Final major of the year and with so many leading contenders seemingly with a great chance of winning it doesn't get any easier to find the winner, but here goes. Jason Day 16/1, normally I would swerve a player at relatively short odds, but that hasn't always proved to be the wise thing to do. Past course form, superb run in majors which started with a top 10 in this event on this course in 2010. A recent win in Canada and top 12 last week at the WGC, the time is right for Day to win his first major. Zach Johnson 50/1, sometimes you can see scripts that could be written for a great story and sometimes they come true. Zach Johnson could be the star on the next big script, he was 3rd here in 2010, he seems to have held his form sine his win at The Open. I can just see a scenario where 2015 has just two major winners in Spieth and Johnson and it would mean both players would join Rory in 2016, one major away from the career grand slam. Matt Kuchar 60/1, plenty of fuss being made about the identikit fit for the winner of this event, looking for a player with good strong recent form, already a winner in 2015 and a top 20 finish at the WGC last week. None of which I disagree with, but its always nice to have at least one exception to the rule. Kuchar is the man, as they say in the United States of America, he just misses out on all of those keyboxes, but his form isn't that bad, he was 12th in The Open, 4 69's in Canada gave him a tied 7th position and a tied 25th last week was steady. A box he does get a big tick in is, he has won The Players Championship at Sawgrass which is another Pete dye course. Koooch is ranked highly for a lot of the key playing stats , he lead here at the half way stage in 2010 and I like the fact that he is a little under the radar this week. Danny Willett 90/1, not sure if I've still got my Willett blinkers on, but for me he seriously ticks some of the right boxes and his game continues to go from strength to strength. He may not have any course form but that didn't stop Martin Kaymer in 2010. This tournament does find a few 'rags' have a good week, so in that market I'm on..... Bernd Wiesberger 175/1, not doe a great deal wrong since winning the French Open so impressively. Made the cut at The Open but admitted he didn't make a putt all week, tied 31st at The European Master with 3 scores in the 60's and a credible 25th at the WGC have followed. He went out in the final 2 ball at this event last year and again looks to have the game and form to make a mockery of his 3 figure odds. Chris Wood - 300/1, a winner in June this year, he has the game that should suit this course and conditions. Good Luck All Posted by TheDart
Cheers guys and from me a thank you to some of you who post on here (you now who you are), who showed me the light when it comes to studying the form and then dismissing your first pick as he's only '16/1' or similar.
I started this seasons majors, by dismissing a fancy in Jordan Spieth at The Masters as he was 'only' 16/1.
I have definitely begun to revise my thinking when it comes to 'what is value'.
Oh and had an email from Sky regarding my share of a place for Matt Kuchar.
Their customer services team thought it best to send me a link to the dead heat place rule.
Not knocking that at all, I think I knew the rule anyway, but its still nice to have these things clarified in a proactive manner.
Cheers guys and from me a thank you to some of you who post on here (you now who you are), who showed me the light when it comes to studying the form and then dismissing your first pick as he's only '16/1' or similar. I started this seasons majors, by dismissing a fancy in Jordan Spieth at The Masters as he was 'only' 16/1. I have definitely begun to revise my thinking when it comes to 'what is value'. Oh and had an email from Sky regarding my share of a place for Matt Kuchar. Their customer services team thought it best to send me a link to the dead heat place rule. Not knocking that at all, I think I knew the rule anyway, but its still nice to have these things clarified in a proactive manner. Well done Sky. Posted by TheDart
I was thinking the same way with Value for Jason Day but I think a Good strategy now is taking the 16/1 when they are showing great form in their last few tournaments.
J Spieth before the Masters went 2nd 2nd 1st.
J Day went 12th 1st 4th 9th .
Eagerly Knocking on the door .
So next guy Knocking is JUSTIN ROSE going 3rd 4th 3rd 6th ...
Thinking he going to get a win by The Tour Championship in September.
I really think Billy Horschel is about to come good. Not great 1st round in Wyndham but he will in my opinion be right in the mix after close of play today so take the 50/1 - 55/1 you can get in certain places. Would be surprised if not a lot shorter going into Saturday.
Missed out on a place by a shot on Koepka & two shots on Moore. Well done on a third place Darty. Don't think anyone was gettimg the first two there. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Thanks Ice, though I might humbly point out it was two third places with Casey and Schwartzel.
