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Markycash diary - It's been a while! Anyone up for Twitch?

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    Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited June 2016

    Only 4 cards can improve that hand and with the action before us it is likely that 2 of those are held by other players. AA99 rainbow is ok heads up either when deep enough to be able to get away from hand - or turn into a bluff as we have position post flop, or late on when any pot raise means we are playing for stacks. We dont really want to be going 3 or 4 way, especially all-in pre when we cannot protect v draws.

    ditto hendo's answers:

    Hand 1 - FOLD. UTG+1 and +2 appear to be playing for stacks - we have average stack - let them.
    Hand 2 - CALL. We are shorty with 6.5 bigs - time to gamble 
    Hand 3 - FOLD. sit back and wish for a non-split pot. Risk not worth the reward in a dym.

    Of the 3 I think 1 is the most marginal - depending on payout structure and how we are feeling at table, could see a case for a shove and expect 1 fold and hope for 2 to be HU. Even 3 handed we are still favourite for the hi and if there is no lo can still scoop, Probably about 40$ for the hi and 20% for a scoop? ICM might actually still say get it in pre 3 handed?
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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    I am with the majority here too...

    Hand 1:

    I think this depends on the player and by that I don't mean the opponent, I mean who is sitting with the AA99 rainbow. If you didn't feel you had any edge over the other players then I guess it is fine to 'gamble' here. The numbers as phantom alluded to would be quite close. There would be a ton of equity to gain and if you scooped the pot you would probably be chipleader or thereabouts. If you feel you had an edge over the other players then I would say it is a fold. There is a case for saying that even a player with an edge could call here as it may give them the chips to go on and take down the tourney but I think I am folding this one mostly.

    Hand 2:

    I would be bashing my call button here. We are too short to be so fussy that we fold here. If we are going to fold this then chances are the blinds will be going through us once or twice again while we wait on a 'suitable hand'. Chance to be right back in it and up/above the average stack size. If we lose then so be it, onto the next tourney.

    Hand 3:

    Again I am with the majority. I don't think there is any case at all for calling here. The numbers mean this is a pure gamble, a bit like flipping with AK versus a PP in a holdem DYM. By the time rake is considered a call here would be a long term losing play.

    I need to have a hunt and find the oh8 odds calculator I used to use.

    Thanks for the replies folks! Was interested to see what you would think of these 3 scenarios.
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    F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic Member Posts: 2,395
    edited June 2016
    http://propokertools.com/simulations is OK for seeing how are odds vary against different ranges.

    I don't play much PLO8 (much prefer PLO high!) but at first I agreed with you on the hands here. 1 I thought is close where our ability vs table could be an important factor. 2 is a trivial snap call.

    Hand 3 I thought was a trivial snap fold but then I ran some sims in PPT and we have 38.3% equity against a 3% and 5% range and we will only lose the whole pot 26% of the time, scoop it 24% and the rest of the time we will win the high part of the pot (only very occasionally splitting the high and tying the low) Then I thought that surely one of the players has to have AA given the action pre-flop - in which case our equity drops to just 27.5% and makes it a clear fold even regardless of any DYM factors (even in hand 2 we would have to fold with only that much equity as we need 28.3%)

    However, there's only 2 aces left in the deck. And whilst it seems like one of the players must have AA, it also seems hugely unlikely because one of the other 2 players must surely have an A in their hand to be raising or 3/4 betting in that position. eg. If we think 4b has AA, then that would mean UTG and UTG+1 don't have an A in their hand - the latter seeming very unlikely - I mean any good player has to surely have a hand like A2xx (maybe he has AKK2, AQQ2 or just A235ds) to be 3b an UTG opener in the first place.

    Thus, it seems like 99% of the time what's happened is UTG has opened with maybe a high card only non Ax hand (like some high DS rundown) and both UTG+1 and the next player have A2xx where we have 43% equity. Chance of going bust is only 20% in that case. 

