Pieters aside my 4 remaining picks are all 10 shots off the lead and more than likely missing the cut, drastic measures have been taken.
Estanisiao Goya - 50/1, half decent course form, good record in the wind including a win, a sudden return to form last week with a second place finish, good start yesterday.
Andy Sullivan - 22/1, seven shots of the lead but quality player, enough said.
KLM Open - Kennemer Golf & Country Club A stronger field than in recent weeks with Martin Kaymer as a 10/1 favourite. I am looking to take him on with four reasonably priced players. Joost Luiten 20/1 (General) The local favourite and has finished first and fifth since the event moved to this course. Got a 4th place at the Scottish in July but on his favourite course, he should go close. David Horsey 50/1 (Bet365) Another player who comes alive in this event with three top ten finishes in the last six years. Bang in form as well with a 3rd last week in the Russian Open and winning in Denmark two weeks before that. Miguel Angel Jininez 50/1 (General) There is a name that I didn't think I would be including in this thread. MAJ picks his tournaments now as he flirts with the Seniors Tour but this is one of his favourites. He has three top ten finishes in his last five attempts including a 2nd two years ago. Three Top Six finishes on the European Tour this season shows he can still mix it with the best so 50/1 is value in my eyes. Thomas Pieters 75/1 (Bet365) It is hard to know how a player will react to his first win but at 75/1, I am prepared to go again with Pieters after his impressive win in the Czech Masters ten days ago. He might miss the cut but he might also blow the field away with his new found confidence. A few others that came into my thinking were Andy Sullivan 33/1, Eddie Pepperill 33/1, Tyrell Hatton 28/1, Gregory Havret 80/1, Johan Carlsson 150/1 & Oliver Fisher 200/1. Hope none of them go close. Posted by Ice_Tiger
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Deutsche Bank + Russian Open) : SHHAKALAKABOOMBOOM!!!! It's Thomas Pieters Day again!!!!!! Guess we won't be getting 75/1 again. Posted by Ice_Tiger
I liked Thomas Pieters a lot, I like him even more now :-)
The best price of 75/1 lured me in for the second win as much as anything , I'm sure the bookies will not be so generous next time out.
Going to be busy with work for the next couple of days so had to get in early this week.
BMW Championship
Another play off event that switches courses, with 2013 being the one time they previously played here.
Not too far from Whistling straits, the course is said to been designed as links style course and looking at 2013, you can see a number of links and wind players faired well.
Zach Johnson - 28/1, if you skip by the obvious chances of Day, Stenson, Rory, Spieth, Fowler etc, the most obvious value bet has to be Zach Johnson. He won the event on this course in 2013, he's the reigning Open champion.
Louis Oosthuizen - 50/1, Louis was absent in 2013 but I'd imagine this course and conditions would be perfect for him.
Paul Casey - 66/1, Having a great season and as with Louis you would imagine this course and conditions will be ideal for Paul Casey.
Russell Knox - 100/1, in 2013 it was noticeable that ball strikers as opposed to grip it and rip it players did particularly well, Furyk shot a 59 and Kuchar a 61, both should do well again, but at 2-3 times the price I think Knox is worth a shot. He's another player who has had a very good season and is still improving.
No course form to go on and this early inn the week, I've not come across any useful inside info, which means I've had to try and work out the right time of profile myself.
I've decided that we are looking for good ball strikers, with accuracy tee to green and also ruled out players that are not blessed with great length of the tee.
Danny Willett springs to mind but then again with my R2D investment he springs to mind every week. First week back and priced at just 14/1, I cant back him this week but wont be too miffed if he should win.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 25/1, unusually inconsistent week in Holland for Fitz, he threw in a 60 with 3 very mixed bags.
With young players it doesn't take much to fix what ever is broke, so I fully expect him to be hitting plenty of fairways and greens in regulation this week. Close to that first win and a new course for everyone is a great leveler for Fitzpatrick.
