I am not sure of the relevance of this. If a majority of MPs supported a deal, and voted for it, it would go through, irrespective of what the electorate thought of it.
The relevance is , understanding what people think . If you believe the figures .
When have politicians ever been concerned about what people think?
No one said they did ..you asked what the relevance was , and I answered ..this is a thread about Brexit , I think it's interesting to see potentially what people think
The point I was making is that Brexit is purely in the hands of Parliament, and the views of the electorate may well have no bearing on the outcome. Parliament are in a position of being able to do what they wish, which may be nothing like what would be preferred by the electorate.
If it wasn't for the Gina Miller court case there wouldn't even be a meaningful vote.
As I posted earlier Jeremy Corbyn is currently ignoring a massive majority of Labour members, as well as a majority of Labour voters, who are in favour of a second referendum.
The Government is ignoring the majority of the electorate that are in favour of a second referendum, as well as a majority that are now in favour of remaining, according to the polls.
There does not appear to be an end in sight.
Even if she could get The Backstop through, which doesn't seem possible, we would be faced with years of trade deal negotiations.
Currently the most popular alternative seems to be a Norway type deal. A Norway deal would include Freedom of movement, albeit of workers, rather than people. It would also have to include The Backstop, unless we also retained membership of The Customs Union. Membership of The Customs Union would prohibit free trade deals with other countries.
A Canada style deal would require The Backstop.
How could either get through?
The whole process is in the hands of Parliament, and they seem incapable of prioritising the interests of the country.
What do you think the situation will be this time tomorrow?
What will tomorrow morning's headlines say?
Parliament rejects the deal by a large majority , labour calls for a vote of no confidence in the hope of pushing for a general election ..Theresa May resigns after immediately requesting an extension of article 50....Haysie will no doubt follow to say why none of that will happen
What do you think the situation will be this time tomorrow?
What will tomorrow morning's headlines say?
The German Foreign Minister has suggested that they might reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, after a big defeat This may put a spanner in the works regarding Jeremy Corbyns no confidence vote.
The deal will be defeated heavily.
Theresa May will head off to Brussels.
She wont resign voluntarily.
She has until Monday to come back with a plan b.
Jeremy Corbyn has emphasised that he wont call for a vote of no confidence until he can be sure of winning it. So he has to choose whether he calls it, while she has hope of more concessions from Europe, or leaves it until next week after the deal is dead and buried.
He is not guaranteed to win a no confidence vote, whenever he calls it.
He has done nothing but dither on Brexit. He seems reluctant to call the no confidence vote, as his next step according to Labour Party Policy is to support a second referendum, if he cant get an election, which he is clearly against.
So tomorrows headlines will be the deal was voted down in the biggest ever defeat, and The PM will be heading for Brussels.
The obvious thing for The Labour Party is to call for a vote of no confidence after the result of the vote is known, but I am not certain he will.
Betting markets say it’s 83% likely Brexit won’t happen by 29 March
It is now more than 83% likely that the UK won’t leave the European Union by 29 March, according to betting exchange Smarkets. The peer-to-peer trading website, which prices bets like a commodity, also says it is now 99% likely that the vote on prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will fail in Tuesday evening’s meaningful vote in the House of Commons. “All forecasts are pointing to a historically bad defeat for May,” a Smarkets statement said. “Traders on Smarkets make it 23% that fewer than 200 MPs support the deal.”
No-deal Brexit risks ‘destroying’ UK car industry with effects to be felt within hours, trade body warns
A no-deal Brexit risks “destroying” Britain’s car industry, the sector’s trade body has warned as Theresa May faces a crushing defeat on her deal in the House of Commons. Disruption to vehicle manufacturing would be felt within hours due to just-in-time production, which relies on thousands of lorries and shipments moving across borders without delay, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said.
Jim Armitage: Let's hope for another referendum to end this Brexit nightmare
When Michael Gove declares “winter is coming”, it’s tempting to look out of the window for crocuses. We’ve become so used to Machiavellian manoeuvres from the Game of Thrones fan since the referendum campaign, it’s hard not to doubt everything he says. However, as Theresa May looks set for a historic loss in parliament, Gove is right. It really does feel like a chilly day for the British economy. Not only does a no-deal Brexit loom larger than ever, but a vote of no confidence followed by a General Election is surging up towards the top of the bookies’ forecasts. And that, with the potential it brings for a Jeremy Corbyn-led government, is as bad as it gets. Most business bosses fear Corbyn more than Hard Brexit
Business groups issue dire warnings on no deal Brexit. Why aren't they being heeded?
