I'm not a prolific golf bettor, but will invest anywhere where I feel I have an edge (or even a chance!) and I've often felt this to be the case at Augusta.
Before I start on my Masters shortlist, I have to mention Skybet's each-way terms of 1/5 odds for ELEVEN places, which is up to SIX places more than other firms.
Hideki Matsuyama has finished 5th, 7th, 11th, 19th and 32nd in the last five years here and has just joined the leaders in the Houston Open. I took 35/1 earlier today.
I've taken similar prices about Tony Finau, who, over the past few years, has looked a certain future major winner. He boasts seven top-10 finishes in his last ten majors including a 5th and 10th in two attempts here.
Paul Casey missed the cut here in 2019, but had finished in the top-20 in eight of his previous twelve Masters. He's bounce back to form in this before so, at around 66/1, I am thinking about including him in the betting plan.
Marc Leishman as a couple of decent efforts to his name around here and he is top-price with Sky at 175/1, with the attractive each-way terms he is another I am pondering.
Franceso Molinari carried my money each-way in this last year and I felt he threw his chance away late on. The Italian hasn't played that much golf since so there is a huge worry in backing, however, he's currently showing glimpses of a return to form in Houston. Around a three-figure price, worth chancing?
Matt Kuchar is another with an impressive record (without winning) at Augusta, however, this seems to have been factored in by the market, with a huge discrepancy between his each-way price and win-only price.
Feel free to agree or disagree with my thoughts and/or give some of your own.
So, to recap, three tournaments in total this evening.
Early exit in the £20 rebuy; flush over flush (three suited cards on board).
Out the Reload due to a culmination of horrors (above), ultimately shoving a 24bb stack in with AQ against a min-raise, five-handed. I ran into Kings, receiving no help.
Despite all of the above, I cashed in the Mini, again.
I shove my last 10-bigs in and get two callers. I am in front in this three-way coup, and am in decent shape to scoop a pot worth just shy of 30 big blinds.
Player
Action
Cards
Amount
Pot
Balance
roddy28
Small blind
1000.00
1000.00
14813.50
dogsdogs12
Big blind
2000.00
3000.00
76906.62
Your hole cards
7
7
mushroom1
All-in
19466.16
22466.16
0.00
RogueCell
Call
19466.16
41932.32
67757.09
Jess4
Fold
Burger306
Fold
roddy28
All-in
14813.50
56745.82
0.00
dogsdogs12
Fold
roddy28
Show
A
K
mushroom1
Show
7
7
RogueCell
Show
2
2
Flop
6
2
3
Turn
6
River
A
RogueCell
Win
Full House, 2s and 6s
56745.82
124502.91
I come stone last, of course.
So, ultimately, a profitable UKOPS including a 5/7 cash record in the Mini.
I wonder how it would've been had I run only slightly disgusting?
The white flag is being ironed tomorrow, with a view to possibly use sometime this week. I need something. I need a reason to persevere with the time spent here.
After a cup of tea I thought; why not play the Mid Ex? After all, I'm playing well enough and my luck has to change. I mean, it's been six weeks, but still, you know, even a broken clock is correct once a day.
A few hands into the Mid Ex, I call a raise with AQ.
Flop comes A35. My notes on the raiser suggest I should never pass here. It eventually goes in. He has a set of threes. A nice cooler to end the night off.
Undeterred, I play the £500 BH at 00:30. I suffer an early set-back after shoving with a straight-flush draw, only to be called by an under-pair to the board, which held - course, why wouldn't it? I can't get 80/20's home, so you're as safe as houses against me, at 45%.
I build my stack back up and find Jacks...
Player
Action
Cards
Amount
Pot
Balance
mylynn
Small blind
15.00
15.00
7670.00
nikki1974
Big blind
30.00
45.00
2430.00
Your hole cards
J
J
mushroom1
Call
30.00
75.00
1650.00
Wall3r
Raise
60.00
135.00
1940.00
200444
Call
60.00
195.00
1940.00
Bubbles33
Call
60.00
255.00
2090.00
mylynn
Call
45.00
300.00
7625.00
nikki1974
Call
30.00
330.00
2400.00
mushroom1
All-in
1650.00
1980.00
0.00
Wall3r
Fold
200444
Call
1620.00
3600.00
320.00
Bubbles33
Call
1620.00
5220.00
470.00
mylynn
Fold
nikki1974
Fold
Flop
8
3
9
200444
Bet
30.00
5250.00
290.00
Bubbles33
All-in
470.00
5720.00
0.00
200444
All-in
290.00
6010.00
0.00
Bubbles33
Unmatched bet
150.00
5860.00
150.00
mushroom1
Show
J
J
200444
Show
5
8
Bubbles33
Show
10
10
Turn
J
River
7
Bubbles33
Win
Straight to the Jack
5860.00
6010.00
I'm not sure how much more I can be expected to take?
My feelings haven't changed from last night. I feel I am suffering a far too long period of misfortune on Sky.
I keep thinking of the old adage; a change is as good as a rest.
I don't want stress, however, this is a not case of me being a bad loser. I'm not losing. My average MTT ROI is still hovering around 150% and my overall ROI is over 140%.
It's just the constant bad beats are effecting my mood and, as you can imagine, as soon as I log on, I am just waiting for more of the same. Every. Single. Night.
A lot depends on the next couple of nights.