Tommy Fleetwood - 50/1, his first round back last week was full of rust, cobwebs and cow dung. His second round was much better but he missed the cut by one.
I'm trusting he didn't waste his weekend off, as at his best in this field he has a decent chance and 50/1 represents very good value.
Alexander Levy - 50/1, sometimes I get suckered in by the price, Levy at 50/1 is such an occasion. He's well rested which can work either way, at 50/1 I think he's worth a speculative each way tipple.
Kristoffer Broberg - 66/1, time to have another go with Mr. Broberg. I think he's continued to play well and he would fall into the category of not being far a way from a really big week. If ball striking and accuracy tee to green is at a premium this week, he won't let you down.
The price might be a little skinny as he hasn't been active recently but for me he is the class act in the field. If he gets a decent start, he will go very close.
Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1 (Betfred)
Continuing my bias towards players from Sheffield, I have to side with Fitzpatrick. His 60 last week showed what he is capable of and he will put four top rounds together soon. He has had a top three finish in each of the last three months. Like with Pieters, I want to be with him when it happens.
Eddie Pepperell 28/1 (Paddy Power)
Another bright young thing that has been knocking on the door for months. 2nd at Dubai in May, 4th at Scottish Open in July then 5th last week at the Dutch. If he can keep his mind on the golf then this could be his week.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 33/1 (Bet Victor)
Quite a few times I have found my players up against RCB in the final stages this season and while he has a tendancy to falter on a Sunday when well placed, I cannot help but think this guy is going to win soon.
Robert Dinwiddie 100/1 (General)
I backed Dinwiddie at the Czech Masters where he finished 4th after a poor final round. He is starting to be more consistent. His last 20 rounds are 70-68-71-63-70-70-67-69-69-67-68-70-73-69-68-69-67-70-70-62. His final round 62 last Sunday may have gone under the bookies radar but gave him a fifth consecutive top thirty finish.
Tommy Fleetwood is appealing at 50/1 but he has let me down too often & I want to see more before I go with him again.
This is tricky with the top five in the betting (Day, McIlroy, Speith, Stenson & Fowler) accounting for almost 50% of the market. It is pretty much a question of picking one of these five or picking a string of outsiders to take them on. I am going to take them on.
Zach Johnson 25/1 (General)
He has to be the favourite without the big five. He won here two years ago & the course is ideally suited to his game.
Louis Oosterhuizen 50/1 (General)
He hasn't showed his best form recently but this should be the perfect couse for him and at 50/1, he is great value. He also needs the FedEx points to progress.
David Lingmerth 150/1 (Coral)
This is a bit of a punt but he appeared on my radar when he cost me money by beating Justin Rose in a playoff at the Memorial back in July. I looked up his form and he had four missed cuts in his previous five outings. The following week he was 64th but then he stormed back with a 6th at the Greenbrier Classic. He followed that with a 74th but came back with a 3rd at the Quicken Loans and a 6th at the Bridgestone. Get the picture - he is inconsistent! Since his 12th at the PGA last month, he has missed the cut twice so maybe. just maybe.........
I would also add that Jim Furyk is a bit of a course specialist here & holds the course record of 59 but this is reflected in his price and don't see much value at 20/1.
Italian Open Danny Willett 14/1 (General) The price might be a little skinny as he hasn't been active recently but for me he is the class act in the field. If he gets a decent start, he will go very close. Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1 (Betfred) Continuing my bias towards players from Sheffield, I have to side with Fitzpatrick. His 60 last week showed what he is capable of and he will put four top rounds together soon. He has had a top three finish in each of the last three months. Like with Pieters, I want to be with him when it happens. Eddie Pepperell 28/1 (Paddy Power) Another bright young thing that has been knocking on the door for months. 2nd at Dubai in May, 4th at Scottish Open in July then 5th last week at the Dutch. If he can keep his mind on the golf then this could be his week. Rafael Cabrera Bello 33/1 (Bet Victor) Quite a few times I have found my players up against RCB in the final stages this season and while he has a tendancy to falter on a Sunday when well placed, I cannot help but think this guy is going to win soon. Robert Dinwiddie 100/1 (General) I backed Dinwiddie at the Czech Masters where he finished 4th after a poor final round. He is starting to be more consistent. His last 20 rounds are 70-68-71-63-70-70-67-69-69-67-68-70-73-69-68-69-67-70-70-62. His final round 62 last Sunday may have gone under the bookies radar but gave him a fifth consecutive top thirty finish. Tommy Fleetwood is appealing at 50/1 but he has let me down too often & I want to see more before I go with him again. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Willett & Fitzpatrick each finished Tied 3rd, one shot behind the winner so not too bad a weekend.