Business groups have been sounding alarm bells as the Conservative Government’s Brexit express prepares to smash Britain into the buffers, and no wonder. John Allan, president of the CBI, said crashing out of the EU without a deal on March 29 would do “irreparable harm to the UK economy” risking jobs and more. He called on the government to find a way to avoid that situation and said now is the time for “very, very, clear leadership from the government and the time to bring people together”. Well that would be nice John, but Theresa May has spent the last two years doing the opposite on both, putting the extremists in her party and her own anti immigration zealotry ahead of the country at every step. UK Finance head Stephen Jones, meanwhile, wanted of a 1930s style economic slump, with widespread job losses, homeowners unable to afford mortgages, and mass defaults on loans. That's quite a bit worse than the recession the banks caused ten years ago.
Want more? How about this from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. No deal risks “destroying Britain’s car industry”. Scare mongering? Project fear. Nope. They’re all correct. From all the research I have done, from talking to people who know what they are talking about, through considering all the evidence, I have to agree that it will be a s***storm of truly epic proportions. Think Sharknado but with the beast from Jason Statham's 'The Meg' landing on businesses and everyone working in them and then eating them alive. So why aren’t people listening? Why do they prefer to heed extremist MPs peddling fairy tails that are so incredible no reputable publisher would touch them even were their afternoon sherries to be spiked with industrial strength LSD? One explanation might be the yawning gulf that has opened up between business leaders and the communities that they serve and operate in.
Irish business groups warn against 'devastating' consequences of no-deal Brexit
A no-deal Brexit would have “devastating economic consequences” for the whole island of Ireland, leading groups from both sides of the border have warned ahead of Tuesday’s House of Commons vote on UK prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Calling a no-deal scenario “an affront to rational thinking,” the groups said that it would “immediately put jobs and businesses at risk, and jeopardise years of positive economic development and integration across the island.” In a joint statement, leading Irish business group IBEC and the Northern Ireland branch of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said that May’s deal would limit post-Brexit disruptions to the two-nations’ economy, while a no-deal outcome “would result in an immediate and unprecedented economic shock.”
Sky were predicting she would lose the vote by 225 in December. So by pulling the vote she has accomplished nothing, and completely wasted 5 weeks, when time is running out.
The DUP have said they will support her, so she should therefore win the vote. This will put more pressure on Labour to support the referendum.
I am astonished that Theresa May is so inept as a leader. She is obviously intelligent, but seems to act more like a President, than a Prime Minister.
We operate a system of Cabinet Government. Good leaders will respect, and take notice of the opinions of The Cabinet.
She is on her third Brexit Secretary, and has been criticised for keeping them in the dark.
When The Cabinet met at Chequers, she took their phones off them, and insisted they resign if they didn't agree with the deal. She informed them if they resigned their cars would be taken off them. They would have to leave by walking to the gate, and getting a taxi.
At the end of the meeting she announced unanimous Cabinet support for the deal. Yet within a couple of days David Davis, and Boris had resigned. Obviously too lazy to walk all the way to the gate.
She has been personally responsible for much of the negotiations. Therefore there is no one else to blame for the mess we are in.
She obviously set out to negotiate a deal that would be good for the country, and that could get through Parliament.
It is absolutely incredible how far away from that goal she ended up.
We are within weeks of leaving and she is now threatening to start listening to other people.
It just goes to show how popular Jeremy Corbyn is, because as bad as Theresa May has been she is still miles clear of him in the polls.
Brexit vote: Donald Tusk suggests UK should stay in EU
European Council President Donald Tusk has suggested that the UK should stay in the EU, after the prime minister's Brexit deal was rejected in parliament. "If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?", he tweeted. MPs voted by 432 votes to 202 to reject the deal, which sets out the terms of Britain's exit from the EU on 29 March. EU officials and politicians have reacted with dismay to the result.
The majority of MPs that voted against The Government in yesterdays vote, seem to be citing The Backstop as the reason for their dissatisfaction.
The Backstop is an insurance policy which would kick in at the end of The Transition Period, only if we hadn't concluded the trade deal negotiations.
We would have a choice of extending The Transition Period, or implementing The Backstop.
The terms of The Backstop mean we would access The Single Market, and The Customs Union, so that business would not be disrupted. These arrangement would normally require us to allow Freedom of Movement, and a net annual payment of around£10billion. Neither of these conditions are applicable to The Backstop. This is clearly a favour from The EU, and meant as a short term solution, which may never come into play.
