This is a competition between the USA & the International Team (basically the Rest of the World after Europe & USA is taken out). USA dominate this event so are strong odds on favourites but they are vulnerable this year. Firstly the event is being held in Korea which favours the Internationals. Secondly the USA team isn't as strong as it has been in the past. Thirdly, the International team has more high ranking players than ever with Jason Day, Grace, Oosterhuizen, Scott, Matsuyama & Danny Lee, who finished second to Speith last week.
Based upon that an the fact one or two of the Americans might just be off the boil, I think the 2/1 available for the Internationals is good value.
Looking for top points scorers is a bit of a pin sticking exercise but I think the two stand out bets in the USA team are Kucher at 11/1 & Reed at 10/1. I feel we have to swerve Speith & Fowler, which gives a bit of value elsewhere.
The International team is a harder pick as everyone is likely to be going full throttle here. My problem is looking beyond Day, who is a strong favourite. If I do then I like Lee at 12/1 & Jaidee at 16/1.
Well the lack of recent tournament play around Woburn makes this a bit of a shot in the dark this week.
The Seniors did play here last month and the event was won by Colin Montgomerie, which might not give too many pointers as his strike rate on the seniors tour is pretty high.
Though you'd have Monty as a tee to green guy, the same can be said of 2002 winner at Woburn, Justin rose, great game tee to green, but not one to trust on the greens.
So tree lined course, not overly long, seems to suit ball strikers with accuracy as opposed to bombers.
EDIT: Just read a tweet from Chris Wood saying Woburn playing ridiculously wrong, so maybe the weather has played into the hands of the bombers.
That said, I don't think my guys are particularly short so hopefully no harm done.
Like last week I think the value for the leading players is none existent.
Lowry, Willett, Donaldson look to have strong chances and it wouldn't be a surprise if Gmac, Molinari, Poulter, An, Kjeldesen, Donald, Fitzpatrick or Wood won, but priced up between 16/1 and 33/1 which do you pick and if you back more than one, can you really do so with too much confidence,
So this week I've taken the alternative route, a few tee to green 'specialists' available at healthy prices.
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, I was gearing up for a decent bet on Tommy Fleetwood at last weeks Dunhill Links, but after some decidedly dodgy form leading into the event I deserted him.
He finished a never nearer 13th in the end, but that could have been so different if he'd played the last 5 holes of his first round at St. Andrews in Level par instead of 5 over which included an ugly 8 on the pa5 14th.
Its all ifs and buts but if Fleetwood had played those 5 holes in an ordinary level par, he'd have finished the week tied for the lead on 18 under.
This will be the 5th week straight that he has teed it up but two missed cuts from the last 4 events, mean he hasn't played too hard or under any real pressure, last week suggested the game was now coming around and for a player coming into form and who's strength is normally tee to green, conditions and circumstance could well suit Tommy Fleetwood this week.
Peter Hanson - 66/1, at his best he is seriously good. Hanson has been struggling with injuries for a while now, but after failing to make a cut since the Open de France at the beginning of July, Hanson does seem to be getting back to form and fitness with a tied 13th last week and a tied 19th the previous week.
He does have form on tree lined courses and this course could well suit a resurgent Peter Hanson.
Thomas Aiken - 70/1, another guy who's strength is tee to green. He's only flew back from America at the beginning of the week after trying his luck in the Web.com tour qualifiers, trying to win a card for next years PGA Tour.
It looked like Aiken was going to miss out on, with one round to play he was ranked 95th, when only the top 25 players would win a PGA Tour card, but a final round 65 saw him come through the field and jump up to 23rd on the final placing's of the Web.com Rankings and win the right to play on the PGA Tour next year.
So no back in Europe and hoping to secure a top 60 on the R2D, Thomas Aiken must be feeling pretty proud of himself and enjoying life.
Full of confidence and a game to suit the course, he may well keep the fell good factor going.
