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Next Conservative leader

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  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    TV debates do not help the cause of Mrs Truss.

    I think too much weight is placed upon a person's ability to speak in public-it is far more important in relation to what they do, as opposed to what they say or how well they say it.

    But the fact remains that she is a dreadful public speaker.
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 169,683
    Essexphil said:

    TV debates do not help the cause of Mrs Truss.

    I think too much weight is placed upon a person's ability to speak in public-it is far more important in relation to what they do, as opposed to what they say or how well they say it.

    But the fact remains that she is a dreadful public speaker.

    Disastrously bad. Did you notice she does not know what to do with her hands when speaking.

    Crazy really, she could do a quick "public speaking" course for the sake of 2 or 3 hours & be so much better, but her vanity prevents her, as she thinks she is fine. Hard to recall a worst public speaker at that level.

    And twice last night she trumpeted as achievements - "I get things done" - trade deals with Australia & Japan. In context, these deals were miniscule & of no relevance at all. And yet she boasted about them.

    God help us if she were to win.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    This is quite a good link.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    TV debates do not help the cause of Mrs Truss.

    I think too much weight is placed upon a person's ability to speak in public-it is far more important in relation to what they do, as opposed to what they say or how well they say it.

    But the fact remains that she is a dreadful public speaker.

    There were a couple of pundits on NewsNight last night reviewing the debate.
    The two things they had in common was that Badenoch was second, and Truss last.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    The Right of the Party are certainly trying to remove Mordaunt, and get Truss into Number 10.

    Who does Truss remind me of most? Jeremy Corbyn.

    Unelectable.

    In relation to the Country. Regardless of what the Conservatives think.

    How can a candidate that wont admit that Boris was a liar, get elected to be our next PM?

    Tory MPs squirm as they are asked whether Boris Johnson is 'an honest man' in first TV debate



    But the debate's opening questions were dominated by the shadow of Mr Johnson's time in office, with Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Rishi Sunak and Mr Tugendhat asked if he is an honest man.

    Mr Tugendhat, a long-term critic of the PM, then received a round of applause from the studio audience when he was the only candidate to simply reply 'no'.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-mps-squirm-as-they-are-asked-whether-boris-johnson-is-an-honest-man-in-first-tv-debate/ar-AAZCIMG?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=07732313e874440fb0ce87e001704679
    To be fair, this was a far easier question for Mr Tugendhat to answer.

    If any of the other Candidates had never been a Minister under Boris, they would have found the question easy, too.

    It is the follow-up questions that cause the others problems, namely "when did you realise this" and "why did you continue in his Government afterwards"

    It's not a bad thing being disliked by Boris. But it has left him short of hands-on experience.
    I understand that.
    However, you would hope that any candidate wishing to continue to defend the indefensible, would be damaging their chances of winning.
    Anyone left in the UK that thinks that Boris Johnson was truthful is a moron.

    It just seems strange that we would elect a new PM that couldnt admit this.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    I find the odds a little surprising.
    I am not sure how Mordaunt got to be favourite.
    Although much seems to have been made of a Tory members poll, that consisted of less than 1,000 members.

    Assuming there are no dramatic changes as a result of the TV debates, Tugendhat goes out on Monday.
    His votes are likely to be split between Sunak, and Mordaunt.
    This could put Sunak over the line.
    Unlikely to put Mordaunt over the line unless she could get just about all of them.

    The Braverman votes are likely to go to Truss.
    The means that Badenoch exits in the next vote after Monday.

    Truss will benefit from the Badenoch votes.
    This would get her into the final two.

    So unless some votes are lent to Badenoch in order to eliminate Truss, it seems that the final two will be Sunak and Truss.

    This is a shame, I will be praying for a Tugendhat miracle.
    My second choice would be Sunak.
    Although this is mostly because he is not Truss.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    Tikay10 said:

    Essexphil said:

    TV debates do not help the cause of Mrs Truss.

    I think too much weight is placed upon a person's ability to speak in public-it is far more important in relation to what they do, as opposed to what they say or how well they say it.

    But the fact remains that she is a dreadful public speaker.

    Disastrously bad. Did you notice she does not know what to do with her hands when speaking.

    Crazy really, she could do a quick "public speaking" course for the sake of 2 or 3 hours & be so much better, but her vanity prevents her, as she thinks she is fine. Hard to recall a worst public speaker at that level.

    And twice last night she trumpeted as achievements - "I get things done" - trade deals with Australia & Japan. In context, these deals were miniscule & of no relevance at all. And yet she boasted about them.

    God help us if she were to win.
    Exactly this.

    Like many Lawyers, I have done rather a lot of public speaking. I have both run courses on this in the past, and been on them-because one can always learn new things.

    She genuinely believes that merely sounding a bit like Margaret Thatcher will do. While forgetting that Mrs Thatcher was both of a different time, and (as a former Barrister) had rather more experience in public speaking.

    Mrs Truss has a major problem in that (IMO) all of her 4 rivals have either better natural ability at public speaking, or more training, or (more likely) both.

