You accused me of going back to the Stone Age. These stats go back to 2003. Dont know what your point is. The totals showed they scored around 75%. Which does nothing to support your argument. Why would you just try to use one club to prove anything?
It proves nowt,apart from the guide that you think is in stone as 70+% means f ck all.
But it was your post. You posted these stats. If they mean nothing, why did you post them? You seem oblivious to the wise advice, "If you are in a deep hole stop digging". You dont seem aware of the depth of the hole that you have already dug, or conscious of the fact that you are continuing to dig. Someone with more awareness would have given up ages ago, and not continued to post increasingly silly comments.
To think that the true odds of a penalty kick are 50/50 despite all the evidence just has to be a troll. What would happen to the 50/50 odds if you moved the spot back, or put 2 keepers in? It’s quite obvious that just because an event has 2 outcomes it doesn’t mean the odds are 50/50. It’s been pointed about many times in many ways in this thread.
Roy Keane said the other players should have stepped up, we since learned that at least Grealish wanted one but Southgate picked the players. Really isn’t much of a story here.
A troll? I’ll take that as a compliment as I’ve had far worse on here. So what is your method to determine the outcome of a each penalty? Maybe the biominal distribution method, and using the total penalties as a model? With each penalty having the same probability. Different takers, but still twelve yards. Your starting point for each penalty has to be 50-50.Then the expectation is added by whom the taker is. I’m sure most folks are familiar with high percentage takers,but not all have high percentages. Phillips 61%,Mahrez58%,Angel 50%. And these are were Premier players. All above 50% for sure,not forgetting Sterling.
So with only two possibilities on each penalty, you can show me the figures and the working out of your success rate. That’s providing you have one.
Why would you concentrate on the worst ever?
And completely ignore the best?
You are idiotically claiming that the percentage that the worst player of all time in PL history scored is the norm.
A troll? I’ll take that as a compliment as I’ve had far worse on here. So what is your method to determine the outcome of a each penalty? Maybe the biominal distribution method, and using the total penalties as a model? With each penalty having the same probability. Different takers, but still twelve yards. Your starting point for each penalty has to be 50-50.Then the expectation is added by whom the taker is. I’m sure most folks are familiar with high percentage takers,but not all have high percentages. Phillips 61%,Mahrez58%,Angel 50%. And these are were Premier players. All above 50% for sure,not forgetting Sterling.
So with only two possibilities on each penalty, you can show me the figures and the working out of your success rate. That’s providing you have one.
So the minimum expectation is now 50%? I imagine the average is somewhere around 75-80 in your new calculation?
How can you ‘add the expectation’ based on the player if there’s no skill involved?
You could absolutely build a predictive model to work out what makes a successful penalty taker. Deviation between professional footballers would be much lower than for say the rest of us. I’d expect a 30 year old to be able to score more than an 85 or 10 year old. With the pros I’m sure it would come down to some combination of temperament and technique (e.g. whether the run up offers any clues to where they’re intending to put it).
Whatever the factors are I’m sure you can see that it’s based on skill, as your earlier ‘add to the expectation’ comment suggests.
A troll? I’ll take that as a compliment as I’ve had far worse on here. So what is your method to determine the outcome of a each penalty? Maybe the biominal distribution method, and using the total penalties as a model? With each penalty having the same probability. Different takers, but still twelve yards. Your starting point for each penalty has to be 50-50.Then the expectation is added by whom the taker is. I’m sure most folks are familiar with high percentage takers,but not all have high percentages. Phillips 61%,Mahrez58%,Angel 50%. And these are were Premier players. All above 50% for sure,not forgetting Sterling.
So with only two possibilities on each penalty, you can show me the figures and the working out of your success rate. That’s providing you have one.
So the minimum expectation is now 50%? I imagine the average is somewhere around 75-80 in your new calculation?
How can you ‘add the expectation’ based on the player if there’s no skill involved?
You could absolutely build a predictive model to work out what makes a successful penalty taker. Deviation between professional footballers would be much lower than for say the rest of us. I’d expect a 30 year old to be able to score more than an 85 or 10 year old. With the pros I’m sure it would come down to some combination of temperament and technique (e.g. whether the run up offers any clues to where they’re intending to put it).
Whatever the factors are I’m sure you can see that it’s based on skill, as your earlier ‘add to the expectation’ comment suggests.
50-50= equal chances of two results. Lower than 50%? Successful or unsuccessful.
Why do you seem to think there’s skill involved? I’ve seen hundreds of penalties that have no skill attached.
Is it any shot that hits the back of the net that deemed to be put there by skill? If that’s the case , every single thing done on a pitch must be regarded as skill. Expectation comes from player A having a better record on pens than player B. The public will think the likelihood of player A scoring is greater than player B. As you might think Kane had a better chance than Maguire. You seem to think all the players walking up to take a pen in the Euro final were on a 80-20? There’s a reason players looked relieved when they score,and it’s not because they think they’re on an 80-20 or 70-30. The Euro final shootout and one mentioned on here is standard , is not unusual. 50% and 58.3%. The collated success percentage is a false representation,as most will be in league games. There’s often nothing riding on some of those pens,as the games are often over. So that success rate should be a lot lower. That’s no guide to a single pen.
