May warns of ‘catastrophic and unforgivable breach of trust’ if UK remains in EU
Writing in the Sunday Express, Mrs May said: “You, the British people, voted to leave. And then, in the 2017 General Election, 80% of you voted for MPs who stood on manifestos to respect that referendum result. You have delivered your instructions. Now it is our turn to deliver for you.
Wouldn't you expect a large majority to vote for the two main parties come what may? Particularly since The Lib Dems have fallen off a cliff. How does the fact that in 2015 when the Tories included the prospect of a referendum by 2017 in their manifesto, that only 36% voted for them, play into this? Does that mean we shouldn't have had a referendum? Or does it just mean that politicians will only use stats that suit them?
Labour set to call vote to topple Theresa May’s government
Labour MPs have been told to prepare for Jeremy Corbyn to table a dramatic and immediate vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s government as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a general election if – as expected – she suffers a heavy defeat this week on her Brexit deal. Messages have been sent to Labour MPs, even those who are unwell, to ensure their presence both for the “meaningful vote” on the prime minister’s Brexit blueprint on Tuesday and the following day. Labour whips have told MPs the no-confidence vote is likely to be tabled within hours of a government loss, with the actual vote taking place on Wednesday.
Brexit It’s decision time for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. What happens next? MPs look likely to reject the PM’s withdrawal agreement. There are a number of scenarios that could follow
The speeches will have been made; the cabinet rows put on hold. The EU will have made a last-minute attempt to appease sceptical MPs. On Tuesday evening, MPs are finally due to troop through the voting lobbies to cast their judgment on Theresa May’s much-maligned Brexit deal. Even for the most rebellious, it will come as a long overdue moment of clarity. “The truth is, we need to decide one way or another whether or not we want the PM’s deal,” said one senior Tory rebel. “We’ve got to give a clear message about its acceptability to parliament, or otherwise, on Tuesday. I feel that anything else is a bit of a distraction.” Downing Street insiders are adamant that the vote, which has already been delayed once to avoid a heavy defeat, will go ahead this time. Yet with the Brexit process descending into the labyrinthine world of parliamentary procedure, there is a twist or two left before MPs take the plunge. Before the key vote on Tuesday night, votes will also be held on amendments designed to reshape May’s deal – some in effect reject the agreement, even before the proper vote on it has taken place. Should May’s deal be rejected as expected, an even more unpredictable phase of the Brexit battle begins. So what could happen then?
A no-confidence vote in the government
There is already a row going on at the top of the Labour party about when or if it should call a vote of no-confidence in the government once May’s deal is defeated. Should Labour win it, the party would have the chance to try to form another government – but in practice, it would lead to an election. However, Jeremy Corbyn has admitted that Labour is unlikely to win a confidence vote. Most of those pushing for it to happen immediately know this – but want it out of the way so the party can take a step towards backing a second referendum. Whips have been telling MPs that a vote could be immediate – raising the hopes of those that want the party to back a second public vote.
Parliament takes back control
Even in the past couple of weeks, parliament and John Bercow, the speaker, have shown that they can assert themselves on the Brexit process because May’s government has no majority. Leading Tory rebels say they have a “legally copper-bottomed” plan to give parliament more control of the Brexit negotiations after Tuesday’s vote, but are keeping it close to their chests. Cabinet ministers are openly agitating for parliament to seize further control if May’s deal is defeated. Their main aim is to hold a series of indicative votes, showing what there is and is not a majority for. From no deal to Norway plus and no Brexit, all could be tested. Some also want to show there is already a majority for delaying Brexit day by extending article 50.
May heads back to Brussels
Once the vote has been defeated, the prime minister will have to make a statement by next Monday about what she intends to do. Her most likely tactic will be to book yet another Eurostar ticket to Brussels in an attempt to secure further concessions from the EU on the Irish backstop – a mechanism designed to ensure the Irish border stays open after Brexit, which Brexiters say threatens to keep Britain tied to the bloc. It is the part of May’s deal that is causing the most concern to pro-Brexit Tory MPs.
May has failed to secure meaningful concessions on the backstop so far. There are some hopes that after a defeat, Brussels may be more willing to consider something more substantial, but there are no guarantees. May would then hold a second vote on her tweaked deal. Such an outcome becomes more unlikely if her deal falls to a huge defeat on Tuesday.