    Seems to me like this will be very +ev even accounting ICM in a DYM. And makes hand 1 a snap call too.

    OTOH maybe UTG and UTG+1 are maniacs and the other guy is the only solid player who will always have AA. 

    Be interesting if this situation ever came up!
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    Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,542
    edited June 2016
    Hi ivan i will never argue with you about maths. I am not sure I understand your comment about tying the low? We can never have a lo here, do you mean there will be no lo hand?

    I believe that with that action both aces are probably out there and it is more likely to be in 2 hands not one. If they are in one hand then it is surely the 3rd raiser which actually could be hood news to be HU in 1 and 3.and dead  chips in the pot. Probably AA23ds or something v close and unless a 9 comes at best splitting. Very often quartered and at risk of busting.


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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary - Opinions from the OH8 players welcome on a few hand scenarios:
    http://propokertools.com/simulations is OK for seeing how are odds vary against different ranges. I don't play much PLO8 (much prefer PLO high!) but at first I agreed with you on the hands here. 1 I thought is close where our ability vs table could be an important factor. 2 is a trivial snap call. Hand 3 I thought was a trivial snap fold but then I ran some sims in PPT and we have 38.3% equity against a 3% and 5% range and we will only lose the whole pot 26% of the time, scoop it 24% and the rest of the time we will win the high part of the pot (only very occasionally splitting the high and tying the low) Then I thought that surely one of the players has to have AA given the action pre-flop - in which case our equity drops to just 27.5% and makes it a clear fold even regardless of any DYM factors (even in hand 2 we would have to fold with only that much equity as we need 28.3%) However, there's only 2 aces left in the deck. And whilst it seems like one of the players must have AA, it also seems hugely unlikely because one of the other 2 players must surely have an A in their hand to be raising or 3/4 betting in that position. eg. If we think 4b has AA, then that would mean UTG and UTG+1 don't have an A in their hand - the latter seeming very unlikely - I mean any good player has to surely have a hand like A2xx (maybe he has AKK2, AQQ2 or just A235ds) to be 3b an UTG opener in the first place. Thus, it seems like 99% of the time what's happened is UTG has opened with maybe a high card only non Ax hand (like some high DS rundown) and both UTG+1 and the next player have A2xx where we have 43% equity. Chance of going bust is only 20% in that case.  Seems to me like this will be very +ev even accounting ICM in a DYM. And makes hand 1 a snap call too. OTOH maybe UTG and UTG+1 are maniacs and the other guy is the only solid player who will always have AA.  Be interesting if this situation ever came up!
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Thanks for the link Ivan!

    In the OH8 DYM's ranges 'are usually' more polarised than OH8 MTT's (plenty exceptions obviously). Even at high stakes OH8 MTT's I have seen so many actions by players that leave you completely scratching your head trying to figure out what they see in their hands. I would still agree that in the MTT's both aces would usually be out but at least 1 opponent may have a totally random XXXX hand, you could on occassion easily see hands like KK23 QQ23 etc etc in the hands of one of these players or a random with 789t DS.

    I think that makes working the equity calculations out slightly more problematic with 1 or even 2 players possibly with very wide ranges. I know you can put in versus top x% of hands. I would be interested to see how much difference putting a crazily wide range for 1 player in makes to the numbers as this would probably hit the part of the deck we would ideally be hoping to see on the board.

    I also find that there can be bigger edges to exploit in OH8 MTT's than when compared to holdem. I would expect a solid but not exceptional OH8 MTT player to generally have much higher % roi than a solid but not exceptional NLHE MTT player. This obviously skews the % we are looking for to comfortably get it AIPF. When we get it AIPF we are losing this edge, the ability to pick up chips in certain spots with little risk or showdowns and most importantly IMO sneaking into freerolling or semi-freerolling spots where we can have very low risk shots at weak players stacks.

