In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2014 Season! (DP World Tour Championship Dubai) : I've not checked prices yet Charles. But he did lap everyone round here 2/3 years ago didn't he?? When I saw the entry list, the 1st name to jump out at me was your mate Ousthuizen Posted by joesman1
Don't think so. I just looked through the last 4-5 years and apart from last year when Bjorn won I can't see this course being used before...
I did initially think Louis (Naturally) as he is coming back ot form, but if you look at how he started last year he was in very good form and still only managed a mid-table finish.
Think I'll dodge this event and wait for the weaker players to join the field
Ahhh, your knowledge proves better than mine as usual. Just did a wiki search and it's classed as a sunshine tour event, that's why I couldn't find it. Yes you are right. He won in 2010 by 8 shots, then won again the year after by 2. That is however 3 years ago now and without doubt his game isn't where it was.
Looking at the stats for the Nedbank last year, those at the top of the leaderboard where those with the best GIR stats for the week.
As you guys have pointed out, Lee Westwood has done well in the past and I think its also significant that fellow tee to green specialist, Robert Allenby won here.
Simple logic for me was to check the GIR stats for the tour and go with the highest ranked player.
That turned out to be Danny Willett, I don't think he's played here before but I don't need much of an excuse to back Willett.
I think Martin Kaymer is also worth his place on the shortlist.
However looking at past course form and recent form, I really like Tim Clark at 22/1, in a shortened field 22/1 is just about big enough to go ew in my book.
As for Tiger's tournament, I'm going with Rickie fowler at 12/1.
Its a new venue this year, but it seems that quite a few of the players know the course very well including Tiger himself, I don't think Rickie is one of those that can boast good course knowledge, but I'm going with him as he seems to be playing so well every time he turns up at the moment.
I've also had a dabble in Indonesia, going with David Lipsky at 20/1, after a great first season on the European Tour, he's headed back out to Asia, where he is leading the Asian Tour with 3 events to play.
Looking at the stats for the Nedbank last year, those at the top of the leaderboard where those with the best GIR stats for the week. As you guys have pointed out, Lee Westwood has done well in the past and I think its also significant that fellow tee to green specialist, Robert Allenby won here. Simple logic for me was to check the GIR stats for the tour and go with the highest ranked player. That turned out to be Danny Willett, I don't think he's played here before but I don't need much of an excuse to back Willett. I think Martin Kaymer is also worth his place on the shortlist. However looking at past course form and recent form, I really like Tim Clark at 22/1 , in a shortened field 22/1 is just about big enough to go ew in my book. As for Tiger's tournament, I'm going with Rickie fowler at 12/1. Its a new venue this year, but it seems that quite a few of the players know the course very well including Tiger himself, I don't think Rickie is one of those that can boast good course knowledge, but I'm going with him as he seems to be playing so well every time he turns up at the moment. I've also had a dabble in Indonesia, going with David Lipsky at 20/1 , after a great first season on the European Tour, he's headed back out to Asia, where he is leading the Asian Tour with 3 events to play. Singles, Doubles and Treble in place. Posted by TheDart
Although u never actually said u had backed him (Willett), I'm 99% certain u have done, so well done.
Yes I was on Danny Willett, I was on ew at 25/1 pre tournament and 16/1 in running half way through day 1.
I've sang his praises so many times this year, I was kind of embarrassed to post too strongly in favor of him again.
Anyway I'll be remaining firmly in the Danny Willett camp next season, as I'm on him for the Race to Dubai, ew at 66/1 with out Rory and ew at 80/1 against the field.
Cheers Neil, Yes I was on Danny Willett, I was on ew at 25/1 pre tournament and 16/1 in running half way through day 1. I've sang his praises so many times this year, I was kind of embarrassed to post too strongly in favor of him again. Anyway I'll be remaining firmly in the Danny Willett camp next season, as I'm on him for the Race to Dubai, ew at 66/1 with out Rory and ew at 80/1 against the field. Posted by TheDart
Has he covered De-Laets losses?? ..... Lol lol....