Unlucky with Koepka, a good final day, but left himself with too much to do.
Well I'm going early this week for The Barclays in attempt to maximize the each way value.
Its the first event of the play offs and the head of the market is full of quality and players in form.
It seems Spieth is capable of competing if not winning anywhere and strong cases can be made for all the 'favorites', but I think this event has a bit of 'horses for courses' feel about it, so I'm looking for a little each way value.
Matt Kuchar - 35/1, former winner of this event, along with other good course form. 7th at the PGA so has a nice bit of current form.
Brandt Snedeker - 50/1, shot a 61 around here, shot a 62 last week, consistency seems to be the missing ingredient at the moment, if he can find consistency this week he certainly has the other ingredients to do well.
Graham DeLaet - 175/1, this year I've learnt to control my Graham DeLaet tendencies and its worked out quite well, the last time bringing a place payout at 66/1.
I think its a given now that there are some courses that suits Graham Delaet's game and there are some courses where Delaets lack of a real plan B finds him out.
This is a course that plays to DeLaets strengths, as a tied 5th in 2012 and runner up in 2013 proves. Last year he missed the cut after a dismal opening 78 but came back the next day to shoot 11 shots better to remind us this is his type of course.
Word of caution, hence I guess the 175/1, this is DeLaets first event since pulling out of the Candain Open last month with an injured thumb, though he is reporting that he's fully recovered and ready to go.
Here's hoping the customary play off beard has a few weeks to grow.
Edit: Sigh rushed this a bit on Monday and the history I was checking didn't actually show that the Barclay has flitted around a few courses recently.
The course form for Sneds and Kuch still applies, but for DeLaet his top 5 results came on other courses, not a problem.....if Graham DeLaet plays well, to be fair at 175/1 I'd have been on him anyway, though maybe I've gone from quietly confident to almost silently confident.
Not a great field this week and a very poor market.
Plenty of '50/1' shots prices up at 16 - 25/1, representing no value at all.
At the moment I'm only tempted to back one player.
Thomas Pieters - 80/1, Pieters has really struggled with allergies this year, so much so that since withdrawing at the BMW International at the end of June he only managed to play once in July and just one round in the Paul Lawrie matchplay which saw him go out in the first round losing on the 19th hole.
Last week he managed a full 4 rounds, closing with a 67, so he looks to be back to full health and this is a course where driving accuracy doesn't appear to be a necessity, which will suit Pieters grip it and rip it style.
Its the Russian Open next week and Pieters was 6th last year, so I was going to keep my powder dry on Pieters until next week, but on further inspection I realized the Russian Open is being played on a different course this year and after just a little more research, I discovered Pieters has not actually entered this years Russian Open, so no point waiting any longer.
Czech Masters Not a great field this week and a very poor market. Plenty of '50/1' shots prices up at 16 - 25/1, representing no value at all. At the moment I'm only tempted to back one player. Thomas Pieters - 80/1, Pieters has really struggled with allergies this year, so mych so that since withdrawing at the BMW International at the end of June he only managed to play one in July and just one round in the Paul Lawrie matchplay which saw him go out in the first round losing on the 19th hole. Last week he managed a full 4 rounds, closing with a 67, so he looks to be back to full health and this is a course where driving accuracy doesn't appear to be a necessity, which will suit Pieters grip it and rip style. Its the Russian Open next week and Pieters with 6th last year, so I was going to keep my powder dry on Pieters until next week, but on further inspection I realized the Russian Open is being played on a different course this year and after just a little more research, I discovered Pieters has actually entered this years Russian Open, so no point waiting any longer. Posted by TheDart
Think we have to go for the winner here. My choices are Eddie Pepperill at 20/1 & Bradley Dredge at 28/1.
Like all your bets this week so have copied those & got the prices. Thanks in advance.
Have added Rikard Karlberg at 30/1 in a weak field for the Czech Masters. He has the good length & GIR required here & was in contention last week before finishing 14th.
Well Mr. Ice, between us we have a strong hand going into the weekend at the Czech Masters.
Not so at The Barclays, faint hope of Kooooch putting together a low round to get into contention, but a bogey on the second and currently tied 67th is not looking good.