It's another challenging week on the European Tour, with as far as I can see, the only recent course form to be found for an event on the 2013 Challenge Tour.
Byeong Hun An - 28/1, after a quiet summer he won in Korea last week, An played in the 2013 Challenge Tour event here and finished a not too shabby tied 12th.
David Lipsky - 66/1, playing very well at the moment, one shot off the play off last week, he may not be a 'houshold' name but he was a winner on tour last year and also won the Asian Order of Merit which is no mean feat.
Jaco Van Zyl - 66/1, last week was his first tournament back for two months and he finished a credible tied 14th, this included a round of 65 and 66. He already has three top 3 finishes on tour this year including at the Open de France.
Lucas Bjerregaard - 150/1, ticks the same box as An with a tied 12th here in 2013 and ticks the same box as Lipsky in finishing one shot off the play off last week. Those boxes are the right boxes to tick so at 150/1 Lucas B looks good value this week.
Graeme Storm - 225/1, he's struggling at 127th in the R2D so needs a big week to get inside the top 110 and secure his card for next year. Similar story last year and then he got the job done with a 2nd place finish at the European Masters. Storm has shown a bit of form recently, if he can get it going he can compete with the best, 225/1 makes him worth a speculative pick.
It really is hard to look much beyond Jason Day here. The price is skinny at 7/2 but in a 30 player field, a man that has won four of his last six tournaments is going to be pretty short. He won last week in a canter so should have plenty in the tank to go again. With the stakes being so high, it is hard to see anyone outside the top eight in the market winning here. Even with McIlroy, Speith & Stenson out there, it has to be Day for me.
Ricky Fowler 12/1 (Coral)
Fowler is the only other player that represents any value to me at 12/1. He has shot eight consecutive rounds in the 60s and is at the top of his game. He has a bit to go to beat Day but if he puts it all together, he is the best value of the rest.
This is tough because there isn't much course form to go on and this is an event that hasn't been held recently. I have looked at the course layout and my gut feeling is that it will favour GIR players and particularly players that can one putt because there should be plenty of birdie opportunities. This is largely guesswork on my part and could prove to be totally wrong but is the basis for my selectons.
Another factor is that there are so many players who are taking or have just taken their mid season break, which makes it harder to judge how they will play. Some come back fresh & revitalised whereas others take several weeks to get back in the groove. My gut feeling is to follow the players in form.
Max Kieffer 33/1 (General)
He is the mast of consistency, making 22 consecutive cuts and I have little doubt that he will be there or thereabouts this week. Maybe not our winner but the best bet for a Top Five place
David Howell 40/1 (General)
Howell caught my eye with a 12th placed finish at the KLM two weeks ago and got a final round 66 at the Italian Open last week. I feel this course could have been designed for Howell - get on the green in regulation then have a putt for a birdie so expect a good showing.
Fabrizio Zanotti 40/1 (General)
He won his only tour event a year ago this month and hasn't threatened since until this month when he has come out from under the radar again with a 4th at the KLM two weeks ago and a Tied 3rd at the Italian last week, one behind the winner. He has rough edges but appears to be a streaky player & he is currently on a streak. A September player?
Rikard Karlberg 50/1 (Paddy Power)
He has been up there threatening for the last couple of weeks and he got there last week by beating Martin Kaymer in a Playoff to win the Italian Open. Several players recently have followed up a first tour win with another top performance (Pieters, Slattery etc) so at this price is worth having on side.
