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Bad Beats & Dark Horses

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  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    mushroom1 said:

    I'm barely on here, these days, but when I am it's just constant nonsense.

    Thought I would ease into tonight with a £11 DYM.

    I am 1/4, then this happened....

    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    chrisdboySmall blind75.0075.001580.00
    mushroom1Big blind150.00225.001790.00
    Your hole cards
    • Q
    • Q
    mylynnFold
    R1Fold
    chrisdboyCall75.00300.001505.00
    mushroom1All-in1790.002090.000.00
    chrisdboyAll-in1505.003595.000.00
    mushroom1Unmatched bet285.003310.00285.00
    chrisdboyShow
    • A
    • A
    mushroom1Show
    • Q
    • Q
    Flop
    • 4
    • 7
    • 4
    Turn
    • A
    River
    • A
    chrisdboyWinFour Aces3310.003310.00
    Bubbled.

    It wouldn't surprise me if I started being dealt just one card.
    twos on you get dealt the joker
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Early bath in the Mini. Lost 33% of my stack with a flush draw after raising pre. Then went to the toilet and missed QQ - why do I check what hands I missed? No good can come from this.

    Onto the Mega where I lose 10% of my stack in my very first hand, missing an up-and-down in a raised pot. I am dealt AKs the very next hand and, after a raise, I stick in a huge 3-bet worth 25 big blinds.

    My re-raise is called (eek) and my hand totally misses the flop, turn and river. Thankfully, I get a LARGE slice of luck as my opponents Q2 also misses.

    I am feeling relatively good and believe I can play fairly well before losing the huge race later on.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Pitfalls everywhere.

    I manage to dodge this blind-on-blind bullet.
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    mushroom1Small blind30.0030.0011090.00
    PaulsternBig blind60.0090.008985.00
    Your hole cards
    • 9
    • 9
    Super_OliFold
    u_owe_meFold
    AKAscottyFold
    mushroom1Call30.00120.0011060.00
    PaulsternRaise120.00240.008865.00
    mushroom1Call120.00360.0010940.00
    Flop
    • 7
    • A
    • 10
    mushroom1Check
    PaulsternCheck
    Turn
    • Q
    mushroom1Check
    PaulsternBet60.00420.008805.00
    mushroom1Call60.00480.0010880.00
    River
    • K
    mushroom1Check
    PaulsternBet60.00540.008745.00
    mushroom1Call60.00600.0010820.00
    PaulsternShow
    • Q
    • Q
    mushroom1Muck
    • 9
    • 9
    PaulsternWinThree Queens600.009345.00
    However, I lose 3,000 chips on the very next hand. I played QQ averagely and allowed the pre-flop 3-bettor's pocket Eights to hit a middle-pin on the river.

  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    mushroom1 said:



    Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.


    76% of Millwall's last 34 league games has produced under 2.5 goals (26/34).
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    And we are out of the Mega.
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    mushroom1Small blind100.00100.005085.00
    RichelBig blind200.00300.0014185.00
    Your hole cards
    • 10
    • 10
    Super_OliFold
    u_owe_meFold
    barndale1Raise400.00700.008482.50
    AKAscottyFold
    mushroom1All-in5085.005785.000.00
    RichelFold
    barndale1Call4785.0010570.003697.50
    mushroom1Show
    • 10
    • 10
    barndale1Show
    • K
    • Q
    Flop
    • 8
    • 6
    • K
    Turn
    • 2
    River
    • 2
    barndale1WinTwo Pairs, Kings and 2s10570.0014267.50
    Can't possibly fold KQ, that would be foolish.

    My average ROI has fallen 4% over the past 160 (ish) games. Given we are talking 2,428 games overall, that is quite an impact and confirms how bad the last 160 tournaments have been.

    In my first 2,270 tournaments, I had a record of one MTT win for ever 45-50 played (give or take). I am now winless in around 160 and, even more remarkable, have made just a handful of final tables in this time. Around 5-6, I think.

    My final table strike-rate in my last 160 (approx) games is around the same as my WIN strike-rate for the previous 2,270 games.

    This is new for me as, in previous poker spells, any long-term profit have never been the result of spikey peaks and troughs, but more the fruit of consistent cashes.

    It's hard to halt a downward spiral as, for most of us, confidence improves performance. A lack of confidence was undoubtedly the reason why I played the QQ hand (mentioned above) cagily/poorly.