Yet MPs are complaining bitterly about exit dates, suspecting that The EU will want to keep us in it forever etc, and voted down the deal as a result.
If this were true, I think we would have got a completely different referendum result, had the electorate been offered the opportunity of Single Market benefits, staying in The Customs Union, no Freedom of Movement, and no financial obligation.
Why on earth would The EU wish to trap us in The Backstop, and why wouldn't be happy if they did.
It's now a straight-up fight between no deal and a referendum
A PM resigned to defeat, but not resigning. This thumping loss for a serving PM on the most important piece of legislation, the raison d'etre of this government, cannot credibly be framed as a mere procedural setback, which was what the PM appeared to suggest after the vote.
For others, this is a comprehensive failure of strategy, tactics and leadership that suggests that this Parliament was never going to back a deal like this. That effectively there is not a negotiated solution from Conservative MPs, DUP MPs and a few Labour rebels. But perhaps even more than that - a defeat of this magnitude so tarnishes the PM and her deal, that she cannot credibly return to the Commons with anything recognisably a version of it. It seems very difficult to imagine that there is a plausibly offered change to the deal that could turn the votes of the 116 MPs required.
The contours of this argument are now being clarified. The middle ground eroded. And what is left will be a straight up fight between no deal and a referendum, with a side order of Article 50 delay.
Amazingly The Backstop was agreed between The EU, and The PM, a year ago last December.
Various Cabinet Ministers have been battered by business leaders on conference calls, over the continuing uncertainty.
After the humiliating defeat in Parliament, The PM expressed a wish to consult other parties over the way forward.
Whilst doing this, she took the opportunity to reaffirm some of her red lines.
As it seems she would need Labour Party support to get any deal through, it would seem pointless to rule out The Customs Union, when The Labour Party are adamant about being in one.
Any discussions regarding a deal would seem pointless, as she cant get The Backstop through Parliament. The EU will not accept her current deal, Norway, or Canada, without a backstop.
Any deal she proposes will require The Backstop, unless we are in The Customs Union, and Single Market.
The Backstop was invented by The PM, to overcome The Irish Border problem, without staying in The Customs Union.
The EU have accused The PM of cherry picking from the very beginning. They meant that some of the benefits have compulsory obligations. The PM just wanted to get the benefits, and ignore the obligations. She is still at it.
The main examples are that you cant be members of The Single Market without having Freedom of Movement. Membership of The Customs Union does not allow independent trade deals.
The Labour Party are equally guilty of this, and their Brexit Policy is a complete fantasy.
What do you think the situation will be this time tomorrow?
What will tomorrow morning's headlines say?
Parliament rejects the deal by a large majority , labour calls for a vote of no confidence in the hope of pushing for a general election ..Theresa May resigns after immediately requesting an extension of article 50....Haysie will no doubt follow to say why none of that will happen
She is still adamant that she wont extend article 50.
This is despite the fact that she will require a miracle, of a loaves and fishes proportion to get The Backstop through Parliament, before the end of March.
Comments
If it wasn't for the Gina Miller court case there wouldn't even be a meaningful vote.
As I posted earlier Jeremy Corbyn is currently ignoring a massive majority of Labour members, as well as a majority of Labour voters, who are in favour of a second referendum.
The Government is ignoring the majority of the electorate that are in favour of a second referendum, as well as a majority that are now in favour of remaining, according to the polls.
There does not appear to be an end in sight.
Even if she could get The Backstop through, which doesn't seem possible, we would be faced with years of trade deal negotiations.
Currently the most popular alternative seems to be a Norway type deal. A Norway deal would include Freedom of movement, albeit of workers, rather than people. It would also have to include The Backstop, unless we also retained membership of The Customs Union. Membership of The Customs Union would prohibit free trade deals with other countries.
A Canada style deal would require The Backstop.
How could either get through?
The whole process is in the hands of Parliament, and they seem incapable of prioritising the interests of the country.
What will tomorrow morning's headlines say?
This may put a spanner in the works regarding Jeremy Corbyns no confidence vote.
The deal will be defeated heavily.
Theresa May will head off to Brussels.
She wont resign voluntarily.
She has until Monday to come back with a plan b.
Jeremy Corbyn has emphasised that he wont call for a vote of no confidence until he can be sure of winning it. So he has to choose whether he calls it, while she has hope of more concessions from Europe, or leaves it until next week after the deal is dead and buried.