Well Mr. Ice, between us we have a strong hand going into the weekend at the Czech Masters. Not so at The Barclays, faint hope of Kooooch putting together a low round to get into contention, but a bogey on the second and currently tied 67th is not looking good. I've add Jason Dufner ew first 4 at 33/1 Good Luck Posted by TheDart
Is it wrong to get excitied with four players in the top twelve with an 80/1 player one shot off the lead? Shame I deserted Fitzpatrick this week or it could have been five in the top twelve. Particularly impressed with Pepperill yesterday but needs two more low rounds.
Comments
I started this seasons majors, by dismissing a fancy in Jordan Spieth at The Masters as he was 'only' 16/1.
I have definitely begun to revise my thinking when it comes to 'what is value'.
Oh and had an email from Sky regarding my share of a place for Matt Kuchar.
Their customer services team thought it best to send me a link to the dead heat place rule.
Not knocking that at all, I think I knew the rule anyway, but its still nice to have these things clarified in a proactive manner.
Well done Sky.
Brooks Koepka 16/1 (Coral)
Ryan Moore 40/1 (Coral)
Harris English 70/1 (BetFred)
Russell Knox 80/1 (Hills)
Made In Denmark
Marc Warren 10/1 (General)
Matthew Fitzpatrick 20/1 (Coral)
Oliver Fisher 125/1 (General)
Not betting too much this week as the week after a major often throws up shock winners.
Unlucky with Koepka, a good final day, but left himself with too much to do.
Well I'm going early this week for The Barclays in attempt to maximize the each way value.
Its the first event of the play offs and the head of the market is full of quality and players in form.
It seems Spieth is capable of competing if not winning anywhere and strong cases can be made for all the 'favorites', but I think this event has a bit of 'horses for courses' feel about it, so I'm looking for a little each way value.
Matt Kuchar - 35/1, former winner of this event, along with other good course form. 7th at the PGA so has a nice bit of current form.
Brandt Snedeker - 50/1, shot a 61 around here, shot a 62 last week, consistency seems to be the missing ingredient at the moment, if he can find consistency this week he certainly has the other ingredients to do well.
Graham DeLaet - 175/1, this year I've learnt to control my Graham DeLaet tendencies and its worked out quite well, the last time bringing a place payout at 66/1.
I think its a given now that there are some courses that suits Graham Delaet's game and there are some courses where Delaets lack of a real plan B finds him out.
This is a course that plays to DeLaets strengths, as a tied 5th in 2012 and runner up in 2013 proves. Last year he missed the cut after a dismal opening 78 but came back the next day to shoot 11 shots better to remind us this is his type of course.
Word of caution, hence I guess the 175/1, this is DeLaets first event since pulling out of the Candain Open last month with an injured thumb, though he is reporting that he's fully recovered and ready to go.
Here's hoping the customary play off beard has a few weeks to grow.
Edit: Sigh rushed this a bit on Monday and the history I was checking didn't actually show that the Barclay has flitted around a few courses recently.
The course form for Sneds and Kuch still applies, but for DeLaet his top 5 results came on other courses, not a problem.....if Graham DeLaet plays well, to be fair at 175/1 I'd have been on him anyway, though maybe I've gone from quietly confident to almost silently confident.
Not a great field this week and a very poor market.
Plenty of '50/1' shots prices up at 16 - 25/1, representing no value at all.
At the moment I'm only tempted to back one player.
Thomas Pieters - 80/1, Pieters has really struggled with allergies this year, so much so that since withdrawing at the BMW International at the end of June he only managed to play once in July and just one round in the Paul Lawrie matchplay which saw him go out in the first round losing on the 19th hole.
Last week he managed a full 4 rounds, closing with a 67, so he looks to be back to full health and this is a course where driving accuracy doesn't appear to be a necessity, which will suit Pieters grip it and rip it style.
Its the Russian Open next week and Pieters was 6th last year, so I was going to keep my powder dry on Pieters until next week, but on further inspection I realized the Russian Open is being played on a different course this year and after just a little more research, I discovered Pieters has not actually entered this years Russian Open, so no point waiting any longer.
I gave in and added
James Morrison - 20/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 25/1
Not so at The Barclays, faint hope of Kooooch putting together a low round to get into contention, but a bogey on the second and currently tied 67th is not looking good.
I've add Jason Dufner ew first 4 at 33/1
Good Luck