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! : Lol yes, I've probably broke even on my investments on my 2 favorite glass back golfers. Just in case you are wandering, I haven't backed DeLaet for the 2014/15 PGA Tour Money List. I'm waiting to hear that he's been working with putting guru Dave Stockton before I wade into the 150/1 Posted by TheDart
Sorry mate, but u left an open goal, and I wasn't going to turn it down..... Btw agree with your Willett stance on next year. When did u back him, as today's earnings count don't they?
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! : Sorry mate, but u left an open goal, and I wasn't going to turn it down..... Btw agree with your Willett stance on next year. When did u back him, as today's earnings count don't they? Posted by joesman1
Yes today's earnings count and I was very much aware of that.
I backed him at 66/1 without Rory on Thursday morning as I felt he could be in for a big week.
I took the 80/1 this morning before the 4th round.
I posted a couple of weeks ago Danny Willett looked to be driving the ball impressively well, in fact the way he played this week I thought it was very similar to the way Rory attacks a course.
I'm not suggesting for a minute he is in the same class as Rory, but the win this week sets him up nicely for next year, confidence and game can move to the next level and it will also ensure he gets into some of the WGC's.
Great work Darty. Glad he's finally paying off Posted by FlashFlush
Thanks Flash, yes I've said it before this golf betting's all about timing, unfortunately for me I have tended to be a little ahead of my time this year, so it was nice to see the faith pay off before the end of the year.
Really looking forward to seeing if Danny Willett can kick on in 2015 now, just hope he doesn't strain his back lifting too many trophy's
By the way I said GIR stats were my strategy this week, well Willett finished tied 3rd for GIR along with 3rd placed Luke Donald and the GIR leader for the week was 2nd placed Ross Fisher.
My other pick Tim Clark finished the week ranked 2nd for GIR, but struggles on the greens meant he could only manage 7th
Think I might be following the GIR stats again in this event next year.
Spieth V Rory next year..... Bring it on Posted by joesman1
I didn't see much of it, but following on from his win in Australia last week, to turn up in Florida a few days later and shoot 26 under par for the week, lapping the field by 10 shots is mightily impressive.
It should be an interesting 2015, as you say, bring it on!
Very interested to see how they price up this week. Schwartzel 'owns' this event, and I expect Ousthuisen to be short too... Prob 5/1 and 8/1 ish.... But wow... Schwartzel was all over the place at the weekend, military golf. Left, right, left, right... And as for Oushuizen, he couldn't putt if his life depended on it. I'm not sure Willett is the type to go back to back, as he likes to party... So I'm thinking plenty of value outside the top 3.... Might be tempted by Coatzee, as he didn't play too badly, just kept missing the greens on the wrong side in Sun City. Hope he's 20/1 +. Let's wait and see the prices....
Just the seen the odds are starting to filter through. I think 20/1 for George is too short as a serial bottler. Otto loves playing in SA and has had some competitive results on tour lately. Adilson has come out at 100/1, so maybe a top 10 place is more likely.
Can't argue with that early analysis from Joesman, initial thoughts are its difficult to get on anyone this week with a great deal of confidence.
A follow up win and the ranking points that come with it could be enough for Danny Willett to make the top Worlds Top 50 and lock up a spot in The Masters, so I reckon he will have resisted any major celebrations. Still a big ask to win 2 weeks on the run though.
In addition to the names, you've got the Sunshine Tour regulars to consider and a lot of newbies from the Challenge Tour playing their first event with the big boys.
Like Neil, I tend to price up a few of my own fancies before the bookies do and I had Benjamin Herbert priced at around 40/1, hoping to find an early 50/1.
So given he's a best priced 80/1, I've decided to get my first bet on early.
There cannot be many 'hotter' golfers than Benjamin Herbet right now, he's graduated from the Challenge Tour, with 3 wins, a second and a third from his last 8 starts on the Challenge Tour, including a 5 shot victory last month at the Challenge Tours Grand Final in Dubai.
The bookies are not daft and there has to be reason for caution with 80/1 shots, in Herbet's case I guess it's the fact that he also won 3 times on the Challenge Tour in 2011 and then did basically next to nothing on the main tour in 2012 and continued to struggle back on the Challenge Tour in 2013.