So the Premier League's worst penalty takers are at 50%, so nobody is running worse than expectation if it's a 50/50? They must all be getting very lucky very consistently.
You've not explained why you are setting the expectation at 50/50, aside from the fact that it either goes in or doesn't, and to suggest anything with only 2 outcomes is always 50/50 is quite obviously ridiculous as pointed out many times in the thread.
It's obvious the odds favour the taker, they know where their attempt is going where as the keeper is guessing
The odds actually favour the taker scoring in every case. Every player has massively shorter odds for scoring, rather than missing. This is obviously because the overwhelming majority are scored.
If anybody wants to put big bets on long odds on shots to score from the spot, then stick the bets up on this thread. Good luck.
You are completely in the wrong. The odds below prove that you were wrong on your claim that bookies dont offer odds on shootouts. So you said they dont offer odds, and they very obviously do.
You then said there is no skill in taking penalties. The odds for Harry Kane being in the England first five was 1/16. Other players were 100/1. Someone that is sixteen to one on, is surely considered a more skilled penalty taker than someone that is 100/1 against. What could be an alternative reason. Wrong again. Why was Harry Kane first choice? Perhaps it was because he is considered Englands best penalty taker?
The third point was that they are a 50/50 chance to score. If this was the case then surely every player would be even money. This is clearly not the case. Every player is long odds on to score. They are all odds against to miss. Harry Kane is 2/11 to score 4/1 to miss. If bookies started offering even money on Harry Kane penalties they would be bankrupt before very long. Wrong again.
I am not sure whether just you cant see this, or maybe you cant admit you are wrong. The only alternative is that you are as thick as two short planks.
Betfair: Full England penalty shootout Kane - Score: 2/11 Miss: 4/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 1/16
Sterling - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 1/6
Trippier - Score: 2/11 Miss: 4/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 1/4
Rice - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 8/13
Henderson - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/4
Pickford - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 2/1
Foden - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/4
Grealish - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 5/4
Walker - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 12/1
Shaw - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 14/1
Chilwell - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 14/1
Phillips - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 25/1
James - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/2
Maguire - Score: 1/3 Miss: 5/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 11/2
Stones - Score: 4/11 Miss: 9/4 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 66/1
Saka - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/4
Mount - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 3/1
Rashford - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 4/6
Sancho - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 12/1
Bellingham - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 12/1
Calvert-Lewin - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/1
Mings - Score: 4/11 Miss: 9/4 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 100/1
Coady- Score: 1/3 Miss: 5/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 100/1
So the Premier League's worst penalty takers are at 50%, so nobody is running worse than expectation if it's a 50/50? They must all be getting very lucky very consistently.
You've not explained why you are setting the expectation at 50/50, aside from the fact that it either goes in or doesn't, and to suggest anything with only 2 outcomes is always 50/50 is quite obviously ridiculous as pointed out many times in the thread.
Its only you two left now. Last one out, turn the lights off.
How do you explain that 11x winning Ballon D’or players can not convert from twelve yards so many times? 12 if including Ronaldinho. They’ve missed nearly half the total. The reason it’s in their ‘ allowable miss percentage basket’ will not cut the mustard. Should they even miss at all, given their accolades? 27. Messi 27. Ronaldo 19.Totti 13 Lampard 13 Ronaldinho 12 Aguero 11Van Nistelrooy.
How do you explain that 11x winning Ballon D’or players can not convert from twelve yards so many times? 12 if including Ronaldinho. They’ve missed nearly half the total. The reason it’s in their ‘ allowable miss percentage basket’ will not cut the mustard. Should they even miss at all, given their accolades? 27. Messi 27. Ronaldo 19.Totti 13 Lampard 13 Ronaldinho 12 Aguero 11Van Nistelrooy.
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt
How do you explain that 11x winning Ballon D’or players can not convert from twelve yards so many times? 12 if including Ronaldinho. They’ve missed nearly half the total. The reason it’s in their ‘ allowable miss percentage basket’ will not cut the mustard. Should they even miss at all, given their accolades? 27. Messi 27. Ronaldo 19.Totti 13 Lampard 13 Ronaldinho 12 Aguero 11Van Nistelrooy.
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt
So for a penalty, you need to put in some stats?
Maybe the stats of the taker? Stats of the keeper? The importance of the penalty? Which can also apply not just to the current score, but the time left in the game. So like a horse priced up at odds on , the ball knows it’s odds?
All the goals the keeper gets a good hand to, but just fails to keep out. The wonderful penalties that go in just by the angle. Two inches offline,hits the bar or post,the penalty is classed as an ‘ effort’.
Comments
You posted these stats.
If they mean nothing, why did you post them?
You seem oblivious to the wise advice, "If you are in a deep hole stop digging".