He is not guaranteed to win a no confidence vote, whenever he calls it.
He has done nothing but dither on Brexit.
He seems reluctant to call the no confidence vote, as his next step according to Labour Party Policy is to support a second referendum, if he cant get an election, which he is clearly against.
So tomorrows headlines will be the deal was voted down in the biggest ever defeat, and The PM will be heading for Brussels.
The obvious thing for The Labour Party is to call for a vote of no confidence after the result of the vote is known, but I am not certain he will.
It is now more than 83% likely that the UK won’t leave the European Union by 29 March, according to betting exchange Smarkets.
The peer-to-peer trading website, which prices bets like a commodity, also says it is now 99% likely that the vote on prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will fail in Tuesday evening’s meaningful vote in the House of Commons.
“All forecasts are pointing to a historically bad defeat for May,” a Smarkets statement said. “Traders on Smarkets make it 23% that fewer than 200 MPs support the deal.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/betting-markets-say-83-likely-brexit-wont-happen-29-march-120129382.html
A no-deal Brexit risks “destroying” Britain’s car industry, the sector’s trade body has warned as Theresa May faces a crushing defeat on her deal in the House of Commons.
Disruption to vehicle manufacturing would be felt within hours due to just-in-time production, which relies on thousands of lorries and shipments moving across borders without delay, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-risks-apos-115100451.html
When Michael Gove declares “winter is coming”, it’s tempting to look out of the window for crocuses. We’ve become so used to Machiavellian manoeuvres from the Game of Thrones fan since the referendum campaign, it’s hard not to doubt everything he says.
However, as Theresa May looks set for a historic loss in parliament, Gove is right. It really does feel like a chilly day for the British economy.
Not only does a no-deal Brexit loom larger than ever, but a vote of no confidence followed by a General Election is surging up towards the top of the bookies’ forecasts.
And that, with the potential it brings for a Jeremy Corbyn-led government, is as bad as it gets.
Most business bosses fear Corbyn more than Hard Brexit
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-armitage-let-apos-hope-122200599.html
Business groups have been sounding alarm bells as the Conservative Government’s Brexit express prepares to smash Britain into the buffers, and no wonder.
John Allan, president of the CBI, said crashing out of the EU without a deal on March 29 would do “irreparable harm to the UK economy” risking jobs and more.
He called on the government to find a way to avoid that situation and said now is the time for “very, very, clear leadership from the government and the time to bring people together”.
Well that would be nice John, but Theresa May has spent the last two years doing the opposite on both, putting the extremists in her party and her own anti immigration zealotry ahead of the country at every step.
UK Finance head Stephen Jones, meanwhile, wanted of a 1930s style economic slump, with widespread job losses, homeowners unable to afford mortgages, and mass defaults on loans. That's quite a bit worse than the recession the banks caused ten years ago.
Want more? How about this from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. No deal risks “destroying Britain’s car industry”.
Scare mongering? Project fear. Nope. They’re all correct. From all the research I have done, from talking to people who know what they are talking about, through considering all the evidence, I have to agree that it will be a s***storm of truly epic proportions. Think Sharknado but with the beast from Jason Statham's 'The Meg' landing on businesses and everyone working in them and then eating them alive.
So why aren’t people listening? Why do they prefer to heed extremist MPs peddling fairy tails that are so incredible no reputable publisher would touch them even were their afternoon sherries to be spiked with industrial strength LSD?
One explanation might be the yawning gulf that has opened up between business leaders and the communities that they serve and operate in.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/business-groups-issue-dire-warnings-162100009.html
A no-deal Brexit would have “devastating economic consequences” for the whole island of Ireland, leading groups from both sides of the border have warned ahead of Tuesday’s House of Commons vote on UK prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
Calling a no-deal scenario “an affront to rational thinking,” the groups said that it would “immediately put jobs and businesses at risk, and jeopardise years of positive economic development and integration across the island.”
In a joint statement, leading Irish business group IBEC and the Northern Ireland branch of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said that May’s deal would limit post-Brexit disruptions to the two-nations’ economy, while a no-deal outcome “would result in an immediate and unprecedented economic shock.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/irish-business-groups-warn-devastating-consequences-no-deal-brexit-055701161.html
HOW MANY?
230. Wowzer.
The DUP have said they will support her, so she should therefore win the vote.
This will put more pressure on Labour to support the referendum.
I am astonished that Theresa May is so inept as a leader. She is obviously intelligent, but seems to act more like a President, than a Prime Minister.
