Its like Britain had a referendum on whether PIGS can fly.The remainers said Pigs cannot fly and Brexiters said PIGS can fly. They had a vote and the people voted for PIGS to fly.The Brexiteers spent 2 years trying to make Pigs fly.They then gave up and handed the problem to Mrs May.Her solution was a mechanical pig.But the technology was 20 years away. Mr Mogg however said its not a real PIG and his solution was to fire the PIG out of a cannon. The PIG crash landed and died a slow and painful death.
Freddie P 4 months ago
Big mistake guys, starting by introducing yourselves as experts, experienced travellers and international traders; Brexiteers stopped the video immediately.
Ufthak 5 months ago
48% tariffs on grated cheese. Make Britain grate again!
James Chambers 5 months ago
Well done Gents, very refreshing, and deeply disturbing, to hear the stark reality of the situation. Until now it's been pretty much James O'Brien alone who's been delivering facts, something the country desperately needs a lot more of.
ParcelOf Rogue 5 months ago
My own experiences as a small niche manufacturer, exporter and importer bears this out. We are being governed by know nothing buffoons.
Chadwick Hall 5 months ago
These guys are honestly discussing the situation in an intellectual and common-sense manner, yet still the Brexit believers making comments here don’t get it! They view Brexit like a fanatical religion, they would rather destroy the country than give up their blind faith.
John Smith 5 months ago
You can tell this is a brilliant, detailed well reasoned video because the comment section is full of brexiteers who had to turn it off.
Denis Loretto 4 months ago
I have read as many as I could of the comments submitted below. There are quite a few muttering "project fear" or "remoaners" and the like but I have not seen one which even tries to counter any of the practical points made by the three blokes in the pub. Come on brexiteers. If none of you can come up with even some answers I reckon we all need to be out on the next march for a people's vote. The one in London is on Saturday October 20 I understand.
MaghrebinischLaut 5 months ago
This is the best video on Brexit I've watched in months. Granted, not a difficult achievement, given how much incredible jingoistic nonsense there is on the topic here on YouTube but I've enjoyed listening to an interesting discussion among three people who actually know what they're talking about.
OM Selection 5 months ago
Brexiteer converted. Many thanks boys!
because it's not right 4 months ago
Absolutely terrifying the issues you have raised ...brilliant work chaps.....i fear civil unrest....if the masses become hungry this is a serious and dangerous self inflicted situation shame on boris Johnson and Cameron
No idea why you are quoting me and exactly what this video or the other one has to do with my comment about a 2nd referendum ..perhaps you could explain .
On January 6 a survey by polling firm YouGov showed that if a referendum were held immediately, 46 per cent would vote to remain, 39 per cent would vote to leave, and the rest either did not know, would not vote, or refused to answer the question
No idea why you are quoting me and exactly what this video or the other one has to do with my comment about a 2nd referendum ..perhaps you could explain .
This video illustrates the difficulties posed by a no deal Brexit, and also the pathetic preparations that the Government is making. This particular video refers to a test conducted by the Government, on preparations for dealing with hold ups because of Customs Checks in Kent. There were supposed to have been 150 lorries turning up, 88 and a bin lorry actually turned up, and they did their little test. Some people might have considered this a bit silly, when the actual number of lorries going through every day is 12,000. A transport export on one of the other videos, estimated that we would require around 8,000 Customs Officers to carry out the required checks. We currently have 200, and it takes 5 years to properly train one. A no deal Brexit in March will be a disaster, and another referendum may be the only alternative.
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
On January 6 a survey by polling firm YouGov showed that if a referendum were held immediately, 46 per cent would vote to remain, 39 per cent would vote to leave, and the rest either did not know, would not vote, or refused to answer the question
The Peoples Vote Campaigners have been pointing to this trend for the last couple of months.
It seems that the support for a second referendum is increasing, as is the support for Remaining, as we get closer to the March Deadline, and Parliament seems unable to resolve the situation.
After watching "Brexit The Uncivil War", I am certain that if they got Dominic Cummings to run the Remain Campaign, we would be staying in.
A second referendum will obviously not be popular with everyone, but would provide a solution
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
Just to add to the above , 2nd referendum possible options : Most referendums offer voters a binary choice between two options. In the case of Brexit, there are at least three possible outcomes: Theresa May’s deal, Brexit with no deal, or remaining in the EU after all.