    I just wish I had something better to report as this thread most now be a mind-numbingly repetitive read.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    One of my blind tactics this year has been to oppose/lay Goshen. I will continue to do so. I am convinced it will prove profitable over the coming months and I will be amazed if he wins any form of championship race.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    mushroom1 said:

    One of my blind tactics this year has been to oppose/lay Goshen. I will continue to do so. I am convinced it will prove profitable over the coming months and I will be amazed if he wins any form of championship race.

    Goshen 6/4 favourite and completely tailed off.

    I knew. ;)

    Hope racing fans are keeping tabs on my racing posts.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Goshen trailed in last of the ten runners.
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    mushroom1 said:

    mushroom1 said:



    Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.


    76% of Millwall's last 34 league games has produced under 2.5 goals (26/34).
    not today good team the wall lol
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    gpc70 said:

    mushroom1 said:

    mushroom1 said:



    Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.


    76% of Millwall's last 34 league games has produced under 2.5 goals (26/34).
    not today good team the wall lol
    NO for BTTS still the winner! :p

    Rowett's lost the plot. They tell me he even napped Goshen today.
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    Free scoring Middlesbrough who until today had scored just 19 goals in 18 matches before the mighty Millwall show up in town and concede 3 inside 20 mins.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    gpc70 said:

    Free scoring Middlesbrough who until today had scored just 19 goals in 18 matches before the mighty Millwall show up in town and concede 3 inside 20 mins.

    Worst team selection I've ever seen from a Millwall manager.

    Millwall Twitter was foaming at the mouth when it was released at 2pm.

    Totally bewildering and it got the treatment it deserved.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    As is often the case after big heavyweight fights, last night I spent an hour or so arguing on Twitter.

    The act of rowing on Twitter is the constant, the only change is the subject.

    I have always been a huge Tyson Fury fan and have always felt that Anthony Joshua was, generally, overrated. I've backed these opinions where possible and will continue to do so.

    During a particularly civilised exchange early this evening, someone made the point that "you can't rule out the possibility of AJ winning (against Fury)".

    He was, of course, correct. In sport it's almost impossible to completely rule out any eventualities, and, for obvious reasons, this is especially true in heavyweight boxing.

    This led me to estimate the potential outcomes of such a fight, in a way I would to calculate what I perceive as value for a particular event.

    Keeping things simple, I am imagining the fight takes place

    a) 1 x AJ UD win
    b) 2 x AJ SD/MD win or draw
    c) 2 x AJ by stoppage
    d) 3 x Fury SD/MD win
    e) 5 x Fury UD win
    f) 7 x Fury by stoppage

    a) I rounded this up (it's probably closer 0.5/20). The most realistic chance of this happening would be AJ winning three rounds by 10-8, something like that - which I guess, given Fury's record of getting back up, isn't impossible to foresee.

    b) Fury going down yet still generally dominating the fight is a more likely scenario than above, which is why a SD against Fury is, at least, twice as likely as a UD against him.

    c) although Fury's powers of recovery are like nothing we've ever seen in the division, naturally, an AJ stoppage cannot be ruled out. AJ's uppercut should be rated alongside Wilder's bombs as the most dangerous punches in heavyweight boxing and, as a Fury fan/backer, copping one of those, specifically, would be a rational concern.

    d) there is not an opponent out there who I don't believe will be out-boxed and dominated by Fury over 12 rounds. However, due to the 10-8 factor, and the current state of judging, all SD outcomes have to be considered to a point.

    e) & f) the likeliest outcomes, Fury by stoppage is my idea of the likeliest outcome but there is the chance that Fury may "choose" to hand out a boxing lesson rather than go for the kill.

    Overall it's a 5/15 split in favour of Fury, making Tyson a 1/3 chance, in my opinion. When decided what price will be value to take, we naturally must take into account betting percentages and margin for error.

    The market currently has Fury priced between 4/7 and 1/2. Which is fairly close to my assessment and makes no appeal currently, due to how long stakes would be tied up for - maybe even resulting in a void bet.

    Looking at the side markets, my projections were...
    AJ by stoppage 2/20 (9/1)
    AJ by decision or draw 3/20 (11/2)
    Fury by stoppage 7/20 (15/8)
    Fury by decision 8/20 (6/4)

    Skybet see these outcomes as 15/8, 8/1, 2/1 and 13/8, respectively.

