just seen the distance and replay of race when did the shout of not to far come 2out last furlong no excitement i used to love the 10yard out oi oi at catford or any dog track come to that.
Was pretty certain they were plotting something with this horse.
Just bolted up at 28/1.
Wow. Surprised the Stewards did not take an interest in that.
I don't think the BHB worries too much about being a non-runner multiple times, as this costs owners around £150 a time (for entries) - another reason why it was clear connections were planning something, this horse has cost them a few quid in withdrawals alone.
On the book, I think they are safe as, yesterday, she was running off a mark 14lbs lower than her initial assessment. Plus, she run relatively well last time, after bolting before the start.
I think this was just your typical market (and handicapper) balls-up.
just seen the distance and replay of race when did the shout of not to far come 2out last furlong no excitement i used to love the 10yard out oi oi at catford or any dog track come to that.
Last night was a relentless case of running into monsters when holding monsterlings.
I salvaged a little by getting heads-up in the 23:30 £10 BH but, ultimately, it was a losing session.
As feared, I was/am too preoccupied to play this evening due to other interests.
Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.
The match was a welcome break from my continuous monitoring of the US General Election news and markets.
The belief that "shy right-voter" syndrome has become a far bigger factor than polls and markets believe, has served me well in 2016 (EU referendum and US General Election) and, given the 2018 mid-terms and 2019 UK GE, I saw no reason to abandon this theory.
So, after painstaking research and analysis of other factors, I came to the conclusion the polls and, in turn, markets were incorrect.
When making my decisions a week ago, I made Biden slight favourite, but not as strong a jolly as the market suggested so, decided on a small bet on Trump at around 15/8.
I felt the bigger market errors were among the individual state markets, notably Florida and Ohio were I made Trump a much stronger favourite than generally perceived.
I decided on three relatively big bets; Trump to win Ohio (1/2), Florida (10/11), Pennsylvania (15/8) - and min-bet on the Pres to flip main Maine (13/2).
A few days later, I pressed up on Florida at 8/11.
I am always nervous playing at short prices, it's not my usual MO and I've always believed that I am a better judge at 14/1 than I am at 4/6. This, and the fact that I am probably a little too heavily involved, has led to a wane of confidence over the past 48 hours. Something that wasn't helped by Trump's demeanor in an earlier interview - I saw definite concern.
Before I went to bed this morning, the market went suddenly crazy (4/6, 5/4) and I did think about taking the 4/6 Biden, to cover my 15/8 outright bet on Trump. However, the 4/6 was still not enough value (based on my own price assessment), so decided against it - something I stand by, despite the fact he is now back to 4/9.
The state bets are far more important, financially, and, numbers-wise, I am in decent shape; Ohio is now a top-price 4/11, Florida 4/7 and Penn 7/4. I've already deemed the speculative Maine bet a loser.
So, do I chicken out, or stand firm?
I have just taken 13/8 for the Dems to take Florida, to cover the stake of my second bet on the market at 8/11.
The rest I am sticking with, for now.
A couple of weeks ago I flagged up a horse called Sarah's Verse, who I felt ran better than the form-line suggests last time and could improve enough to win a race this winter. She runs in the finale at Kempton tomorrow and, at 25/1, I may include here in a betting plan in, what appears, a decent race for the grade.
Risaalaat is out of form but is well treated on a run here in July and the yard have been among the winners recently. Kylla Looks takes a step up in trip here and does have a run or two on the CV that suggests she can outrun her price. These are just ponderings, however.
I backed Excelinthejungle last time and briefly thought I had found a 40/1 winner, unfortunately he was collared late on and finished second. That race was worked out extremely well and Seamus Durack's runner need only to reproduce that effort to win this. However, there are no fancy odds on offer this time.
This evening's session will start with the Mini and the Mega, with third and fourth MTT's dependent on the time of my departure in the M&M's.
I may throw the odd dart at the UKOPS satellite.
One things is for certain, however; October starts HERE.
No horse racing business for me today, though felt there was an interesting runner the 7f handicap at Wolves (17:30). Sarah's Verse doesn't need to improve much to be competitive off her mark but, even at 33/1, I was worried enough about her draw to keep my power dry. It's extremely difficult to win 7f handicaps at Wolverhampton from stall 1.
She travelled well before, unsurprisingly, suffering traffic problems. I shall monitor her entries over the coming weeks.
Run well at Wolves on Saturday evening, finishing 4th at 22/1 (from 28s) - plenty of firms, including Skybet, I believe, were paying four places each-way.
She lost two places in the last 50 yards or so, and was probably second-best on the night - so one can upgrade the performance slightly.
Comments
The all-in pre curse strikes again. 1/9 this evening. Splendid stuff.
Losing with AA in a 3-way coup. Actually came last against 66 and AT.
This was actually the THIRD TIME I had Aces cracked in this tournament.
Play a little PLO8 HU SNG; AJ73 (me) vs AJ43 (both have one flush draw).
Opponent scoops.
Just bolted up at 28/1.
Wow. Surprised the Stewards did not take an interest in that.
On the book, I think they are safe as, yesterday, she was running off a mark 14lbs lower than her initial assessment. Plus, she run relatively well last time, after bolting before the start.
I think this was just your typical market (and handicapper) balls-up.
Called it approaching 3-out.
She lost two places in the last 50 yards or so, and was probably second-best on the night - so one can upgrade the performance slightly.
Still believe there is a little race in here.
A cunning call on the flop rightly rewarded by the perfect turn and river.
Fully deserved. Lovely stuff.
I shoved my entire stack on a 9-high flop, with the monster draw, and was called by 88, which held.
After last night, I thought my ridiculously luckless run had come to an end. Silly me.
This place is slowly sending me doolally.
GFKIKILL, HAYSIE, ozzieowen, MattBates and MAXALLY.
Have to fold, though?