A cross-party compromise
With time running out, there are now senior figures trying to find a Brexit compromise that could attract enough cross-party support to command a Commons majority. There are also cabinet ministers who are ready to urge May to shift to a softer Brexit, to attract enough Labour support. May has spoken to the unions and offered guarantees on environmental protection and workers’ rights. The obvious shift, already being backed by some in the cabinet, is a move to a permanent customs union with the EU. That would stop Britain signing its own international trade deals, but it would help sort some of the border and trade issues that concern many Labour MPs. It may not attract frontbench Labour support, but could secure enough Labour backing to work as a compromise. However, May has shown no inclination to consider a customs union, and such a move would lose her the support of some of her Tory backers.
Another election
Having already failed to secure a majority in an election that she was predicted to win decisively, May is unlikely to take the same risk again as a way of securing her Brexit deal. While Corbyn says he wants an election, he does not have the means of securing one, while some in the shadow cabinet think the party is not properly prepared. The most likely way that an election could be called would be if a no-deal Brexit looked imminent. In that scenario, enough Tories may be so worried that they would back a no-confidence motion in the government to avoid it, triggering an election.
A second referendum
There is currently no majority for a second referendum and both the Tory and Labour leaderships are against one. Yet if the parliamentary deadlock cannot be broken, more MPs from all sides may conclude that the only way to resolve the impasse is to go back to the people. Advertisement
That would unleash a whole new series of battles. What would the question be? Would no deal be on the ballot paper? If such a move was forced on May, would she resign? What would Labour’s position be in a referendum, given that it has promised to deliver Brexit? Cue another massive row.
UK government confirms £300m for peace projects in Northern Ireland after Brexit
About £300m will go towards funding peace projects in Northern Ireland after Brexit, the UK government announced on Friday. It said it will contribute millions of pounds to Ireland’s upcoming Peace Plus project until 2027, as part of its “unwavering commitment” to maintaining peace in Northern Ireland after Britain’s departure from the EU.
We seem to have different ideas about what the word " deal " means. For anyone who is reading this thread and getting more confused than ever about things , as if it wasn't complicated enough , perhaps this article might simplify things >>>>>
As to the above ( if you cant be ar$$ed to read it all ) , the opening part of the article reads ...." The deal struck between Theresa May’s government and the EU needs the formal approval of the UK parliament. But after coming under attack from all sides in the House of Commons, the vote scheduled for December 11 has been postponed until mid-January."
Starting from scratch.
We voted to leave.
We invoked Article 50, giving the EU 2 years notice of our intention to leave.
The 2 years runs out at the end of March.
The intention was to agree a future trade deal during this 2 year period.
It was also agreed that we would have a 2 year transition period after leaving, which would allow businesses a further 2 years notice, before there were any rule changes.
The EU and UK agreed a process for negotiations.
We therefore agreed to sign a Withdrawal Agreement before moving on to a trade deal.
The Withdrawal Agreement covered 3 things.
The rights of EU citizens in the UK, and UK citizens in the EU.
How much we owed them.
The Irish Border.
The plan has completely failed as it has taken almost 2 years to negotiate The Withdrawal Agreement alone.
We have not therefore done any trade negotiations.
The problem has been The Irish Border.
As it has not been possible to find a solution to this problem, they have negotiated an insurance policy. This insurance policy is the rules that will come into play if no trade agreement can be reached.
This insurance policy is called The Backstop.
The Backstop forms part of The Withdrawal Agreement.
Parliament was meant to have what was called a Meaningful Vote on the agreed deal, before it could be ratified.
As we have no trade deal yet, Parliament is now voting on The Withdrawal Agreement.
A couple of pages have been put together setting out loosely, the framework for future trade discussions.
The proposal that The PM put forward to the EU has been referred to as The Chequers Deal.
Other deals that have been referred to are Norway, and Canada.
Chequers Norway and Canada, are all types of trade deals.
"No deal" which would mean trading under WTO rules has also been mentioned.
We haven't started discussing a trade deal yet. This is likely to take a number of years.
The MPs are voting against The Government, because they don't like The Backstop.
This is nothing to do with any trade deal, because we haven't got one.
We cant get onto trade until we agree the withdrawal.
The Government then planned to negotiate the trade agreement during The Transition Period.
Many people were calling this a Blind Brexit, as we would be leaving in March without any knowledge of what the future trade deal was.
So we don't have a deal yet.
Parliament don't like The Backstop, and will vote against it.
The other deal options will also require a Backstop, unless membership of The Customs Union is added.