A second referendum could in principle be held as a straight choice between two of these options: for instance Deal vs No Deal, or Deal vs Remain. In this case, whichever option won more votes would be implemented. This approach would naturally be opposed by those who support the third, excluded option.
If a referendum were held that includes all three options then there are different ways to determine the result. The simplest approach would be to allow each voter to vote for their favoured option, with the most popular choice declared the victor. This could lead, however, to an option being implemented without support of a majority of voters.
To avoid this, voters could rank their choices in order of preference. The least popular first choice would be eliminated, and its votes reallocated based on second preferences. This would ensure that the successful option gained over 50% of first and second preferences.
Finally, the referendum could include two separate questions. Question 1 could ask whether voters wish to Leave or Remain, as in 2016. Question 2 could ask voters to select between the two different models of Brexit, if there is still a pro-Leave majority.
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
What would your solution be?
Crikey ...I cant solve Brexit before I've had my second cup of coffee . Personally , now we are in this mess , I think the politicians have to support Mays deal and make it work ...although it's far from satisfactory . Hardly a solution , I know . Perhaps drag Cameron away from his cosy little existence and force him to sort out the mess he's created
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
I don't buy this. If they can get The Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament, we will end up with a deal without having a second referendum. Therefore your point A becomes invalid, because that may well happen anyway. The electorate currently have no right to choose what sort of deal we opt for. Parliament are going to decide, assuming they are able to. I think that the reaction to Remain winning a second referendum will pale into insignificance in comparison to a No Deal Brexit, and thousands of people losing their jobs.
This is where we are now.
Parliament vote on The Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday. If it was passed we move on to the trade negotiations with the EU. This will result in a deal of some sort, after years of negotiations. We would then move into a Transition Period in March, where our trading arrangements would remain the same as they are now, until Dec 2020. From Jan 2021 our new trading arrangements would take effect. However if these new arrangements are not in place by then, we would be able to extend The Transition Period, or move into The Backstop, until the new trading arrangements had been finalised.
The problem is that The Withdrawal Agreement wont get through Parliament.
By law we leave The EU in March. So assuming The Withdrawal Agreement fails to get through Parliament, we go over the famous cliff into the chaos of a No Deal Brexit.
The only thing that there seems to be a majority for in Parliament is the avoidance of a No Deal Brexit, because of the implications.
There can be no trade negotiations with the EU, without a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement must have a Backstop. The Irish border arrangements are the reason why The Backstop will never get through. The other deals on offer will also require a Backstop.
The problem in Parliament is purely about The Backstop, and not about any particular deal. The suggestions regarding the different deals that could be negotiated, are pointless because a Backstop would still be required, as The PM has ruled out membership of The Single Market, and The Customs Union.
The possible solutions would therefore seem to be,
Second Referendum.
No deal.
General Election.
A completely different approach by The Government.
To avoid a backstop we would have to remain in The Customs Union and Single Market. Staying in the Single Market means we would have to accept Freedom of Movement. Staying in The Customs Union means we cant strike free trade deals with other countries.
A General Election solution would only work if the new Government stayed in The Single Market and Customs Union.
A no deal solution is seen by most experts as a complete disaster.
We are also running out of time.
Many people will be unhappy whatever the result.
Everybody just seems to want to point out problems rather than think of solutions.
Many Leave voters will have been inspired by The Brexit Secretary David Davis when he said we will still have all the same benefits after leaving.
Dominic Raab a Leave supporter said after he resigned that he would rather stay in, than support what The PM was proposing.
A proportion of Leave voters will be in favour of the variety of deal options available. Canada, Norway, Chequers, WTO, and they cant all get what they want.
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
What would your solution be?
Crikey ...I cant solve Brexit before I've had my second cup of coffee . Personally , now we are in this mess , I think the politicians have to support Mays deal and make it work ...although it's far from satisfactory . Hardly a solution , I know . Perhaps drag Cameron away from his cosy little existence and force him to sort out the mess he's created
This is,IMO, the "least worst" solution.
The time has gone for any 2nd referendum (more accurately a 3rd) on whether we leave the EU, simply because there is insufficient time left. In addition, while I think that we will never match the French for organised uprisings, there would be a massive rise in the Far Right in its appeal to people who already feel disenfranchised.