    While the 8/1 about an AJ decision appears value against my assessment, it cannot be ignored that I rounded up "a". All things considered, I see no value, for me, in the side markets.

    I shall revisit this if we get confirmation of a fight going ahead.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    As the Whispers once said....

    And the Beats Go On...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    huggy1974Small blind500.00500.0070425.00
    Card4LifeBig blind1000.001500.0024503.75
    Your hole cards
    • K
    • 10
    AVFC1982Fold
    tomtom18Call1000.002500.0021935.00
    Taximan1Fold
    mushroom1All-in10667.5013167.500.00
    huggy1974Fold
    Card4LifeFold
    tomtom18Call9667.5022835.0012267.50
    tomtom18Show
    • Q
    • 10
    mushroom1Show
    • K
    • 10
    Flop
    • A
    • 3
    • 2
    Turn
    • A
    River
    • Q
    tomtom18WinTwo Pairs, Aces and Queens22835.0035102.50
    I am only playing one or two tournaments a night here, now. But the relentless, uncharacteristic, ultra-poor run continues.
  • stokefcstokefc Member Posts: 7,587
    mushroom1 said:

    gpc70 said:

    mushroom1 said:

    mushroom1 said:



    Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.


    76% of Millwall's last 34 league games has produced under 2.5 goals (26/34).
    not today good team the wall lol
    NO for BTTS still the winner! :p

    Rowett's lost the plot. They tell me he even napped Goshen today.
    expect boring attritional guff from Rowett that's his game and i feel for the Wall fans,
    its a good job fans aren't allowed because he hates it when fans are on his case , he loses the plot and starts having digs at fans which never ends well
    half a season was enough for us before St Peter saw sense
    gl for the rest of the season
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    stokefc said:

    mushroom1 said:

    gpc70 said:

    mushroom1 said:

    mushroom1 said:



    Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.


    76% of Millwall's last 34 league games has produced under 2.5 goals (26/34).
    not today good team the wall lol
    NO for BTTS still the winner! :p

    Rowett's lost the plot. They tell me he even napped Goshen today.
    expect boring attritional guff from Rowett that's his game and i feel for the Wall fans,
    its a good job fans aren't allowed because he hates it when fans are on his case , he loses the plot and starts having digs at fans which never ends well
    half a season was enough for us before St Peter saw sense
    gl for the rest of the season
    don't feel sorry for then were talking Millwall here.
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    shock of the night the mighty Millwall take the lead how in the name of god did that happen.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    stokefc said:

    mushroom1 said:

    gpc70 said:

    mushroom1 said:

    mushroom1 said:



    Earlier I watched Millwall keep another clean sheet, their 10th in their last 16 away league games. In their last 24 league matches (home and away) they now have a 50% clean sheet strike-rate. 22 of their last 30 league games have been under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in only 11 of those.


    76% of Millwall's last 34 league games has produced under 2.5 goals (26/34).
    not today good team the wall lol
    NO for BTTS still the winner! :p

    Rowett's lost the plot. They tell me he even napped Goshen today.
    expect boring attritional guff from Rowett that's his game and i feel for the Wall fans,
    its a good job fans aren't allowed because he hates it when fans are on his case , he loses the plot and starts having digs at fans which never ends well
    half a season was enough for us before St Peter saw sense
    gl for the rest of the season
    Thanks, mate. I can definitely see where you're coming from - he is very defensive. It worked initially, as we are fairly good at the back, so it played to our strength.

    However, you can't play like this every game (five at the back), and himself doing so has led to an extremely poor and worrying run.

    This said, after last Saturday's debacle, he saw sense, temporarily at least, and played 4-3-3 last night. In fact, with Jed Wallace as one of the midfield three, it turns into 4-2-4 with the ball.

    The change of tactics worked. Let's hope he doesn't revert to his default tactics.

    Re the figures...
    27 of the last 35 league games have been under 2.5 goals.
    4 of the last 12 games have been BTTS.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    gpc70 said:

    shock of the night the mighty Millwall take the lead how in the name of god did that happen.

    2-0 flattered Bristol City.

    Just too good.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    West Ham vs Crystal Palace tonight.

    Tricky one, for me.

    Reminds me of the 1990 World Cup final.

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