Well this is strange... Does anyone remember me? ;-)
Bored at work so had a quick look at the golf scores and fancied a bet. Saw Bjerregarrd (Not somebody I usually rate) -3 through 8. Looked at his recent results and he's had 2 top 10's in his last 3 starts. the other was the links, so that can be excused as that's totally different. He was still 66/1 with Sky, so I've got £5 e/w
Also going to keep an eye on how an old favourite Eddie Pepp starts. Not much logic to it apart from a gut feeling.
British Masters Struggling to track much recent course form for Woburn so am going to go with current form. I do think the course favours long accurate hitters that can hit GIR. Shane Lowry 20/1 Looked to be in form last weekend & should go very close. Danny Willett 20/1 Think he is ready to take one down & this couse looks right for him. Thomas Pieters 66/1 The course didn't suit last week but it should be better this week. Hopefully back to his best. Paul Dunne 80/1 He looked good last week and epect a decent showing again this week at a decent price. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Lowry went close, tying 2nd without really getting into top gear. It was one of those events where no-one seemed to want to win it.
The 2015/16 PGA Tour starts this week with the Fry.Com Open. This is played at the Silverado Country Club in California. This is a course that seems to favour the longer drivers and a winning score is usually in the range of -15 to -18. The par threes are tough and need parring while the shots need to be picked up on the par fives. Birdie every Par Five & par the rest & you will go very close.
There is quite a strong field with the betting headed by Rory McIlroy & Justin Rose. McIlroy doesn't appeal at 5/1 but maybe the fact that he swerved the British Masters & is prepared to travel half way round the world for this one is a clue as to how seriously he is taking it.
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
Here is a consistent player who seems to excel in California. In six tournaments there, he has finished in the top four three times and has finished third twice in this event in 2013 & 2014. A player who likes the course & could step up to the top of the podium this week.
Tony Finau 40/1
I think that 40/1 is a great price and that this course is ideal for Finau. He had the best record on Par Fives on the tour last season so this course should suit him. He finished tied 12th last year.
Jonas Blixt 150/1
Blixt finished last season well and won this event in 2012. A bit of a punt but good value at 150/1
Derek Fathauer 200/1
Two Top Ten finishes in the last couple of months plus tied 12th in this event last year make him a lively outsider.
An average strength field here with players that need points all playing. Kaymer & Weisburger lead the market here but I have looked for players to beat them at a decent price. It think it is probably going to take better than -20 to win here if the weather stays fine.
Alexander Levy 30/1
Levy won this event last year, remarkably at -18 when the event was halted after 36 holes. I like a course speciallist although Levy is a bit of a hot or cold player & what is needed here is a hot player.
Eddie Pepperill 40/1
Like Pepperill and he is going to be a top player. Finished well last week and think Fitzpatrick's win may have helped his mind set for this event
NicolasColsaerts 60/1
Was second behind Levy a year ago. Feel he could just be ready for a win on a course that clearly he likes.
Gary Stal 125/1
A decent player who has slipped down the betting recently. Won in Abu Dhabi early this year & finished 4th in Dubai & 9th in French. Hit two rounds in the 60s here last year so value at the price.
Pelle Edberg 125/1
A bit of a punt but his name keeps appearing so I looked up his most recent results and he appears to be remarkably inconsistent. 85-124-3-127-113-2-81-33-4 are his most recent finishes. So amidst the rubbish are three top four finishes at the European Open, Czech Masters & European Masters. Worth a gamble at the price.
The longest continuous running tournament currently on the European Tour takes place this week. There is a mixed field of European Tour regulars, Asian Tour players plus a few from the PGA Tour, most noticeably Justin Rose & Dustin Johnson.
A flick through previous results on this course and one name keeps cropping up time & again and it would be foolish to ignore it.
Miguel Angel Jiminez 28/1
MAJ has won this event four times in the last ten years including twice in the last three years so he is definately the course specialist. Whilst his current form is mixed, it is impossible to ignore course stats like this so he has to be part of our portfolio.
