 130
    Interesting one. I think the crux is made by Haysie. In a few more hands your stack would be less than 10 BBs and then you are shoving all day. If you were first to act you prob wouldve shoved (?). Call is the only play imo, weak endorsement that might be tho coming from a seasoned fool like me.
  • PKRParPKRPar Member Posts: 2,240
    8bbs is tons if your still 4th or 5th out of 17 with 15 paid...
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,517
    edited October 2023
    Forgetting about the aces hand for a minute.
    I wonder how many players would be kicking themselves after folding the queens, when they found themselves 10 hands later, with almost two and a half thousand less chips, blinds at 600/1200, so less than 7 bigs behind, with 17 runners still in, the blinds just about to increase to 800/1600, therefore less than 5 bigs, and wished they had called with the queens.
  • Jac35Jac35 Member Posts: 6,491
    It’s a fold
  • MISTY4MEMISTY4ME Member Posts: 6,281
    edited November 2023
    Cheers Graham @StayOrGo

    Really good insight into Satellite play.

    Because I have to play more satellites to try to get in to Bigger Tourneys, I think I have quite a good record, and understand some, but defo not all of what I should do.

    Any advice is really helpful ......and hopefully other low stakes players appreciate it too.

    Keep advice coming please

    ..... I'm sure I'll be posting more hands on here :)
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