The PM has adamantly ruled out membership of a Customs Union.
The PM is desperately seeking concessions from the EU, which seem unlikely to be forthcoming before Tuesday.
No Backstop means No Withdrawal Agreement, which means no trade deal.
The vote is on Tuesday.
We leave in March.
Well done for simplifying it all for everyone ( with an obvious slant as always ) ...rolls eyes
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
What would your solution be?
Crikey ...I cant solve Brexit before I've had my second cup of coffee . Personally , now we are in this mess , I think the politicians have to support Mays deal and make it work ...although it's far from satisfactory . Hardly a solution , I know . Perhaps drag Cameron away from his cosy little existence and force him to sort out the mess he's created
What Parliament are currently refusing to support is The Backstop bit of The Withdrawal Agreement. This has nothing to do with a trade deal. It is purely an insurance policy to avoid an Irish Border.
The problem is that this will apply to any future deal, or no deal, providing we are outside The Single Market, and The Customs Union.
The more I think about possible solutions, it seems more likely that we have another referendum.
Best price 6/4 2nd fav with skybet ...fill your boots ...I don't think it will ever happen , and politicians won't want it to happen because they know a large section of the population who voted leave and even some who voted remain , will never trust politicians to carry out the will of the public again if it was to happen . Happy to have a charity side bet with you on the issue if you wish ?
I only think its more likely because of the lack of alternatives. Parliament seem determined to rule out no deal. So what is the alternative?
The alternative ..is some of the approximate 72 mps who oppose Mays deal , see sense and change their minds
Currently there seems a huge majority of MPs that are dead set against The Backstop, and seem adamant that they wont vote for it.
In addition to this, there seems to be a sizeable majority that have reservations about the trade deal that she will propose.
Dislike of her deal appears to be the only thing that unites both sides of the argument.
It has been described in some quarters as the worst of all worlds.
Dominic Raab, the prominent leave campaigner, and ex Brexit Secretary, famously said that he would prefer to remain in the EU than support this deal.
So even if a miracle occurred, and The Backstop was passed, a further miracle would be required to get the deal through.
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
You questioned the validity of the first referendum, due to the electorate being ill informed and the misleading claims that were made.
You could easily argue that if the electorate has not changed their minds in sufficient numbers then we would still leave.
Another referendum would give us a solution, as no further negotiations would be required.
I appreciate that if the result was to Remain, some people would be annoyed. Although many people will be annoyed at the economic results of Leaving.
If we don't have a referendum, avoid no deal, and The Withdrawal Agreement gets through, Brexit is set to run for years to come. Everyone is fed up of it, and wants it over and done with.
Annoyed ? I think that's a gross understatement of the effect it will have on our already fragile society ...if we were to have a 2nd referendum and the result based on accept this deal or remain , was a) accept this deal ...then at the very least millions of our population will be completely disenfranchised with politics as a whole and that will undoubtedly affect future turnouts with local and general elections , if it was b) remain....same scenario but massive civil unrest at unprecedented levels that would probably make the french yellow jackets look like choirboys, and allow the far right extremeist groups to get involved in the ensuing chaos .
What would your solution be?
Crikey ...I cant solve Brexit before I've had my second cup of coffee . Personally , now we are in this mess , I think the politicians have to support Mays deal and make it work ...although it's far from satisfactory . Hardly a solution , I know . Perhaps drag Cameron away from his cosy little existence and force him to sort out the mess he's created
What Parliament are currently refusing to support is The Backstop bit of The Withdrawal Agreement. This has nothing to do with a trade deal. It is purely an insurance policy to avoid an Irish Border.
The problem is that this will apply to any future deal, or no deal, providing we are outside The Single Market, and The Customs Union.
The more I think about possible solutions, it seems more likely that we have another referendum.
Best price 6/4 2nd fav with skybet ...fill your boots ...I don't think it will ever happen , and politicians won't want it to happen because they know a large section of the population who voted leave and even some who voted remain , will never trust politicians to carry out the will of the public again if it was to happen . Happy to have a charity side bet with you on the issue if you wish ?
I only think its more likely because of the lack of alternatives. Parliament seem determined to rule out no deal. So what is the alternative?
The alternative ..is some of the approximate 72 mps who oppose Mays deal , see sense and change their minds
Currently there seems a huge majority of MPs that are dead set against The Backstop, and seem adamant that they wont vote for it.
In addition to this, there seems to be a sizeable majority that have reservations about the trade deal that she will propose.