Matthew Fitzpatrick 16/1
Not brilliant odds but Fitz has been brilliantly consistent this season and his first tour win at Woburn could kick him forward to a higher level. Thomas Pieters followed his first tour win with a second next time out & Fitz could do the same.
Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1
Lucas has trundled along all season doing nothing spectacular but has had three top ten finishes in his last five events at the Italian Open (3rd), European Open (5th) & Portugal Masters (9th). He also has course form, finishing 5th here last year
Angelo Que 125/1
Not an obvious pick on the face of it but amidst a sea of mediocre results for the last two years, two stand out - 5th in this event two years ago and runner up last year, losing in a playoff. Could be a case of horses for courses.
This event is is Las Vegas and our main two bets are two local players.
Ryan Moore 28/1
Moore has three top ten finishes here in the last six years including a win three years ago. He finshed with rounds of 67 & 68 last weekend to show he is in good nick and he has the putting game to win here on his home course.
Charley Hoffman 40/1
Hoffman has three top ten finishes here over the last ten years and he also has the putting game to put him in contention.
Kevin Streelman 80/1
Streelman was runner up here a year ago and although he hasn't won for a couple of years, he might be about right to get back on track on a favoured course.
USB Hong Kong Open The longest continuous running tournament currently on the European Tour takes place this week. There is a mixed field of European Tour regulars, Asian Tour players plus a few from the PGA Tour, most noticeably Justin Rose & Dustin Johnson. A flick through previous results on this course and one name keeps cropping up time & again and it would be foolish to ignore it. Miguel Angel Jiminez 28/1 MAJ has won this event four times in the last ten years including twice in the last three years so he is definately the course specialist. Whilst his current form is mixed, it is impossible to ignore course stats like this so he has to be part of our portfolio. Matthew Fitzpatrick 16/1 Not brilliant odds but Fitz has been brilliantly consistent this season and his first tour win at Woburn could kick him forward to a higher level. Thomas Pieters followed his first tour win with a second next time out & Fitz could do the same. Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1 Lucas has trundled along all season doing nothing spectacular but has had three top ten finishes in his last five events at the Italian Open (3rd), European Open (5th) & Portugal Masters (9th). He also has course form, finishing 5th here last year Angelo Que 125/1 Not an obvious pick on the face of it but amidst a sea of mediocre results for the last two years, two stand out - 5th in this event two years ago and runner up last year, losing in a playoff. Could be a case of horses for courses. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
That went pretty well with second at 50/1 & third at 16/1 although cannot help thinking that Bjerregaard should have won this - a double bogey four out allowed Rose to win by a shot.
From one of the oldest tournaments on the tour at Hong Kong last week to one of the newer ones in Turkey this week. This event has only been run twice so patterns are still emerging. In 2013, the winner was Victor Dubuisson and in 2014, it was Brooks Koepka. Both are struggling at the moment so they don't make my short list.
There is a decent field with the betting led by McIlroy, Lowry & Weisberger. This is a tree lined course and the results from the last two years suggest that we want players who can hit GIR and good putting is a plus as well.
Matthew Fitzpatrick 22/1
Four top three finishes in his last six starts including a win at Woburn mean that it would be foolhardy to abandon Fitz now, particularly as this course is so similar to Woburn.
Andy Sullivan 25/1
Sullivan finished 4th here a year ago so likes the course and won his last event, the Portugese Masters, two weeks ago. Have to have him on side.
Ian Poulter 25/1
Poulter has finished 2nd & 5th here in the last two years and while his current form is a bit sketchy, he does tend to save his best form for the closing months of the year.
Thomas Pieters 35/1
Feel that I cannot give him a miss yet. He has been our most profitable player of 2015 so let's go to the well one more time.
Fabrizio Zanotti 50/1
This player has caught my eye in recent weeks with three Top Four finishes from his last five starts. He is great value at 50/1 & worthy of inclusion.
Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1
Everything about this player says he should go close. He loves this sort of course & is bang in form. The only downside is his inability to win. He should have won last week in Hong Kong but he gifted it to Justin Rose. Four Top Tens in his last six and three in the Top Five. Should be there abouts.
CIMB Classic Henrik Stenson is the favourite here at 7/1 & while I cannot go with him, I do fancy quite a few of the players 20/1 and under. Kevin Na 14/1 He is the form player at the moment and finished second here last year. Has to be included. Hideki Matsuyama 16/1 Course suits accuracy so should go close Ryan Moore 20/1 Has won this event for the last two years although he let us down last week. David Lingmerth 110/1 Another player who I feel should be suited by the course and at this price, why not. Grace, Reed, Lahari & Lee could also go close. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Na finished 3rd & Matsuyama 5th for two places (Moore - 10th & Lingmerth 14th) so a good week but cannot help but be disappointed to not get a winner with four players in contention.
This tournament features one of the weakest fields that we are likely to see Stateside so picking a winner could be pretty tricky. It is being played for the second time at the Jackson Country Club, Mississippi so we have limited course form to go on.
In my mind, I was favouring Jason Bohn here & looking for a price of 25/1 - 33/1 but the bookies have priced him as the 12/1 favourite so I cannot see any value. This is a great opportunity for a rookie to claim their first win while the journeymen players will see this as a chance to claim that once per season win.
The limited evidence suggests that this tournnament will be won by whoever scores best on the par 5s. The other key factors are likely to be GIR & Putting.
I expected Patrick Rodgers to be the favourite here but he is rated second at 14/1. I think that is a fair price but I think we have to go for something bigger priced in a very open event.
Kevin Streelman 33/1
We had Streelman two weeks ago in his last tournament at the Shriners and he gave us a decent run and a Top Twenty finish. This is a much weaker field and with the vast majority looking for their maiden win, we at least know Streelman can get over the line on a Sunday and at 33/1, we get a fair price on a player that is unreliable but can win when he is hot.
Graham DeLaet 40/1
Talking of unreliable, I have chosen to go with DeLaet. On his day, he can beat everyone here and at 40/1, we are getting decent value. It is a bit of a "stick a pin in it" sort of event but at least we know De Laet is one of the better players.
Dawie van der Walt 125/1
Obviously at this price he is a bit of a punt but there will probably be three players at 100/1+ placed here. I like his form on the Web.com tour last season and his 3rd place for GIR and 6th for Par 5 scoring are perfect for this course so he could be a lively outsider.
Paddy Power are offering 1/5 for 7 places so great value there particularly as this is an event which could throw up a long priced winner and most likely will give some big priced places. Certainly an event worth watching because we get to see a lot of the rookies in action and maybe we spot the next Justin Thomas.
Others that might be worth considering are: William McGirt, Smylie Kaufman & Jhonattan Vegas.
Most of the top players in the world are here (Jason Day is the notable exception) with both Fed Ex points and Race to Dubai points on offer. Rory McIlroy & Jordan Speith dominate the market which means that there is plenty of value to be had in opposing these two this week. They have contrasting form here. McIlroy has four consecutive top ten finishes but I couldn't back him at 6/1 after watching him last week while Speith hasn't been in contention in two attempts here.
The event is being played on the Sheshan International Course which has been used for this event for several years. A look at the most recent winners (Bubba Watson & Dustin Johnson) shows that big hitters tend to do well here. It has traditionally taken a score of better than -20 to win but they toughened up the course last year and Bubba won with -11. I expect a similar winning score this year.
Quality players tend to come through here with the five of the last six winners here being previous major winners.
Martin Kaymer 40/1
Kaymer won here four years ago and has finished top ten in the last two years. Hasn't played for a month so form is unknown but has twice won after having a month off so happy to go with him at this price.
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Oost has six consecutive Top 20 finishes on this course so I expect his to be in contention. Second place in two majors suggest that he should be a lot shorter than this price.