You dont seem aware of the depth of the hole that you have already dug, or conscious of the fact that you are continuing to dig.
Someone with more awareness would have given up ages ago, and not continued to post increasingly silly comments.
And completely ignore the best?
You are idiotically claiming that the percentage that the worst player of all time in PL history scored is the norm.
Stop digging.
How can you ‘add the expectation’ based on the player if there’s no skill involved?
You could absolutely build a predictive model to work out what makes a successful penalty taker. Deviation between professional footballers would be much lower than for say the rest of us. I’d expect a 30 year old to be able to score more than an 85 or 10 year old. With the pros I’m sure it would come down to some combination of temperament and technique (e.g. whether the run up offers any clues to where they’re intending to put it).
Whatever the factors are I’m sure you can see that it’s based on skill, as your earlier ‘add to the expectation’ comment suggests.
Lower than 50%? Successful or unsuccessful.
Why do you seem to think there’s skill involved?
I’ve seen hundreds of penalties that have no skill attached.
Is it any shot that hits the back of the net that deemed to be put there by skill?
If that’s the case , every single thing done on a pitch must be regarded as skill.
Expectation comes from player A having a better record on pens than player B.
The public will think the likelihood of player A scoring is greater than player B.
As you might think Kane had a better chance than Maguire.
You seem to think all the players walking up to take a pen in the Euro final were on a 80-20?
There’s a reason players looked relieved when they score,and it’s not because they think they’re on an 80-20 or 70-30.
The Euro final shootout and one mentioned on here is standard , is not unusual. 50% and 58.3%.
The collated success percentage is a false representation,as most will be in league games.
There’s often nothing riding on some of those pens,as the games are often over.
So that success rate should be a lot lower.
That’s no guide to a single pen.
You've not explained why you are setting the expectation at 50/50, aside from the fact that it either goes in or doesn't, and to suggest anything with only 2 outcomes is always 50/50 is quite obviously ridiculous as pointed out many times in the thread.
Every player has massively shorter odds for scoring, rather than missing.
This is obviously because the overwhelming majority are scored.
The odds below prove that you were wrong on your claim that bookies dont offer odds on shootouts.
So you said they dont offer odds, and they very obviously do.
You then said there is no skill in taking penalties.
The odds for Harry Kane being in the England first five was 1/16.
Other players were 100/1.
Someone that is sixteen to one on, is surely considered a more skilled penalty taker than someone that is 100/1 against.
What could be an alternative reason.
Wrong again.
Why was Harry Kane first choice?
Perhaps it was because he is considered Englands best penalty taker?
The third point was that they are a 50/50 chance to score.
If this was the case then surely every player would be even money.
This is clearly not the case.
Every player is long odds on to score.
They are all odds against to miss.
Harry Kane is 2/11 to score 4/1 to miss.
If bookies started offering even money on Harry Kane penalties they would be bankrupt before very long.
Wrong again.
I am not sure whether just you cant see this, or maybe you cant admit you are wrong.
The only alternative is that you are as thick as two short planks.
Betfair: Full England penalty shootout
Kane - Score: 2/11 Miss: 4/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 1/16
Sterling - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 1/6
Trippier - Score: 2/11 Miss: 4/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 1/4
Rice - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 8/13
Henderson - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/4
Pickford - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 2/1
Foden - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/4
Grealish - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 5/4
Walker - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 12/1
Shaw - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 14/1
Chilwell - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 14/1
Phillips - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 25/1
James - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/2
Maguire - Score: 1/3 Miss: 5/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 11/2
Stones - Score: 4/11 Miss: 9/4 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 66/1
Saka - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/4
Mount - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 3/1
Rashford - Score: 1/5 Miss: 7/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 4/6
Sancho - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 12/1
Bellingham - Score: 1/4 Miss: 3/1 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 12/1
Calvert-Lewin - Score: 2/9 Miss: 10/3 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 9/1
Mings - Score: 4/11 Miss: 9/4 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 100/1
Coady- Score: 1/3 Miss: 5/2 Take 1st-5th England penalty: 100/1
Last one out, turn the lights off.
How do you explain that 11x winning Ballon D’or players can not convert from twelve yards so many times? 12 if including Ronaldinho.
They’ve missed nearly half the total.
The reason it’s in their ‘ allowable miss percentage basket’ will not cut the mustard.
Should they even miss at all, given their accolades?
27. Messi
27. Ronaldo
19.Totti
13 Lampard
13 Ronaldinho
12 Aguero
11Van Nistelrooy.
Haysie is my Wife ......... go figure. just to lighten the mood.
Ronaldo 5x
Ronaldinho just the once.
Maybe the stats of the taker?
Stats of the keeper?
The importance of the penalty?
Which can also apply not just to the current score, but the time left in the game.
So like a horse priced up at odds on , the ball knows it’s odds?
Of course the above mean nowt.
The wonderful penalties that go in just by the angle.
Two inches offline,hits the bar or post,the penalty is classed as an ‘ effort’.