If only was 28 again and capable of multi-tabling. **** my picked, old brain.
I'll swap with you...
Well, mine's had just the one careful owner, though can take a while to warm up in the mornings. And probably take the mileage with a pinch of salt, big possibility that it's been "clocked" at least once.
I was perhaps a little rash in shoving 28 big blinds pre-flop with AK (to an UTG min-raise), but, I was out of position, and had I raised smaller, I would've been forced into a call. So, all this considered, my play can probably be forgiven?
The AK lost out to QQ, btw.
Clinging on in the Mini and 29/136 in UKOPS 23, the second £20 rebuy.
Last night was a relentless case of running into monsters when holding monsterlings.
I salvaged a little by getting heads-up in the 23:30 £10 BH but, ultimately, it was a losing session.
As feared, I was/am too preoccupied to play this evening due to other interests.
Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.
The match was a welcome break from my continuous monitoring of the US General Election news and markets.
The belief that "shy right-voter" syndrome has become a far bigger factor than polls and markets believe, has served me well in 2016 (EU referendum and US General Election) and, given the 2018 mid-terms and 2019 UK GE, I saw no reason to abandon this theory.
So, after painstaking research and analysis of other factors, I came to the conclusion the polls and, in turn, markets were incorrect.
When making my decisions a week ago, I made Biden slight favourite, but not as strong a jolly as the market suggested so, decided on a small bet on Trump at around 15/8.
I felt the bigger market errors were among the individual state markets, notably Florida and Ohio were I made Trump a much stronger favourite than generally perceived.
I decided on three relatively big bets; Trump to win Ohio (1/2), Florida (10/11), Pennsylvania (15/8) - and min-bet on the Pres to flip main Maine (13/2).
A few days later, I pressed up on Florida at 8/11.
I am always nervous playing at short prices, it's not my usual MO and I've always believed that I am a better judge at 14/1 than I am at 4/6. This, and the fact that I am probably a little too heavily involved, has led to a wane of confidence over the past 48 hours. Something that wasn't helped by Trump's demeanor in an earlier interview - I saw definite concern.
Before I went to bed this morning, the market went suddenly crazy (4/6, 5/4) and I did think about taking the 4/6 Biden, to cover my 15/8 outright bet on Trump. However, the 4/6 was still not enough value (based on my own price assessment), so decided against it - something I stand by, despite the fact he is now back to 4/9.
The state bets are far more important, financially, and, numbers-wise, I am in decent shape; Ohio is now a top-price 4/11, Florida 4/7 and Penn 7/4. I've already deemed the speculative Maine bet a loser.
So, do I chicken out, or stand firm?
I have just taken 13/8 for the Dems to take Florida, to cover the stake of my second bet on the market at 8/11.
The rest I am sticking with, for now.
A couple of weeks ago I flagged up a horse called Sarah's Verse, who I felt ran better than the form-line suggests last time and could improve enough to win a race this winter. She runs in the finale at Kempton tomorrow and, at 25/1, I may include here in a betting plan in, what appears, a decent race for the grade.
Risaalaat is out of form but is well treated on a run here in July and the yard have been among the winners recently. Kylla Looks takes a step up in trip here and does have a run or two on the CV that suggests she can outrun her price. These are just ponderings, however.
I backed Excelinthejungle last time and briefly thought I had found a 40/1 winner, unfortunately he was collared late on and finished second. That race was worked out extremely well and Seamus Durack's runner need only to reproduce that effort to win this. However, there are no fancy odds on offer this time.
I've played the Mid Ex and the 00:30, though not sure why.
I am paying no attention to poker as cannot take my eyes off the election updates.
I've done some business on the Florida and outright wages. I've done the hard work so have to make it work for me. Only to save stake, I still very much need these to land.
The market is finally up to speed regarding the outright market for the US GE; generally 4/5, Evs. In my opinion, this should've been the ante-post market, instead of 2/5, 15/8.
It's going down to the wire.
Not sure if I am still in the 00:30. Maybe I am, I'm too busy clicking "refresh" buttons to care.
0/2 tonight and it truly was a case of setting fire to £33.
I squeezed myself out of the 00:30, shoving 14-bigs from the BB with A9s (3 limpers). Risky given one of the limpers was UTG and that proved my downfall. UTG called with AJ and the board gave me no help.
In other news, Trump looks home and hosed in Florida.
A couple of weeks ago I flagged up a horse called Sarah's Verse, who I felt ran better than the form-line suggests last time and could improve enough to win a race this winter. She runs in the finale at Kempton tomorrow and, at 25/1, I may include here in a betting plan in, what appears, a decent race for the grade.
Risaalaat is out of form but is well treated on a run here in July and the yard have been among the winners recently. Kylla Looks takes a step up in trip here and does have a run or two on the CV that suggests she can outrun her price. These are just ponderings, however.
I backed Excelinthejungle last time and briefly thought I had found a 40/1 winner, unfortunately he was collared late on and finished second. That race was worked out extremely well and Seamus Durack's runner need only to reproduce that effort to win this. However, there are no fancy odds on offer this time.
Florida and Ohio land in the US State General Election betting and Trump to win Pennsylvania and the election out traded short enough for all bets to end profitable.