Justin Thomas 30/1
Has driving distance on a par with the best so this course should suit him far better than Kuala Lumpur last week, where he was the best player by a distance. The opposition will be tougher this week but Thomas could be a multiple winner this season.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66/1
Cannot help but be impressed by this guys game. Not the prettiest swing on tour but he always seems to be in contention. He has a couple of wins this season in the Shenzhen International and the Saltaire Energy Paul Lawrie Match Play but it is his last three performances that command respect - 4th in the Alfred Dunhill, Tied 5th in the British Masters & Third in the Turkish Airlines Open last week. This course is similar to the one in Turkey so despite the higher class field, I have big hopes.
Thorbjorn Olesen 125/1
A bit of a punt but he won the Alfred Dunhill last month, finished 5th in the Czech Masters and 2nd in the Mauritius Open. Add in that he finished 6th here last year, he could be good value at this price.
This event is being played at the Lake Malaren Golf Club in China for the fourth consecutive year. It hs a reasonably strong field & I can argue a good case for about a dozen players. It is a Jack Nicklaus designed course and favours driving distance & GIR.
Justin Rose 6/1
Justin is a deserved favourite here and it is hard to pick half a dozen players and leave him out. He won in Hong Kong two weeks ago and has seven Top Six finishes in his last ten events. This course looks ideal as he has topped the GIR stats in two of his last three events and has finished 12th & 4th in his two previous starts here.
Branden Grace 18/1
Fifth last week and should go close on a course that should suit his game.
Danny Willett 25/1
Finished Tied 3rd last week and close second behind McIlroy in the Race to Dubai. His GIR figures last week were excellent and the sense of injustice that he is not already leading the R2D should motivate him here.
Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1
Five Top Ten finishes from his last eight starts. Four rounds in the 60s last week. Another who has great GIR figures.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 50/1
He let us down last week but I am happy to go again as that was the first time he has failed to make the Top Six in five starts.
Hao Tong Li 100/1
Caught the eye with a 7th placed finish last week, the 20 year old is playing on his home course this week. In three European Tour events on Chinese soil, he hasn't failed to finish in the top seven so at 100/1 get in early as he is great value.
Others that I think could contend are Casey, Wiesberger, Grillo, An, Jaidee & Levy.
The PGA Tour moves to the El Camaleon course at Playa Del Carmen, Maxico.
Harris English 28/1
Was the winner here two years ago by a convincing four shots. Should be very close.
Charley Hoffman 40/1
I like going for course specialsts and none better than last year's winner. He has also had four top three finishes this year and is ideally suited by this course.
Jhonattan Vegas 50/1
The Venezualan has started the season looking good with two top ten finishes in three events. He was particularly impressive finishing 4th last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He has been knocking at the door with great consistency. Could be his week.
Shawn Stefani 125/1
Stefani has an unspectacular record but does seem to come alive on this course and at this time of year, finishing second last year. A long shot but decent value.
Dawie Van Der Walt 200/1
Think he could make a break through on the PGA tour. He has excelled in smaller events, winning the Price Cutter Championship & the Chile Open this year. Finished 33rd last week and should go closer this week. Great value at 200/1.
A poor week last week so looking to bounce back as the Race To Dubai reaches its conclusion this week.
DP World Tour Championship, Dubai
This is a tricky betting event because we have three players at single figures prices, who all have outstanding chances. Alternatively, look for outsiders who might put in a great show. McIlroy is best priced 5/1 with Stenson 13/2 & Rose 8/1. Probably have to pick one of these three then go with some lively outsiders.
This is wide open Greg Norman designed course which favours big hitters. All six winners of this event on this course have been in the top ten for driving distance. It also appears to favour putting accuracy with five of the six winners being in the top ten here as well.