The other point I would make is this. I agree that the traditional binary option model does not work in relation to Brexit. However, people are forgetting that one of the biggest binary elections is likely to take place this year, ie for the leadership of the Conservative party, and hence PM.
The leadership contest for the Conservatives works like no other. Every round of votes just removes last place (or people choosing to drop out) until only 2 are left. The last time someone won the first vote and triumphed in subsequent votes (other than May when all withdrew)was Thatcher in 1975. In 1990 1st ballot winner was Thatcher, 1997 Clarke, 2001 Portillo, 2005 Davis. No winner there.
It is likely that more than 3 people will stand, with at least 3 main options. And 1 of those 3 options will be disenfranchised. Not by the 42,000 Momentum members running the Labour Party. By probably less than 100 MPs largely motivated by what they see is best for them (because Conservative party members have no vote, just MPs). And that scares me.
And, purely depending on which 2 are left, we will have our fates decided. And, if the "May" candidate makes the final 2, they win because they capture almost all of the 3rd candidates votes. Which is why Gove looks a good bet to be the next PM.
Just to add to the above , 2nd referendum possible options : Most referendums offer voters a binary choice between two options. In the case of Brexit, there are at least three possible outcomes: Theresa May’s deal, Brexit with no deal, or remaining in the EU after all.
A second referendum could in principle be held as a straight choice between two of these options: for instance Deal vs No Deal, or Deal vs Remain. In this case, whichever option won more votes would be implemented. This approach would naturally be opposed by those who support the third, excluded option.
If a referendum were held that includes all three options then there are different ways to determine the result. The simplest approach would be to allow each voter to vote for their favoured option, with the most popular choice declared the victor. This could lead, however, to an option being implemented without support of a majority of voters.
To avoid this, voters could rank their choices in order of preference. The least popular first choice would be eliminated, and its votes reallocated based on second preferences. This would ensure that the successful option gained over 50% of first and second preferences.
Finally, the referendum could include two separate questions. Question 1 could ask whether voters wish to Leave or Remain, as in 2016. Question 2 could ask voters to select between the two different models of Brexit, if there is still a pro-Leave majority.
I am not 100% what the question would be, but if the original referendum question was to remain, or leave with a particular deal, then we wouldn't be in the mess that we are currently in. I don't think that no deal would get much support, but putting on the ballot paper may make a few people happy. I also think that having two leave options would make it much easier for remain to win.
Logically the leave vote which was 52%, was split between all the options. Those who wanted to leave with no deal, Canada, Norway, and Chequers. If they had all been on the original ballot, remain would have won, hands down.
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
What would your solution be?
Crikey ...I cant solve Brexit before I've had my second cup of coffee . Personally , now we are in this mess , I think the politicians have to support Mays deal and make it work ...although it's far from satisfactory . Hardly a solution , I know . Perhaps drag Cameron away from his cosy little existence and force him to sort out the mess he's created
This is,IMO, the "least worst" solution.
The time has gone for any 2nd referendum (more accurately a 3rd) on whether we leave the EU, simply because there is insufficient time left. In addition, while I think that we will never match the French for organised uprisings, there would be a massive rise in the Far Right in its appeal to people who already feel disenfranchised.
The other point I would make is this. I agree that the traditional binary option model does not work in relation to Brexit. However, people are forgetting that one of the biggest binary elections is likely to take place this year, ie for the leadership of the Conservative party, and hence PM.
The leadership contest for the Conservatives works like no other. Every round of votes just removes last place (or people choosing to drop out) until only 2 are left. The last time someone won the first vote and triumphed in subsequent votes (other than May when all withdrew)was Thatcher in 1975. In 1990 1st ballot winner was Thatcher, 1997 Clarke, 2001 Portillo, 2005 Davis. No winner there.
It is likely that more than 3 people will stand, with at least 3 main options. And 1 of those 3 options will be disenfranchised. Not by the 42,000 Momentum members running the Labour Party. By probably less than 100 MPs largely motivated by what they see is best for them (because Conservative party members have no vote, just MPs). And that scares me.
And, purely depending on which 2 are left, we will have our fates decided. And, if the "May" candidate makes the final 2, they win because they capture almost all of the 3rd candidates votes. Which is why Gove looks a good bet to be the next PM.