So, a pleasing 24 hours away from poker, however, all these "distractions" led me to forget the UKOPS PLO8 tournament. ****!
Comments
I have about £51's worth of chips for my outlay.
I was perhaps a little rash in shoving 28 big blinds pre-flop with AK (to an UTG min-raise), but, I was out of position, and had I raised smaller, I would've been forced into a call. So, all this considered, my play can probably be forgiven?
The AK lost out to QQ, btw.
Clinging on in the Mini and 29/136 in UKOPS 23, the second £20 rebuy.
Holding AK under the gun, I shove all-in with a stack just shy of 20-bigs.
I was called by Aces. Which was far from ideal.
The dream of three consecutive Mini-cashes is over.
These jockeys call with anything.
My fourth and fifth tournaments of the session are to be the Reload and the UKOPS 25.
Cooler town in the UKOPS 25. Again suffering from hand vs hand coups...
The experience was enhanced by a lovely rub-down from @MAXALLY immediately after the pot.
No hard feelings, though, hopefully he will take this down and edge towards the black this year - I wish him all the very best.
I salvaged a little by getting heads-up in the 23:30 £10 BH but, ultimately, it was a losing session.
As feared, I was/am too preoccupied to play this evening due to other interests.
Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.
The match was a welcome break from my continuous monitoring of the US General Election news and markets.
The belief that "shy right-voter" syndrome has become a far bigger factor than polls and markets believe, has served me well in 2016 (EU referendum and US General Election) and, given the 2018 mid-terms and 2019 UK GE, I saw no reason to abandon this theory.
So, after painstaking research and analysis of other factors, I came to the conclusion the polls and, in turn, markets were incorrect.
When making my decisions a week ago, I made Biden slight favourite, but not as strong a jolly as the market suggested so, decided on a small bet on Trump at around 15/8.
I felt the bigger market errors were among the individual state markets, notably Florida and Ohio were I made Trump a much stronger favourite than generally perceived.
I decided on three relatively big bets; Trump to win Ohio (1/2), Florida (10/11), Pennsylvania (15/8) - and min-bet on the Pres to flip main Maine (13/2).
A few days later, I pressed up on Florida at 8/11.
I am always nervous playing at short prices, it's not my usual MO and I've always believed that I am a better judge at 14/1 than I am at 4/6. This, and the fact that I am probably a little too heavily involved, has led to a wane of confidence over the past 48 hours. Something that wasn't helped by Trump's demeanor in an earlier interview - I saw definite concern.
Before I went to bed this morning, the market went suddenly crazy (4/6, 5/4) and I did think about taking the 4/6 Biden, to cover my 15/8 outright bet on Trump. However, the 4/6 was still not enough value (based on my own price assessment), so decided against it - something I stand by, despite the fact he is now back to 4/9.
The state bets are far more important, financially, and, numbers-wise, I am in decent shape; Ohio is now a top-price 4/11, Florida 4/7 and Penn 7/4. I've already deemed the speculative Maine bet a loser.
So, do I chicken out, or stand firm?
I have just taken 13/8 for the Dems to take Florida, to cover the stake of my second bet on the market at 8/11.
The rest I am sticking with, for now.
A couple of weeks ago I flagged up a horse called Sarah's Verse, who I felt ran better than the form-line suggests last time and could improve enough to win a race this winter. She runs in the finale at Kempton tomorrow and, at 25/1, I may include here in a betting plan in, what appears, a decent race for the grade.
Risaalaat is out of form but is well treated on a run here in July and the yard have been among the winners recently. Kylla Looks takes a step up in trip here and does have a run or two on the CV that suggests she can outrun her price. These are just ponderings, however.
I backed Excelinthejungle last time and briefly thought I had found a 40/1 winner, unfortunately he was collared late on and finished second. That race was worked out extremely well and Seamus Durack's runner need only to reproduce that effort to win this. However, there are no fancy odds on offer this time.
Love your musing on various bets. More of them please.
Election bets going well. Trump into Evs outright and Florida now as short as 1/14.
Pennsylvania 11/8, too.
Ohio still holding around 1/3.
Eeek.
I am paying no attention to poker as cannot take my eyes off the election updates.
I've done some business on the Florida and outright wages. I've done the hard work so have to make it work for me. Only to save stake, I still very much need these to land.
It's going down to the wire.
Not sure if I am still in the 00:30. Maybe I am, I'm too busy clicking "refresh" buttons to care.
I squeezed myself out of the 00:30, shoving 14-bigs from the BB with A9s (3 limpers). Risky given one of the limpers was UTG and that proved my downfall. UTG called with AJ and the board gave me no help.
In other news, Trump looks home and hosed in Florida.
Kylla Looks - non-runner
Excelinthejunge - unplaced
Risaalaat - WON 22/1 => 16/1
Florida and Ohio land in the US State General Election betting and Trump to win Pennsylvania and the election out traded short enough for all bets to end profitable.
So, a pleasing 24 hours away from poker, however, all these "distractions" led me to forget the UKOPS PLO8 tournament. ****!
Risaalaat - WON 22/1 => 16/1
BOOM
She has now been a non-runner more times (7) than she has starts (6).
Very unusual.
@gpc70
I actually have a decent record in Mini Rebuys, so hoping to continue this trend.
Firstly a crippling cooler in the Mini...