Henrik Stenson 13/2
Not one of my favourite players but appears to have a better case in his favour than McIlroy & Rose. He has won this event in 2013 & 2014. He arrives here as he did a year ago seeking his first win of the season & he appears to be running into form with three seconds and a third in his last seven tournaments. The price appears skinny but the stars are all aligning for a win this weekend.
Victor Dubuisson 25/1
He is ideally suited to this course & has shown his credentials finishing third here in 2013 & tied second last year. He is back to his best with a win in Turkey last month so at this price is good value.
Thomas Pieters 66/1
Pieters has won twice for us this season at similar prices and I cannot resist at 66/1. He hasn't played here before but he is a massive hitter and a decent putter so meets the profile to win.
Kristoffer Broberg 80/1
Got his debut win last week and we have seen a number of players follow up debut wins in their next performance. No great course track record but a value for money price.
Comments
Well the lack of recent tournament play around Woburn makes this a bit of a shot in the dark this week.
The Seniors did play here last month and the event was won by Colin Montgomerie, which might not give too many pointers as his strike rate on the seniors tour is pretty high.
Though you'd have Monty as a tee to green guy, the same can be said of 2002 winner at Woburn, Justin rose, great game tee to green, but not one to trust on the greens.
So tree lined course, not overly long, seems to suit ball strikers with accuracy as opposed to bombers.
EDIT: Just read a tweet from Chris Wood saying Woburn playing ridiculously wrong, so maybe the weather has played into the hands of the bombers.
That said, I don't think my guys are particularly short so hopefully no harm done.
Like last week I think the value for the leading players is none existent.
Lowry, Willett, Donaldson look to have strong chances and it wouldn't be a surprise if Gmac, Molinari, Poulter, An, Kjeldesen, Donald, Fitzpatrick or Wood won, but priced up between 16/1 and 33/1 which do you pick and if you back more than one, can you really do so with too much confidence,
So this week I've taken the alternative route, a few tee to green 'specialists' available at healthy prices.
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, I was gearing up for a decent bet on Tommy Fleetwood at last weeks Dunhill Links, but after some decidedly dodgy form leading into the event I deserted him.
He finished a never nearer 13th in the end, but that could have been so different if he'd played the last 5 holes of his first round at St. Andrews in Level par instead of 5 over which included an ugly 8 on the pa5 14th.
Its all ifs and buts but if Fleetwood had played those 5 holes in an ordinary level par, he'd have finished the week tied for the lead on 18 under.
This will be the 5th week straight that he has teed it up but two missed cuts from the last 4 events, mean he hasn't played too hard or under any real pressure, last week suggested the game was now coming around and for a player coming into form and who's strength is normally tee to green, conditions and circumstance could well suit Tommy Fleetwood this week.
Peter Hanson - 66/1, at his best he is seriously good. Hanson has been struggling with injuries for a while now, but after failing to make a cut since the Open de France at the beginning of July, Hanson does seem to be getting back to form and fitness with a tied 13th last week and a tied 19th the previous week.
He does have form on tree lined courses and this course could well suit a resurgent Peter Hanson.
Thomas Aiken - 70/1, another guy who's strength is tee to green. He's only flew back from America at the beginning of the week after trying his luck in the Web.com tour qualifiers, trying to win a card for next years PGA Tour.
It looked like Aiken was going to miss out on, with one round to play he was ranked 95th, when only the top 25 players would win a PGA Tour card, but a final round 65 saw him come through the field and jump up to 23rd on the final placing's of the Web.com Rankings and win the right to play on the PGA Tour next year.
So no back in Europe and hoping to secure a top 60 on the R2D, Thomas Aiken must be feeling pretty proud of himself and enjoying life.
Full of confidence and a game to suit the course, he may well keep the fell good factor going.
Good Luck All
Canizares, Bourdy and Fitzpatrick to win their 3 ball.
Returns £51
Be lucky
Good Luck!
A decent player who has slipped down the betting recently. Won in Abu Dhabi early this year & finished 4th in Dubai & 9th in French. Hit two rounds in the 60s here last year so value at the price.