Alejandro Canizares 55/1 (General)
This is a bit of a punt in that I feel he could be the next one to get that first tour win. He has hit eight consecutive rounds in the 60s, which gets him right in contention. Now if he can turn 68s in 65s then this could be his week.
I was tempted by Horsey & Slattery who have had recent wins and think Paul Lawrie should do well on this course.
Porsche European Open This is tough because there isn't much course form to go on and this is an event that hasn't been held recently. I have looked at the course layout and my gut feeling is that it will favour GIR players and particularly players that can one putt because there should be plenty of birdie opportunities. This is largely guesswork on my part and could prove to be totally wrong but is the basis for my selectons. Another factor is that there are so many players who are taking or have just taken their mid season break, which makes it harder to judge how they will play. Some come back fresh & revitalised whereas others take several weeks to get back in the groove. My gut feeling is to follow the players in form. Max Kieffer 33/1 (General) He is the mast of consistency, making 22 consecutive cuts and I have little doubt that he will be there or thereabouts this week. Maybe not our winner but the best bet for a Top Five place David Howell 40/1 (General) Howell caught my eye with a 12th placed finish at the KLM two weeks ago and got a final round 66 at the Italian Open last week. I feel this course could have been designed for Howell - get on the green in regulation then have a putt for a birdie so expect a good showing. Fabrizio Zanotti 40/1 (General) He won his only tour event a year ago this month and hasn't threatened since until this month when he has come out from under the radar again with a 4th at the KLM two weeks ago and a Tied 3rd at the Italian last week, one behind the winner. He has rough edges but appears to be a streaky player & he is currently on a streak. A September player? Rikard Karlberg 50/1 (Paddy Power) He has been up there threatening for the last couple of weeks and he got there last week by beating Martin Kaymer in a Playoff to win the Italian Open. Several players recently have followed up a first tour win with another top performance (Pieters, Slattery etc) so at this price is worth having on side. Alejandro Canizares 55/1 (General) This is a bit of a punt in that I feel he could be the next one to get that first tour win. He has hit eight consecutive rounds in the 60s, which gets him right in contention. Now if he can turn 68s in 65s then this could be his week. I was tempted by Horsey & Slattery who have had recent wins and think Paul Lawrie should do well on this course. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Just one place this week with Karlberg tied 5th so need to do better this week.
This is an interesting championship because it is played across three courses, St Andrews, Carnoustie & Kingsbarns with all players playing one round on each course before a cut on the Saturday and one final round at St Andrews.
The field is stronger than normal with Martin Kaymer heading the betting at 16/1 with appearances from Brandon Grace, Brookes Koepka & Charl Schwartzel and others.
Broadly, we should be looking at links course specialists but this event can throw up a shock winner.
Martin Kaymer 16/1
A justifiable favourite. He is in form and won this event in 2010. It's not so much that I am right behind him but I don't want to be against him.
Danny Willett 25/1
He is in decent form with a 3rd place at the Italian Open and knows his way around here with a 2nd in 2010 & a 5th in 2012.
Shane Lowry 25/1
Here is a links course specialist and a man in form, winning the Bridgestone Invitational last month. He has finished 3rd & 6th in the last two years so should go close.
Thomas Pieters 45/1
No doubt about his form as he has won his last two events despite carrying my money. He finished a respectable 18th last year and is much improved this season. Has no great links pedegree but I cannot desert the hottest player on the European Tour.
David Howell 66/1
Decent form with three seconds and a third this season. His record in this tournament is as good as anybody's with five top ten finishes including a win in 2013.
David Lingmerth 80/1
Think he is at a generous price and may be off the bookies radar as he plays mainly on the PGA Tour.
Oliver Wilson 500/1
There is only one reason for this bet. We are being offered 500/1 for the player that won this event last year. He was also second in 2009 but his form this season has been terrible but he might just lift himself like last year.