    In short and IMO, I don't doubt the figures you quote for a second but in OH8 MTT's I think it is fine to fold several +EV spots if you have a suitable edge/stack over your opponents and sneak cheaply into a lot of less favourable spots and pick up freeroll/semi-freerolling spots with less risk.

    In the DYM IMO the figures are a bit more interesting, as mentioned the ranges are 'a bit' more polarised and the numbers more relevant. I think edges would still impact calculations to a degree but obviously not the same extent as the most profitable DYM SNG players will be working with much finer margins than the most profitable OH8 MTT players.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,924
    edited June 2016

    I respect Ivan's view as to "they MUST have an Ace in their hand", & yes, they SHOULD have an Ace........

    The game never ceases to surprise, & you'd be amazed at some of the stuff players turn up with.

    It's simply beyond comprehension that we could get it in here without an Ace, but folks do strange things.....
     
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    bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,702
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary - Opinions from the OH8 players welcome on a few hand scenarios:
    I respect Ivan's view as to "they MUST have an Ace in their hand", & yes, they SHOULD have an Ace........ The game never ceases to surprise, & you'd be amazed at some of the stuff players turn up with. It's simply beyond comprehension that we could get it in here without an Ace, but folks do strange things.....  
    Posted by Tikay10
    I was playing a PLO8 tournament on another site recently, he potted it from the SB, he was quite 'active' so I repot AK23DS he pots again I shove he calls. Monster pot. Ace and King on flop but Mr Active scoops the lot with JJ22! Assigning ranges only really works sometimes!
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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    Just a quick update as I have went 'semi-AWOL' recently.

    Just over 4 weeks to go till Vegas! I am looking forward to this and have been slowly getting a little bankroll together for the trip. Have been taking care of stuff away from the poker tables but still playing some OH8 MTT's.

    The OH8 DYM traffic dropped when Tikay left for Vegas and to be honest I think I am more profitable in OH8 MTT's anyway so I got on with playing those. There are not really enough here to play so have been playing these elsewhere which have added an extra few hundred $'s onto the bankroll. Will also try and mix in some more games on Sky over the coming weeks.

    The WSOP event being played with Sky is the $1,111 NLHE event #69. This is actually one of the better structured games. The starting stacks are 10,000 chips with blind levels lasting 1 hour and starting at 25-50 so there is a little room to play. While out there I am hoping to play a reasonable amount of cash games. Would like to get in on Tikay's action at the 'Big O' (5 card PL OH8) cash tables at the Venetian and Rio. Probably at $1-$2 and if things go well maybe some forays into the $5 PL 'Big O' games. Would also like to play some $4-$8 Limit OH8 and some $2 NLHE at the Venetian. I broke about even at the $4-$8 Limit OH8 games last year but really ran quite poorly in most of the big pots I played so there is some unfinished business there :) Will see if I can fit a few small MTT's in while out there too.

    Hoping to catch up with a few friends in Vegas, some who stay there and some who will be out for the WSOP. As my dad is going on this trip as my +1 and he has never been to Vegas I am also hoping to hire a car, visit Lake Mead and some of the attractions off the strip (and those on it) and let him see what Vegas is like overall. He doesn't like the heat and sun so it could be interesting as we will be in one of the warmest spots on the globe slap bang in the middle of summer! He does love his poker though so I am sure he will have a blast.

    Will try and give plenty of updates from Vegas when I go and post any interesting hand histories and a few pics etc.

    As ever, thanks for reading and good luck on the tables!

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    weecheez1weecheez1 Member Posts: 1,680
    edited June 2016
    Run well marky hope your trip is profitable for you and your dad enjoys himself gl gl gl 
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    churchy18churchy18 Member Posts: 1,853
    edited June 2016
    hope you have a great time in vegas mark and run well
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    EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,067
    edited June 2016
    Hope you have a great time-Lake Mead is stunning-mind you, so are some sights on the Strip!
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,924
    edited June 2016

    Morning Marky.