    She has rather more Ministerial experience than all 4 of her rivals. But she most certainly neither has the ability to get things done, or even realise that she has not.

    She should be able to point to her longer track record. But there is little of substance there.

    If Yes Minister had ever come up with a script involving Brexit. Which involved someone who had never been elected (Lord Frost) complaining about unelected EU bureaucrats. During a vote which he is unable to vote. And the Right Wing, hardline Brexiteers claiming that the only way Brexit could be achieved is to get behind the 1 person who voted to Remain. The hero of the Right. Er-the former Lib Dem Remainer Liz Truss.

    The Cheese Lady.

    It would have been funny. But it would never have been made. Far too unbelievable.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    HAYSIE said:

    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    I find the odds a little surprising.
    I am not sure how Mordaunt got to be favourite.
    Although much seems to have been made of a Tory members poll, that consisted of less than 1,000 members.

    Assuming there are no dramatic changes as a result of the TV debates, Tugendhat goes out on Monday.
    His votes are likely to be split between Sunak, and Mordaunt.
    This could put Sunak over the line.
    Unlikely to put Mordaunt over the line unless she could get just about all of them.

    The Braverman votes are likely to go to Truss.
    The means that Badenoch exits in the next vote after Monday.

    Truss will benefit from the Badenoch votes.
    This would get her into the final two.

    So unless some votes are lent to Badenoch in order to eliminate Truss, it seems that the final two will be Sunak and Truss.

    This is a shame, I will be praying for a Tugendhat miracle.
    My second choice would be Sunak.
    Although this is mostly because he is not Truss.
    This should, ordinarily, be the way this sort of thing works.

    But I do not believe Badenoch is as close to Truss as people think.

    I think she will relish her role as Kingmaker, and try to get the best job possible to position herself as a future leader.

    Best for Boris replaced by Best for Badenoch.

    My bet is still on a carve up between the 3 or 4.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 8,780
    edited July 2022
    Not always a fan of Jess Phillips. But this article is powerful:-

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/voices-one-thing-none-tory-112845308.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    Not always a fan of Jess Phillips. But this article is powerful:-

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/voices-one-thing-none-tory-112845308.html

    Yes it is, but she was shooting at an open goal.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    I find the odds a little surprising.
    I am not sure how Mordaunt got to be favourite.
    Although much seems to have been made of a Tory members poll, that consisted of less than 1,000 members.

    Assuming there are no dramatic changes as a result of the TV debates, Tugendhat goes out on Monday.
    His votes are likely to be split between Sunak, and Mordaunt.
    This could put Sunak over the line.
    Unlikely to put Mordaunt over the line unless she could get just about all of them.

    The Braverman votes are likely to go to Truss.
    The means that Badenoch exits in the next vote after Monday.

    Truss will benefit from the Badenoch votes.
    This would get her into the final two.

    So unless some votes are lent to Badenoch in order to eliminate Truss, it seems that the final two will be Sunak and Truss.

    This is a shame, I will be praying for a Tugendhat miracle.
    My second choice would be Sunak.
    Although this is mostly because he is not Truss.
    This should, ordinarily, be the way this sort of thing works.

    But I do not believe Badenoch is as close to Truss as people think.

    I think she will relish her role as Kingmaker, and try to get the best job possible to position herself as a future leader.

    Best for Boris replaced by Best for Badenoch.

    My bet is still on a carve up between the 3 or 4.
    I cant see that happening, as all of the top 3 will be thinking that they can win.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    I find the odds a little surprising.
    I am not sure how Mordaunt got to be favourite.
    Although much seems to have been made of a Tory members poll, that consisted of less than 1,000 members.

    Assuming there are no dramatic changes as a result of the TV debates, Tugendhat goes out on Monday.
    His votes are likely to be split between Sunak, and Mordaunt.
    This could put Sunak over the line.
    Unlikely to put Mordaunt over the line unless she could get just about all of them.

    The Braverman votes are likely to go to Truss.
    The means that Badenoch exits in the next vote after Monday.

    Truss will benefit from the Badenoch votes.
    This would get her into the final two.

    So unless some votes are lent to Badenoch in order to eliminate Truss, it seems that the final two will be Sunak and Truss.

    This is a shame, I will be praying for a Tugendhat miracle.
    My second choice would be Sunak.
    Although this is mostly because he is not Truss.
    This should, ordinarily, be the way this sort of thing works.

    But I do not believe Badenoch is as close to Truss as people think.

    I think she will relish her role as Kingmaker, and try to get the best job possible to position herself as a future leader.

    Best for Boris replaced by Best for Badenoch.

    My bet is still on a carve up between the 3 or 4.
    There are two TV debates left, which will allow them to improve their position, or not.
    Both Sunak and Truss dont want Mordaunt in the final two.
    Badenochs elimination may leave Truss and Sunak in the last two, and it is not certain which of them the membership would elect.
    Isnt it more likely that if this was the case they would go out to the membership, with an agreement for a big job for the loser.
    Any carve up with 3 left would mean two of them giving up.
    I cant see it.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Essexphil said:

    Not always a fan of Jess Phillips. But this article is powerful:-

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/voices-one-thing-none-tory-112845308.html

    This is worth a watch.