Well after last weeks 225/1 second, 150/1 tied 5th and 14/1 tied 3rd I feel like that's a nice set of results to hang my hat on. From here on in I'll be pulling for Danny Willett every time he tees it up and hoping the other R2D contenders go on a bad run. Good Luck Ice Tiger and anyone else who post on here and keeps the thread running. Maybe catch you later. Posted by TheDart
Don't stop because you give an interesting insight every week.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship) : Don't stop because you give an interesting insight every week. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Very kind of you to say so.
I've been posting on here a while, I joined this thread as it was a good place to share insights as you put it, but there was also some good exchanges of banter, I mean sometimes, people even questioned my sanity and sexuality!
The interest level in recent weeks, seems to have gone flat and to be honest if you hadn't have a come a long, I would have probably stopped sooner, figuring I'd give it a rest and come back next year, probably for The Masters when there is a wider appeal.
I like your picks this week from Kaymer through to Howell and looks like you are already ahead of the game in getting the best prices.
Now that I'm here I may as well declare my picks for the week.
For me I will be surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of the market leaders, certainly somebody priced at 33/1 or lees, their credentials are so strong for this week.
But I couldn't pick just one or two or even three, so apart from saying come on Danny Willett go and get a big bag of those juicy R2D points on offer; with 6 places, I've gone for a few speculative each way chances.
Byeung Hung An - 40/1 Graeme Mcdowell - 50/1 (big week possible me thinks) Eddie Pepperell - 66/1 (I was very early in getting this price) Sean O' Hair - 100/1 (always seen him as a good links player, also backed him at 8/1 for Top American) Tom Lewis - 140/1 Graeme Storm - 150/1 Oliver Fisher - 300/1
Struggling to track much recent course form for Woburn so am going to go with current form. I do think the course favours long accurate hitters that can hit GIR.
Shane Lowry 20/1 Looked to be in form last weekend & should go very close.
Danny Willett 20/1 Think he is ready to take one down & this couse looks right for him.
Thomas Pieters 66/1 The course didn't suit last week but it should be better this week. Hopefully back to his best.
Paul Dunne 80/1 He looked good last week and epect a decent showing again this week at a decent price.
Comments
Estanisiao Goya - 50/1, half decent course form, good record in the wind including a win, a sudden return to form last week with a second place finish, good start yesterday.
Andy Sullivan - 22/1, seven shots of the lead but quality player, enough said.
I liked Thomas Pieters a lot, I like him even more now :-)
The best price of 75/1 lured me in for the second win as much as anything , I'm sure the bookies will not be so generous next time out.
Well done Ice, lets keep this going.
Going to be busy with work for the next couple of days so had to get in early this week.
BMW Championship
Another play off event that switches courses, with 2013 being the one time they previously played here.
Not too far from Whistling straits, the course is said to been designed as links style course and looking at 2013, you can see a number of links and wind players faired well.
Zach Johnson - 28/1, if you skip by the obvious chances of Day, Stenson, Rory, Spieth, Fowler etc, the most obvious value bet has to be Zach Johnson. He won the event on this course in 2013, he's the reigning Open champion.
Louis Oosthuizen - 50/1, Louis was absent in 2013 but I'd imagine this course and conditions would be perfect for him.
Paul Casey - 66/1, Having a great season and as with Louis you would imagine this course and conditions will be ideal for Paul Casey.
Russell Knox - 100/1, in 2013 it was noticeable that ball strikers as opposed to grip it and rip it players did particularly well, Furyk shot a 59 and Kuchar a 61, both should do well again, but at 2-3 times the price I think Knox is worth a shot. He's another player who has had a very good season and is still improving.
No course form to go on and this early inn the week, I've not come across any useful inside info, which means I've had to try and work out the right time of profile myself.
I've decided that we are looking for good ball strikers, with accuracy tee to green and also ruled out players that are not blessed with great length of the tee.