    1) Take your Dad up to Mount Charlston if he does not enjoy the heat - it is 30f cooler up there compared to the Strip, & is perfectly lovely, & the scenery up in the mountains is very similar to the West Highlands of Scotland. They even have snow on the mountain tops, even now, in June. It's a 35 minute drive from the Strip. 

    2) You MUST play the $1 $2 Big O Cash game @ Rio, you will need to run real bad not to make a profit. The game plays a bit odd - it is a $5 bring-in, but it is almost always button straddled to $10, (effectively, $1 chips don't play except for posting blinds) & that generally elicits 5 or 5 callers, so position & starting hand selection are VERY important. Most players are extremely passive, so if you can keep hitting that pot button pre, you will take them right out of their comfort zone. I honestly think you will beat that game handsomely, especially if you find a "good" table.
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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    Thanks guys, very much appreciated!

    @Tikay, thanks for that.

    I saw you mention Mount Charlston before, was that the monster butterfly place?. Has a perusal at the resort website and it looks lovely. Will probably take a trip up there and have breakfast one morning.

    I guess the $10 BTN straddle is at the $5 PL Big O? Passive is always good :D A nice aggressive edge in position with the ability to get away from rough spots usually works well in those set ups.

    Hope you are having a nice time mate and GL in your upcoming games, hopefully some decent binkage for you soon.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,924
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary:
    Thanks guys, very much appreciated! @Tikay, thanks for that. I saw you mention Mount Charlston before, was that the monster butterfly place?. Has a perusal at the resort website and it looks lovely. Will probably take a trip up there and have breakfast one morning. I guess the $10 BTN straddle is at the $5 PL Big O? Passive is always good :D A nice aggressive edge in position with the ability to get away from rough spots usually works well in those set ups. Hope you are having a nice time mate and GL in your upcoming games, hopefully some decent binkage for you soon.
    Posted by markycash
    Not Mt Charlston Resort, that is half a mile before Mt Charlston LODGE, & is perfectly awful. You want Mt Charlston LODGE.

    No, the $10 button straddle is the $1-$2 game. Don't ask, don't argue, it's perfectly bizarre, but that's how it plays, as $1 chips don't play except for SB & BB, & any limpers have to limp for $5 (assuming it is not straddled, which is very rare).
     
    It causes a lot of arguments, understandably, but once the button is placed in front of you, & before the deal takes place, just stick $10 on the Dealer Button, & that'll be allowed. The SB & BB now act first pre-flop, both usually call, plus 2 or 3 others. So when it gets back to us on the Button, we can usually make it $50 or $60, which soon sorts the men from the boys.     
     
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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary:
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary : Not Mt Charlston Resort, that is half a mile before Mt Charlston LODGE, & is perfectly awful. You want Mt Charlston LODGE. No, the $10 button straddle is the $1-$2 game. Don't ask, don't argue, it's perfectly bizarre, but that's how it plays, as $1 chips don't play except for SB & BB, & any limpers have to limp for $5 (assuming it is not straddled, which is very rare).   It causes a lot of arguments, understandably, but once the button is placed in front of you, & before the deal takes place, just stick $10 on the Dealer Button, & that'll be allowed. The SB & BB now act first pre-flop, both usually call, plus 2 or 3 others. So when it gets back to us on the Button, we can usually make it $50 or $60, which soon sorts the men from the boys.       
    Posted by Tikay10
    Ah okay, the whole area looks lovely. Not sure how I have managed to miss this one, even when staying out there for a few months... The trip advisor reviews are excellent for it too!

    I dread to think how crazy it gets at the $5 Big O then lol. I know even at the $4-$8 OH8 limit games it got a bit crazy last year with double straddles and several folk having a bicker about it. I just tend to roll with whatever they want to do, watch what they are all up to and adapt to the dynamics as best as possible :)

    Thanks again!