Dislike of her deal appears to be the only thing that unites both sides of the argument.
It has been described in some quarters as the worst of all worlds.
Dominic Raab, the prominent leave campaigner, and ex Brexit Secretary, famously said that he would prefer to remain in the EU than support this deal.
So even if a miracle occurred, and The Backstop was passed, a further miracle would be required to get the deal through.
Of course there aren't any other agendas anywhere ...jeremy corbyn 's main agenda isn't a general election however that may impact on political opinion as a whole and Dominic Raab doesn't have any leadership aspirations, so that won't be affecting his stance in the slightest Forget getting together Brexit food parcels , disorder on a level unprecedented is just around the corner if these politicians don't get behind the deal and make it work , rather than effectively push a 2nd referendum, as the majority of people who voted leave ( however misinformed and misguided they might have been ) , expected them to .
Of course there aren't any other agendas anywhere ...jeremy corbyn 's main agenda isn't a general election however that may impact on political opinion as a whole and Dominic Raab doesn't have any leadership aspirations, so that won't be affecting his stance in the slightest Forget getting together Brexit food parcels , disorder on a level unprecedented is just around the corner if these politicians don't get behind the deal and make it work , rather than effectively push a 2nd referendum, as the majority of people who voted leave ( however misinformed and misguided they might have been ) , expected them to .
The first priority of any opposition party will always be to get an election as soon as possible. There has never been any doubt that The Labour Party has been trying to exploit the Government shambles to that end throughout the Brexit negotiations. I merely used the Dominic Raab comment to illustrate the unpopularity of the proposed deal, on both sides of the argument. It is a minority Government, so she is reliant on The DUP, to win any vote. The DUP hate The Backstop. Over one hundred of her own MPs have stated they will vote against. All the opposition parties will be whipped to vote against. Experts are saying she will lose the vote by well over 200. This would be a UK Governments biggest ever defeat.
This is all about The Backstop.
If you then start talking about a trade deal, there appears to be no majority in favour of any particular deal.
Something has to happen to stop us leaving with no deal in March.
Over 70% over Labour members and a majority of Labour voters, support a second referendum. So if Jeremy Corbyn fails in his bid for an election, he will probably come out in favour of a referendum at some point.
I am not sure of the relevance of this. If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
I am not sure of the relevance of this. If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
The relevance is , understanding what people think . If you believe the figures .
I am not sure of the relevance of this. If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
The relevance is , understanding what people think . If you believe the figures .
When have politicians ever been concerned about what people think?
I am not sure of the relevance of this. If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
The relevance is , understanding what people think . If you believe the figures .
When have politicians ever been concerned about what people think?
I f we had a second referendum, it would be taken out of the hands of politicians. The people would then have an opportunity to vote in favour of The PMs deal. It could then be implemented without any further recourse to Parliament. Probably the only way that it has a chance of happening.
It's more likely Brexit will not happen on 29 March, than no-deal — EIU
Britain is meant to leave the European Union (EU) on 29 March, 2019. However one of the world’s most reputable think tanks believes that Brexit will not happen on that date and that a ‘no-deal Brexit’ is the least likely scenario right now.
UK MPs produce legislation for holding a Brexit referendum in the next few months
Cross-party group of MPs publish draft legislation for holding a Brexit referendum before the end of May. MPs from the Conservatives, Labour and other parties unveil two draft bills designed for holding a referendum on Theresa May's Brexit deal in the next few months. Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable said it shows "how quickly a People's Vote can be delivered." The prime minister has repeatedly ruled out another referendum and described it as an affront to democracy. May is set to claim on Monday that MPs blocking Brexit is more likely than no deal. Her deal is set to be voted down by MPs on Tuesday.
I am not sure of the relevance of this. If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
The relevance is , understanding what people think . If you believe the figures .
When have politicians ever been concerned about what people think?
No one said they did ..you asked what the relevance was , and I answered ..this is a thread about Brexit , I think it's interesting to see potentially what people think
Comments
Particularly since The Lib Dems have fallen off a cliff.
How does the fact that in 2015 when the Tories included the prospect of a referendum by 2017 in their manifesto, that only 36% voted for them, play into this?
Does that mean we shouldn't have had a referendum?
Or does it just mean that politicians will only use stats that suit them?
Labour MPs have been told to prepare for Jeremy Corbyn to table a dramatic and immediate vote of no confidence in Theresa May’s government as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a general election if – as expected – she suffers a heavy defeat this week on her Brexit deal.