Not so sure about that ..Boris is fav on the exchange...however ( prob should be in betting chat ) ...but i have been tempted with a bet on Theresa may to cease being the leader of the con party between Apr and end of June 2019 currently trading at 5.1 on the exchange ( couldnt find that specific market on sky ) Think thats a good price and can't see her staying on ( by choice or not ) too long after march 29th .
Comments
Michael Rowsell
5 months ago
Its like Britain had a referendum on whether PIGS can fly.The remainers said Pigs cannot fly and Brexiters said PIGS can fly. They had a vote and the people voted for PIGS to fly.The Brexiteers spent 2 years trying to make Pigs fly.They then gave up and handed the problem to Mrs May.Her solution was a mechanical pig.But the technology was 20 years away. Mr Mogg however said its not a real PIG and his solution was to fire the PIG out of a cannon. The PIG crash landed and died a slow and painful death.
Freddie P
4 months ago
Big mistake guys, starting by introducing yourselves as experts, experienced travellers and international traders; Brexiteers stopped the video immediately.
Ufthak
5 months ago
48% tariffs on grated cheese. Make Britain grate again!
James Chambers
5 months ago
Well done Gents, very refreshing, and deeply disturbing, to hear the stark reality of the situation. Until now it's been pretty much James O'Brien alone who's been delivering facts, something the country desperately needs a lot more of.
ParcelOf Rogue
5 months ago
My own experiences as a small niche manufacturer, exporter and importer bears this out. We are being governed by know nothing buffoons.
Chadwick Hall
5 months ago
These guys are honestly discussing the situation in an intellectual and common-sense manner, yet still the Brexit believers making comments here don’t get it! They view Brexit like a fanatical religion, they would rather destroy the country than give up their blind faith.
John Smith
5 months ago
You can tell this is a brilliant, detailed well reasoned video because the comment section is full of brexiteers who had to turn it off.
Denis Loretto
4 months ago
I have read as many as I could of the comments submitted below. There are quite a few muttering "project fear" or "remoaners" and the like but I have not seen one which even tries to counter any of the practical points made by the three blokes in the pub. Come on brexiteers. If none of you can come up with even some answers I reckon we all need to be out on the next march for a people's vote. The one in London is on Saturday October 20 I understand.
MaghrebinischLaut
5 months ago
This is the best video on Brexit I've watched in months. Granted, not a difficult achievement, given how much incredible jingoistic nonsense there is on the topic here on YouTube but I've enjoyed listening to an interesting discussion among three people who actually know what they're talking about.
OM Selection
5 months ago
Brexiteer converted. Many thanks boys!
because it's not right
4 months ago
Absolutely terrifying the issues you have raised ...brilliant work chaps.....i fear civil unrest....if the masses become hungry this is a serious and dangerous self inflicted situation shame on boris Johnson and Cameron
This particular video refers to a test conducted by the Government, on preparations for dealing with hold ups because of Customs Checks in Kent.
There were supposed to have been 150 lorries turning up, 88 and a bin lorry actually turned up, and they did their little test.
Some people might have considered this a bit silly, when the actual number of lorries going through every day is 12,000.
A transport export on one of the other videos, estimated that we would require around 8,000 Customs Officers to carry out the required checks. We currently have 200, and it takes 5 years to properly train one.
A no deal Brexit in March will be a disaster, and another referendum may be the only alternative.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
It seems that the support for a second referendum is increasing, as is the support for Remaining, as we get closer to the March Deadline, and Parliament seems unable to resolve the situation.
After watching "Brexit The Uncivil War", I am certain that if they got Dominic Cummings to run the Remain Campaign, we would be staying in.
A second referendum will obviously not be popular with everyone, but would provide a solution
A second referendum could in principle be held as a straight choice between two of these options: for instance Deal vs No Deal, or Deal vs Remain. In this case, whichever option won more votes would be implemented. This approach would naturally be opposed by those who support the third, excluded option.
If a referendum were held that includes all three options then there are different ways to determine the result. The simplest approach would be to allow each voter to vote for their favoured option, with the most popular choice declared the victor. This could lead, however, to an option being implemented without support of a majority of voters.
To avoid this, voters could rank their choices in order of preference. The least popular first choice would be eliminated, and its votes reallocated based on second preferences. This would ensure that the successful option gained over 50% of first and second preferences.
Finally, the referendum could include two separate questions. Question 1 could ask whether voters wish to Leave or Remain, as in 2016. Question 2 could ask voters to select between the two different models of Brexit, if there is still a pro-Leave majority.