    Edit: Found the lodge now. The setting looks amazing.
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    Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 160,924
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary:
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary : Ah okay, the whole area looks lovely. Not sure how I have managed to miss this one, even when staying out there for a few months... The trip advisor reviews are excellent for it too! I dread to think how crazy it gets at the $5 Big O then lol. I know even at the $4-$8 OH8 limit games it got a bit crazy last year with double straddles and several folk having a bicker about it. I just tend to roll with whatever they want to do, watch what they are all up to and adapt to the dynamics as best as possible :) Thanks again!
    Posted by markycash
    Agreed. I do fancy a shot at the $5 game, but I fear it would get too big, too quickly, for me.

    The so-called $1 $2 game has a max pull up of $500, & my personal discipline is to sit down with $1,000 in my pocket - $500 to buy-in, & one pull-up behind. It's too easy to sit down with a few thou behind, run bad, & before you know it, you are $2k or $3k down.
     
    At $1,000 max, I don't play scared, but if the game gets bigger, I don't enjoy it, or play my best. 

    I think you'd be fine at the $5 game, though if you start with one bad night, then that spoils the trip - the worst place in the gaming world to be skinto is Vegas.
     
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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary:
    In Response to Re: Markycash diary : Agreed. I do fancy a shot at the $5 game, but I fear it would get too big, too quickly, for me. The so-called $1 $2 game has a max pull up of $500, & my personal discipline is to sit down with $1,000 in my pocket - $500 to buy-in, & one pull-up behind. It's too easy to sit down with a few thou behind, run bad, & before you know it, you are $2k or $3k down.   At $1,000 max, I don't play scared, but if the game gets bigger, I don't enjoy it, or play my best.  I think you'd be fine at the $5 game, though if you start with one bad night, then that spoils the trip - the worst place in the gaming world to be skinto is Vegas.  
    Posted by Tikay10
    Wise words.

    I will come up with some limits for myself, I usually only take whatever cash out of the hotel room that I am prepared to lose.
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    GlenelgGlenelg Member Posts: 6,554
    edited June 2016
    Good luck in LV  MC
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    markycashmarkycash Member Posts: 2,837
    edited June 2016
    Thanks Glen!

    Quick update...

    Haven't been updating as I haven't been playing very much. Had a lot of stuff going on away from the tables and decided to take on a few short term work committments away from the tables to get some extra pennies so I can play some cash games over in Vegas. Decided to squeeze a few games in tonight and played 6 OH8 DYM's and donked my way to 5 cashes out of the 6.

    The games are not the same with Tikay away hoovering chips up in Vegas, obviously it is a harder job cashing in the games when he is here but the games just don't start regular enough when he is away. The £11 & £16.50 games do not really get going at all... Also quite a few tough tables, even at the lower levels, when I have looked lately. Weecheez playing a good few games when I have looked in and he is playing some brilliant poker!

    Not long to go till the Vegas exploits start, under 2 weeks now! Reading all the WSOP updates and Tikay's blog updates have me itching to get over. Will be nice to meet some of the Sky players and staff and put names to faces. Will do a good few updates from over there win, lose or draw. I think the event we are playing had just over 4k entrants last year so I will try and play a bunch of tourneys online with a similar amount of entrants before I go just to try and get myself paced for that kind of field size. It isn't perfect preparation as online is obviously faster (as in more hands dealt) but it cannot do any harm.

    Also hoping to fit at least a little drop more games in here over the next week and a half. Really enjoyed firing a few DYM's up tonight after a break for them, fealt more focused and seem to have had a bit of a reset which was needed.

    Only 12 days and 11 hours & 56 minutes (not that I am counting) till I get to head off and see if I can scoop up a few chips up that Tikay might have missed and have a bit of fun!

    Thanks for reading and hope you are all running golden on the tables.
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    VespaPXVespaPX Member Posts: 12,032
    edited June 2016
    GL in LV Mark
    Run golden but more importantly ............ enjoy!
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