Messages have been sent to Labour MPs, even those who are unwell, to ensure their presence both for the “meaningful vote” on the prime minister’s Brexit blueprint on Tuesday and the following day. Labour whips have told MPs the no-confidence vote is likely to be tabled within hours of a government loss, with the actual vote taking place on Wednesday.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/labour-set-to-call-vote-to-topple-theresa-may’s-government/ar-BBS9sBT?ocid=spartandhp
It’s decision time for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. What happens next?
MPs look likely to reject the PM’s withdrawal agreement. There are a number of scenarios that could follow
The speeches will have been made; the cabinet rows put on hold. The EU will have made a last-minute attempt to appease sceptical MPs. On Tuesday evening, MPs are finally due to troop through the voting lobbies to cast their judgment on Theresa May’s much-maligned Brexit deal.
Even for the most rebellious, it will come as a long overdue moment of clarity. “The truth is, we need to decide one way or another whether or not we want the PM’s deal,” said one senior Tory rebel. “We’ve got to give a clear message about its acceptability to parliament, or otherwise, on Tuesday. I feel that anything else is a bit of a distraction.”
Downing Street insiders are adamant that the vote, which has already been delayed once to avoid a heavy defeat, will go ahead this time. Yet with the Brexit process descending into the labyrinthine world of parliamentary procedure, there is a twist or two left before MPs take the plunge. Before the key vote on Tuesday night, votes will also be held on amendments designed to reshape May’s deal – some in effect reject the agreement, even before the proper vote on it has taken place.
Should May’s deal be rejected as expected, an even more unpredictable phase of the Brexit battle begins. So what could happen then?
A no-confidence vote in the government
There is already a row going on at the top of the Labour party about when or if it should call a vote of no-confidence in the government once May’s deal is defeated. Should Labour win it, the party would have the chance to try to form another government – but in practice, it would lead to an election. However, Jeremy Corbyn has admitted that Labour is unlikely to win a confidence vote. Most of those pushing for it to happen immediately know this – but want it out of the way so the party can take a step towards backing a second referendum. Whips have been telling MPs that a vote could be immediate – raising the hopes of those that want the party to back a second public vote.
Parliament takes back control
Even in the past couple of weeks, parliament and John Bercow, the speaker, have shown that they can assert themselves on the Brexit process because May’s government has no majority. Leading Tory rebels say they have a “legally copper-bottomed” plan to give parliament more control of the Brexit negotiations after Tuesday’s vote, but are keeping it close to their chests.
Cabinet ministers are openly agitating for parliament to seize further control if May’s deal is defeated. Their main aim is to hold a series of indicative votes, showing what there is and is not a majority for. From no deal to Norway plus and no Brexit, all could be tested. Some also want to show there is already a majority for delaying Brexit day by extending article 50.
May heads back to Brussels
Once the vote has been defeated, the prime minister will have to make a statement by next Monday about what she intends to do. Her most likely tactic will be to book yet another Eurostar ticket to Brussels in an attempt to secure further concessions from the EU on the Irish backstop – a mechanism designed to ensure the Irish border stays open after Brexit, which Brexiters say threatens to keep Britain tied to the bloc. It is the part of May’s deal that is causing the most concern to pro-Brexit Tory MPs.
May has failed to secure meaningful concessions on the backstop so far. There are some hopes that after a defeat, Brussels may be more willing to consider something more substantial, but there are no guarantees. May would then hold a second vote on her tweaked deal. Such an outcome becomes more unlikely if her deal falls to a huge defeat on Tuesday.
A cross-party compromise
With time running out, there are now senior figures trying to find a Brexit compromise that could attract enough cross-party support to command a Commons majority. There are also cabinet ministers who are ready to urge May to shift to a softer Brexit, to attract enough Labour support. May has spoken to the unions and offered guarantees on environmental protection and workers’ rights.
The obvious shift, already being backed by some in the cabinet, is a move to a permanent customs union with the EU.
That would stop Britain signing its own international trade deals, but it would help sort some of the border and trade issues that concern many Labour MPs.
It may not attract frontbench Labour support, but could secure enough Labour backing to work as a compromise. However, May has shown no inclination to consider a customs union, and such a move would lose her the support of some of her Tory backers.
Another election
Having already failed to secure a majority in an election that she was predicted to win decisively, May is unlikely to take the same risk again as a way of securing her Brexit deal. While Corbyn says he wants an election, he does not have the means of securing one, while some in the shadow cabinet think the party is not properly prepared.