I thought I would start small this evening, with a satellite for the main. This happened on the bubble...
Player
Action
Cards
Amount
Pot
Balance
zzgoose
Small blind
300.00
300.00
6485.00
mushroom1
Big blind
600.00
900.00
9725.00
Your hole cards
7
7
glencoelad
Fold
zzgoose
All-in
6485.00
7385.00
0.00
mushroom1
All-in
9725.00
17110.00
0.00
mushroom1
Unmatched bet
3540.00
13570.00
3540.00
zzgoose
Show
9
8
mushroom1
Show
7
7
Flop
6
Q
K
Turn
8
River
K
zzgoose
Win
Two Pairs, Kings and 8s
13570.00
13570.00
I know it's a race, and I know we all lose races but it's the manner of it all. The bubble, the mindless shove with 98o, the fact I have to call, and the turn.
Then, with my handful of blinds left, I run into AK while holding AT.
Change the record.
Though, compared to last night's hilarity, this felt like a Swedish massage.
Comments
Brutal.
PLO - lose a 75/20
Mini - lose an 80/20
£33 - lose a 60/40
I'll just copy and paste this post for tomorrow. And Monday. And Tuesday.
That'll be all, for now.
Always have been, always will be.
That is all.
Before I start on my Masters shortlist, I have to mention Skybet's each-way terms of 1/5 odds for ELEVEN places, which is up to SIX places more than other firms.
Hideki Matsuyama has finished 5th, 7th, 11th, 19th and 32nd in the last five years here and has just joined the leaders in the Houston Open. I took 35/1 earlier today.
I've taken similar prices about Tony Finau, who, over the past few years, has looked a certain future major winner. He boasts seven top-10 finishes in his last ten majors including a 5th and 10th in two attempts here.
Paul Casey missed the cut here in 2019, but had finished in the top-20 in eight of his previous twelve Masters. He's bounce back to form in this before so, at around 66/1, I am thinking about including him in the betting plan.
Marc Leishman as a couple of decent efforts to his name around here and he is top-price with Sky at 175/1, with the attractive each-way terms he is another I am pondering.
Franceso Molinari carried my money each-way in this last year and I felt he threw his chance away late on. The Italian hasn't played that much golf since so there is a huge worry in backing, however, he's currently showing glimpses of a return to form in Houston. Around a three-figure price, worth chancing?
Matt Kuchar is another with an impressive record (without winning) at Augusta, however, this seems to have been factored in by the market, with a huge discrepancy between his each-way price and win-only price.
Feel free to agree or disagree with my thoughts and/or give some of your own.
First up is the Mini (UKOPS 61), likely to be followed by the UKOPS 62.
Don't get too used to this thread.
Flush over flush (only three to the suit on the board).
Lovely stuff.
I would rather set fire to a twenty pound note (or melt one, as they are now) than rebuy.
Enough is enough.
I miss out on a bounty when my lowly pocket Kings could not defeat King-Seven off-suit.
Maybe it will be third time lucky, should I be dealt Kings again.
Unlucky on the recent run, I feel your pain.
Should've taken a bounty and built a stack here...
Early exit in the £20 rebuy; flush over flush (three suited cards on board).
Out the Reload due to a culmination of horrors (above), ultimately shoving a 24bb stack in with AQ against a min-raise, five-handed. I ran into Kings, receiving no help.
Somehow still in the Mini, though in bad shape.
We were 7 off the money in the Mini, and it was looking like I would make it 5/7 cashes in this evening over UKOPS.
Clearly I have not suffered enough punishment over the past 5-6 weeks, so I was slapped with this utter vulgarity...
Regarding decisions going forward, I feel my hand is becoming forced.
I feel like I have to play the game of my life to finish 50th on here, at the moment.
Feels like I am carrying two-stone overweight* every night.
*metaphorically speaking, before some bright spark says anything!
I shove my last 10-bigs in and get two callers. I am in front in this three-way coup, and am in decent shape to scoop a pot worth just shy of 30 big blinds.
So, ultimately, a profitable UKOPS including a 5/7 cash record in the Mini.
I wonder how it would've been had I run only slightly disgusting?
The white flag is being ironed tomorrow, with a view to possibly use sometime this week. I need something. I need a reason to persevere with the time spent here.
We shall see.
A few hands into the Mid Ex, I call a raise with AQ.
Flop comes A35. My notes on the raiser suggest I should never pass here. It eventually goes in. He has a set of threes. A nice cooler to end the night off.
Undeterred, I play the £500 BH at 00:30. I suffer an early set-back after shoving with a straight-flush draw, only to be called by an under-pair to the board, which held - course, why wouldn't it? I can't get 80/20's home, so you're as safe as houses against me, at 45%.
I build my stack back up and find Jacks...
I keep thinking of the old adage; a change is as good as a rest.
I don't want stress, however, this is a not case of me being a bad loser. I'm not losing.
My average MTT ROI is still hovering around 150% and my overall ROI is over 140%.
It's just the constant bad beats are effecting my mood and, as you can imagine, as soon as I log on, I am just waiting for more of the same. Every. Single. Night.
A lot depends on the next couple of nights.
I thought I would start small this evening, with a satellite for the main. This happened on the bubble...
Then, with my handful of blinds left, I run into AK while holding AT.
Change the record.
Though, compared to last night's hilarity, this felt like a Swedish massage.