We operate a system of Cabinet Government. Good leaders will respect, and take notice of the opinions of The Cabinet.
She is on her third Brexit Secretary, and has been criticised for keeping them in the dark.
When The Cabinet met at Chequers, she took their phones off them, and insisted they resign if they didn't agree with the deal. She informed them if they resigned their cars would be taken off them. They would have to leave by walking to the gate, and getting a taxi.
At the end of the meeting she announced unanimous Cabinet support for the deal. Yet within a couple of days David Davis, and Boris had resigned. Obviously too lazy to walk all the way to the gate.
She has been personally responsible for much of the negotiations. Therefore there is no one else to blame for the mess we are in.
She obviously set out to negotiate a deal that would be good for the country, and that could get through Parliament.
It is absolutely incredible how far away from that goal she ended up.
We are within weeks of leaving and she is now threatening to start listening to other people.
It just goes to show how popular Jeremy Corbyn is, because as bad as Theresa May has been she is still miles clear of him in the polls.
European Council President Donald Tusk has suggested that the UK should stay in the EU, after the prime minister's Brexit deal was rejected in parliament.
"If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?", he tweeted.
MPs voted by 432 votes to 202 to reject the deal, which sets out the terms of Britain's exit from the EU on 29 March.
EU officials and politicians have reacted with dismay to the result.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46887188
The Backstop is an insurance policy which would kick in at the end of The Transition Period, only if we hadn't concluded the trade deal negotiations.
We would have a choice of extending The Transition Period, or implementing The Backstop.
The terms of The Backstop mean we would access The Single Market, and The Customs Union, so that business would not be disrupted. These arrangement would normally require us to allow Freedom of Movement, and a net annual payment of around£10billion. Neither of these conditions are applicable to The Backstop. This is clearly a favour from The EU, and meant as a short term solution, which may never come into play.
Yet MPs are complaining bitterly about exit dates, suspecting that The EU will want to keep us in it forever etc, and voted down the deal as a result.
If this were true, I think we would have got a completely different referendum result, had the electorate been offered the opportunity of Single Market benefits, staying in The Customs Union, no Freedom of Movement, and no financial obligation.
Why on earth would The EU wish to trap us in The Backstop, and why wouldn't be happy if they did.
A PM resigned to defeat, but not resigning. This thumping loss for a serving PM on the most important piece of legislation, the raison d'etre of this government, cannot credibly be framed as a mere procedural setback, which was what the PM appeared to suggest after the vote.
For others, this is a comprehensive failure of strategy, tactics and leadership that suggests that this Parliament was never going to back a deal like this. That effectively there is not a negotiated solution from Conservative MPs, DUP MPs and a few Labour rebels.
But perhaps even more than that - a defeat of this magnitude so tarnishes the PM and her deal, that she cannot credibly return to the Commons with anything recognisably a version of it.
It seems very difficult to imagine that there is a plausibly offered change to the deal that could turn the votes of the 116 MPs required.
The contours of this argument are now being clarified. The middle ground eroded. And what is left will be a straight up fight between no deal and a referendum, with a side order of Article 50 delay.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/its-now-a-straight-up-fight-between-no-deal-and-a-referendum/ar-BBSiXhH?ocid=spartanntp
Various Cabinet Ministers have been battered by business leaders on conference calls, over the continuing uncertainty.
After the humiliating defeat in Parliament, The PM expressed a wish to consult other parties over the way forward.
Whilst doing this, she took the opportunity to reaffirm some of her red lines.
As it seems she would need Labour Party support to get any deal through, it would seem pointless to rule out The Customs Union, when The Labour Party are adamant about being in one.
Any discussions regarding a deal would seem pointless, as she cant get The Backstop through Parliament. The EU will not accept her current deal, Norway, or Canada, without a backstop.
Any deal she proposes will require The Backstop, unless we are in The Customs Union, and Single Market.
The Backstop was invented by The PM, to overcome The Irish Border problem, without staying in The Customs Union.
The EU have accused The PM of cherry picking from the very beginning. They meant that some of the benefits have compulsory obligations. The PM just wanted to get the benefits, and ignore the obligations. She is still at it.
The main examples are that you cant be members of The Single Market without having Freedom of Movement. Membership of The Customs Union does not allow independent trade deals.
The Labour Party are equally guilty of this, and their Brexit Policy is a complete fantasy.
This is despite the fact that she will require a miracle, of a loaves and fishes proportion to get The Backstop through Parliament, before the end of March.