But he's still only 27, he's been working with a new coach for the last 18 months, he declares his game is now much better than in 2011/12, he's full of confidence and will surely be able to learn from his past experiences on the main tour.
Benjamin Herbet - ew, 80/1 outright and 55/1 without Schwartzel, Osthuizen and Willett.
Comments
As you guys have pointed out, Lee Westwood has done well in the past and I think its also significant that fellow tee to green specialist, Robert Allenby won here.
Simple logic for me was to check the GIR stats for the tour and go with the highest ranked player.
That turned out to be Danny Willett, I don't think he's played here before but I don't need much of an excuse to back Willett.
I think Martin Kaymer is also worth his place on the shortlist.
However looking at past course form and recent form, I really like Tim Clark at 22/1, in a shortened field 22/1 is just about big enough to go ew in my book.
As for Tiger's tournament, I'm going with Rickie fowler at 12/1.
Its a new venue this year, but it seems that quite a few of the players know the course very well including Tiger himself, I don't think Rickie is one of those that can boast good course knowledge, but I'm going with him as he seems to be playing so well every time he turns up at the moment.
I've also had a dabble in Indonesia, going with David Lipsky at 20/1, after a great first season on the European Tour, he's headed back out to Asia, where he is leading the Asian Tour with 3 events to play.
Singles, Doubles and Treble in place.
Cheers Neil,
Yes I was on Danny Willett, I was on ew at 25/1 pre tournament and 16/1 in running half way through day 1.
I've sang his praises so many times this year, I was kind of embarrassed to post too strongly in favor of him again.
Anyway I'll be remaining firmly in the Danny Willett camp next season, as I'm on him for the Race to Dubai, ew at 66/1 with out Rory and ew at 80/1 against the field.
Just in case you are wandering, I haven't backed DeLaet for the 2014/15 PGA Tour Money List.
I'm waiting to hear that he's been working with putting guru Dave Stockton before I wade into the 150/1
I backed him at 66/1 without Rory on Thursday morning as I felt he could be in for a big week.
I took the 80/1 this morning before the 4th round.
I posted a couple of weeks ago Danny Willett looked to be driving the ball impressively well, in fact the way he played this week I thought it was very similar to the way Rory attacks a course.
I'm not suggesting for a minute he is in the same class as Rory, but the win this week sets him up nicely for next year, confidence and game can move to the next level and it will also ensure he gets into some of the WGC's.
Really looking forward to seeing if Danny Willett can kick on in 2015 now, just hope he doesn't strain his back lifting too many trophy's
My other pick Tim Clark finished the week ranked 2nd for GIR, but struggles on the greens meant he could only manage 7th
Think I might be following the GIR stats again in this event next year.
It should be an interesting 2015, as you say, bring it on!
A follow up win and the ranking points that come with it could be enough for Danny Willett to make the top Worlds Top 50 and lock up a spot in The Masters, so I reckon he will have resisted any major celebrations. Still a big ask to win 2 weeks on the run though.
In addition to the names, you've got the Sunshine Tour regulars to consider and a lot of newbies from the Challenge Tour playing their first event with the big boys.
Like Neil, I tend to price up a few of my own fancies before the bookies do and I had Benjamin Herbert priced at around 40/1, hoping to find an early 50/1.
So given he's a best priced 80/1, I've decided to get my first bet on early.
There cannot be many 'hotter' golfers than Benjamin Herbet right now, he's graduated from the Challenge Tour, with 3 wins, a second and a third from his last 8 starts on the Challenge Tour, including a 5 shot victory last month at the Challenge Tours Grand Final in Dubai.
The bookies are not daft and there has to be reason for caution with 80/1 shots, in Herbet's case I guess it's the fact that he also won 3 times on the Challenge Tour in 2011 and then did basically next to nothing on the main tour in 2012 and continued to struggle back on the Challenge Tour in 2013.
But he's still only 27, he's been working with a new coach for the last 18 months, he declares his game is now much better than in 2011/12, he's full of confidence and will surely be able to learn from his past experiences on the main tour.
Benjamin Herbet - ew, 80/1 outright and 55/1 without Schwartzel, Osthuizen and Willett.