Danny Willett springs to mind but then again with my R2D investment he springs to mind every week. First week back and priced at just 14/1, I cant back him this week but wont be too miffed if he should win.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 25/1, unusually inconsistent week in Holland for Fitz, he threw in a 60 with 3 very mixed bags.
With young players it doesn't take much to fix what ever is broke, so I fully expect him to be hitting plenty of fairways and greens in regulation this week. Close to that first win and a new course for everyone is a great leveler for Fitzpatrick.
Tommy Fleetwood - 50/1, his first round back last week was full of rust, cobwebs and cow dung. His second round was much better but he missed the cut by one.
I'm trusting he didn't waste his weekend off, as at his best in this field he has a decent chance and 50/1 represents very good value.
Alexander Levy - 50/1, sometimes I get suckered in by the price, Levy at 50/1 is such an occasion. He's well rested which can work either way, at 50/1 I think he's worth a speculative each way tipple.
Kristoffer Broberg - 66/1, time to have another go with Mr. Broberg. I think he's continued to play well and he would fall into the category of not being far a way from a really big week. If ball striking and accuracy tee to green is at a premium this week, he won't let you down.
It's another challenging week on the European Tour, with as far as I can see, the only recent course form to be found for an event on the 2013 Challenge Tour.
Byeong Hun An - 28/1, after a quiet summer he won in Korea last week, An played in the 2013 Challenge Tour event here and finished a not too shabby tied 12th.
David Lipsky - 66/1, playing very well at the moment, one shot off the play off last week, he may not be a 'houshold' name but he was a winner on tour last year and also won the Asian Order of Merit which is no mean feat.
Jaco Van Zyl - 66/1, last week was his first tournament back for two months and he finished a credible tied 14th, this included a round of 65 and 66. He already has three top 3 finishes on tour this year including at the Open de France.
Lucas Bjerregaard - 150/1, ticks the same box as An with a tied 12th here in 2013 and ticks the same box as Lipsky in finishing one shot off the play off last week. Those boxes are the right boxes to tick so at 150/1 Lucas B looks good value this week.
Graeme Storm - 225/1, he's struggling at 127th in the R2D so needs a big week to get inside the top 110 and secure his card for next year. Similar story last year and then he got the job done with a 2nd place finish at the European Masters. Storm has shown a bit of form recently, if he can get it going he can compete with the best, 225/1 makes him worth a speculative pick.
Tour Championship
I'd been struggling for a bit of inspiration here, but managed to find some courtesy of a Chinese fortune cookie :-)
The colour red will bring you luck!
Clearly it has to be Patrick Reed - 40/1, its written in the stars.
I'm also on:
Justin Rose - 14/1, very strong course form and playing well.
Paul Casey - 50/1, finished 4th in his only other appearance here, had a great season, capable of finishing off with a big result.
I've been posting on here a while, I joined this thread as it was a good place to share insights as you put it, but there was also some good exchanges of banter, I mean sometimes, people even questioned my sanity and sexuality!
The interest level in recent weeks, seems to have gone flat and to be honest if you hadn't have a come a long, I would have probably stopped sooner, figuring I'd give it a rest and come back next year, probably for The Masters when there is a wider appeal.
I like your picks this week from Kaymer through to Howell and looks like you are already ahead of the game in getting the best prices.
Now that I'm here I may as well declare my picks for the week.
For me I will be surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of the market leaders, certainly somebody priced at 33/1 or lees, their credentials are so strong for this week.
But I couldn't pick just one or two or even three, so apart from saying come on Danny Willett go and get a big bag of those juicy R2D points on offer; with 6 places, I've gone for a few speculative each way chances.
Byeung Hung An - 40/1
Graeme Mcdowell - 50/1 (big week possible me thinks)
Eddie Pepperell - 66/1 (I was very early in getting this price)
Sean O' Hair - 100/1 (always seen him as a good links player, also backed him at 8/1 for Top American)
Tom Lewis - 140/1
Graeme Storm - 150/1
Oliver Fisher - 300/1
Good Luck Ice Tiger and any lurkers out there