If they can get The Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament, we will end up with a deal without having a second referendum. Therefore your point A becomes invalid, because that may well happen anyway.
The electorate currently have no right to choose what sort of deal we opt for. Parliament are going to decide, assuming they are able to.
I think that the reaction to Remain winning a second referendum will pale into insignificance in comparison to a No Deal Brexit, and thousands of people losing their jobs.
This is where we are now.
Parliament vote on The Withdrawal Agreement on Tuesday. If it was passed we move on to the trade negotiations with the EU. This will result in a deal of some sort, after years of negotiations. We would then move into a Transition Period in March, where our trading arrangements would remain the same as they are now, until Dec 2020. From Jan 2021 our new trading arrangements would take effect. However if these new arrangements are not in place by then, we would be able to extend The Transition Period, or move into The Backstop, until the new trading arrangements had been finalised.
The problem is that The Withdrawal Agreement wont get through Parliament.
By law we leave The EU in March. So assuming The Withdrawal Agreement fails to get through Parliament, we go over the famous cliff into the chaos of a No Deal Brexit.
The only thing that there seems to be a majority for in Parliament is the avoidance of a No Deal Brexit, because of the implications.
There can be no trade negotiations with the EU, without a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement must have a Backstop. The Irish border arrangements are the reason why The Backstop will never get through. The other deals on offer will also require a Backstop.
The problem in Parliament is purely about The Backstop, and not about any particular deal. The suggestions regarding the different deals that could be negotiated, are pointless because a Backstop would still be required, as The PM has ruled out membership of The Single Market, and The Customs Union.
The possible solutions would therefore seem to be,
Second Referendum.
No deal.
General Election.
A completely different approach by The Government.
To avoid a backstop we would have to remain in The Customs Union and Single Market. Staying in the Single Market means we would have to accept Freedom of Movement. Staying in The Customs Union means we cant strike free trade deals with other countries.
A General Election solution would only work if the new Government stayed in The Single Market and Customs Union.
A no deal solution is seen by most experts as a complete disaster.
We are also running out of time.
Many people will be unhappy whatever the result.
Everybody just seems to want to point out problems rather than think of solutions.
Many Leave voters will have been inspired by The Brexit Secretary David Davis when he said we will still have all the same benefits after leaving.
Dominic Raab a Leave supporter said after he resigned that he would rather stay in, than support what The PM was proposing.
A proportion of Leave voters will be in favour of the variety of deal options available. Canada, Norway, Chequers, WTO, and they cant all get what they want.
The time has gone for any 2nd referendum (more accurately a 3rd) on whether we leave the EU, simply because there is insufficient time left. In addition, while I think that we will never match the French for organised uprisings, there would be a massive rise in the Far Right in its appeal to people who already feel disenfranchised.
The other point I would make is this. I agree that the traditional binary option model does not work in relation to Brexit. However, people are forgetting that one of the biggest binary elections is likely to take place this year, ie for the leadership of the Conservative party, and hence PM.
The leadership contest for the Conservatives works like no other. Every round of votes just removes last place (or people choosing to drop out) until only 2 are left. The last time someone won the first vote and triumphed in subsequent votes (other than May when all withdrew)was Thatcher in 1975. In 1990 1st ballot winner was Thatcher, 1997 Clarke, 2001 Portillo, 2005 Davis. No winner there.
It is likely that more than 3 people will stand, with at least 3 main options. And 1 of those 3 options will be disenfranchised. Not by the 42,000 Momentum members running the Labour Party. By probably less than 100 MPs largely motivated by what they see is best for them (because Conservative party members have no vote, just MPs). And that scares me.
And, purely depending on which 2 are left, we will have our fates decided. And, if the "May" candidate makes the final 2, they win because they capture almost all of the 3rd candidates votes. Which is why Gove looks a good bet to be the next PM.
I don't think that no deal would get much support, but putting on the ballot paper may make a few people happy.
I also think that having two leave options would make it much easier for remain to win.
Logically the leave vote which was 52%, was split between all the options.
Those who wanted to leave with no deal, Canada, Norway, and Chequers. If they had all been on the original ballot, remain would have won, hands down.
Think thats a good price and can't see her staying on ( by choice or not ) too long after march 29th .