The most likely way that an election could be called would be if a no-deal Brexit looked imminent. In that scenario, enough Tories may be so worried that they would back a no-confidence motion in the government to avoid it, triggering an election.
A second referendum
There is currently no majority for a second referendum and both the Tory and Labour leaderships are against one.
Yet if the parliamentary deadlock cannot be broken, more MPs from all sides may conclude that the only way to resolve the impasse is to go back to the people.
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That would unleash a whole new series of battles. What would the question be? Would no deal be on the ballot paper? If such a move was forced on May, would she resign? What would Labour’s position be in a referendum, given that it has promised to deliver Brexit? Cue another massive row.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/decision-time-on-theresa-may-brexit-deal-what-happens-next
UK government confirms £300m for peace projects in Northern Ireland after Brexit
About £300m will go towards funding peace projects in Northern Ireland after Brexit, the UK government announced on Friday.
It said it will contribute millions of pounds to Ireland’s upcoming Peace Plus project until 2027, as part of its “unwavering commitment” to maintaining peace in Northern Ireland after Britain’s departure from the EU.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-government-confirms-300m-peace-projects-northern-ireland-brexit-112741404.html
May's Proposed Brexit Deal Explained
In addition to this, there seems to be a sizeable majority that have reservations about the trade deal that she will propose.
Dislike of her deal appears to be the only thing that unites both sides of the argument.
It has been described in some quarters as the worst of all worlds.
Dominic Raab, the prominent leave campaigner, and ex Brexit Secretary, famously said that he would prefer to remain in the EU than support this deal.
So even if a miracle occurred, and The Backstop was passed, a further miracle would be required to get the deal through.
Forget getting together Brexit food parcels , disorder on a level unprecedented is just around the corner if these politicians don't get behind the deal and make it work , rather than effectively push a 2nd referendum, as the majority of people who voted leave ( however misinformed and misguided they might have been ) , expected them to .
Forget getting together Brexit food parcels , disorder on a level unprecedented is just around the corner if these politicians don't get behind the deal and make it work , rather than effectively push a 2nd referendum, as the majority of people who voted leave ( however misinformed and misguided they might have been ) , expected them to .
The first priority of any opposition party will always be to get an election as soon as possible. There has never been any doubt that The Labour Party has been trying to exploit the Government shambles to that end throughout the Brexit negotiations.
I merely used the Dominic Raab comment to illustrate the unpopularity of the proposed deal, on both sides of the argument.
It is a minority Government, so she is reliant on The DUP, to win any vote.
The DUP hate The Backstop. Over one hundred of her own MPs have stated they will vote against. All the opposition parties will be whipped to vote against. Experts are saying she will lose the vote by well over 200. This would be a UK Governments biggest ever defeat.
This is all about The Backstop.
If you then start talking about a trade deal, there appears to be no majority in favour of any particular deal.
Something has to happen to stop us leaving with no deal in March.
Over 70% over Labour members and a majority of Labour voters, support a second referendum. So if Jeremy Corbyn fails in his bid for an election, he will probably come out in favour of a referendum at some point.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-vast-majority-labour-members-13799711
The most likely outcome at present seems to be either a no deal, or a referendum.
If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
The people would then have an opportunity to vote in favour of The PMs deal.
It could then be implemented without any further recourse to Parliament.
Probably the only way that it has a chance of happening.
Britain is meant to leave the European Union (EU) on 29 March, 2019. However one of the world’s most reputable think tanks believes that Brexit will not happen on that date and that a ‘no-deal Brexit’ is the least likely scenario right now.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/likely-brexit-will-not-happen-29-march-no-deal-eiu-072453964.html
Cross-party group of MPs publish draft legislation for holding a Brexit referendum before the end of May.
MPs from the Conservatives, Labour and other parties unveil two draft bills designed for holding a referendum on Theresa May's Brexit deal in the next few months.
Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable said it shows "how quickly a People's Vote can be delivered."
The prime minister has repeatedly ruled out another referendum and described it as an affront to democracy.
May is set to claim on Monday that MPs blocking Brexit is more likely than no deal.
Her deal is set to be voted down by MPs on Tuesday.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/uk-mps-produce-legislation-for-holding-a-brexit-referendum-in-the-next-few-months/ar-BBSdr9a?ocid=spartandhp
Why May's Deal Will Fail in Parliament