    The Unmaking of Boris Johnson

    https://news.sky.com/video/the-unmaking-of-boris-johnson-12652837
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 169,683
    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    I find the odds a little surprising.
    I am not sure how Mordaunt got to be favourite.
    Although much seems to have been made of a Tory members poll, that consisted of less than 1,000 members.

    Assuming there are no dramatic changes as a result of the TV debates, Tugendhat goes out on Monday.
    His votes are likely to be split between Sunak, and Mordaunt.
    This could put Sunak over the line.
    Unlikely to put Mordaunt over the line unless she could get just about all of them.

    The Braverman votes are likely to go to Truss.
    The means that Badenoch exits in the next vote after Monday.

    Truss will benefit from the Badenoch votes.
    This would get her into the final two.

    So unless some votes are lent to Badenoch in order to eliminate Truss, it seems that the final two will be Sunak and Truss.

    This is a shame, I will be praying for a Tugendhat miracle.
    My second choice would be Sunak.
    Although this is mostly because he is not Truss.
    This should, ordinarily, be the way this sort of thing works.

    But I do not believe Badenoch is as close to Truss as people think.

    I think she will relish her role as Kingmaker, and try to get the best job possible to position herself as a future leader.

    Best for Boris replaced by Best for Badenoch.

    My bet is still on a carve up between the 3 or 4.
    There are two TV debates left, which will allow them to improve their position, or not.
    Both Sunak and Truss dont want Mordaunt in the final two.
    Badenochs elimination may leave Truss and Sunak in the last two, and it is not certain which of them the membership would elect.
    Isnt it more likely that if this was the case they would go out to the membership, with an agreement for a big job for the loser.
    Any carve up with 3 left would mean two of them giving up.
    I cant see it.
    I can't see Sunak ever being willing to give Truss any senior job, he showed clear contempt for her in last night's debate, the body language was awful.
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Tikay10 said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Essexphil said:

    HAYSIE said:

    Tikay10 said:

    Current odds to be next Conservative Leader.

    Prices vary, but I've used Betfair Exchange as these best represent the true odds.




    Mordaunt Evens

    Sunak 21/10

    Truss 26/5

    Badenoch 28/1

    Tugendhat 44/1

    I find the odds a little surprising.
    I am not sure how Mordaunt got to be favourite.
    Although much seems to have been made of a Tory members poll, that consisted of less than 1,000 members.

    Assuming there are no dramatic changes as a result of the TV debates, Tugendhat goes out on Monday.
    His votes are likely to be split between Sunak, and Mordaunt.
    This could put Sunak over the line.
    Unlikely to put Mordaunt over the line unless she could get just about all of them.

    The Braverman votes are likely to go to Truss.
    The means that Badenoch exits in the next vote after Monday.

    Truss will benefit from the Badenoch votes.
    This would get her into the final two.

    So unless some votes are lent to Badenoch in order to eliminate Truss, it seems that the final two will be Sunak and Truss.

    This is a shame, I will be praying for a Tugendhat miracle.
    My second choice would be Sunak.
    Although this is mostly because he is not Truss.
    This should, ordinarily, be the way this sort of thing works.

    But I do not believe Badenoch is as close to Truss as people think.

    I think she will relish her role as Kingmaker, and try to get the best job possible to position herself as a future leader.

    Best for Boris replaced by Best for Badenoch.

    My bet is still on a carve up between the 3 or 4.
    There are two TV debates left, which will allow them to improve their position, or not.
    Both Sunak and Truss dont want Mordaunt in the final two.
    Badenochs elimination may leave Truss and Sunak in the last two, and it is not certain which of them the membership would elect.
    Isnt it more likely that if this was the case they would go out to the membership, with an agreement for a big job for the loser.
    Any carve up with 3 left would mean two of them giving up.
    I cant see it.
    I can't see Sunak ever being willing to give Truss any senior job, he showed clear contempt for her in last night's debate, the body language was awful.
    You are probably right.
    Excluding Tom Tugendhat, there seems to be no love lost between the other 4.
  • thefallthefall Member Posts: 1,976
    edited July 2022
    I live in Leics ( shame I married into it ) 😉.

    My very good friend Vijay says tories love ' brown' because they are loyal. But they will never elect one ( his words not mine).

    Lay Rishi has to be the call

    Simples
  • DoublemeDoubleme Member Posts: 2,150
    Rishi is gaining on Penny in the odds!!!!! they almost look even now there could be hope yet!!! come on Rishi!!!!
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    ohnson’s plan to give peerages to two MPs could leave successor facing early byelections


    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/johnson-plan-peerages-two-mps-143810598.html
  • HAYSIEHAYSIE Member Posts: 35,862
    Boris Johnson's 'Clapped-Out' Government Grinds To A Halt As Tory Civil War Erupts


    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnsons-clapped-government-grinds-040002445.html
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