Been looking at the Deutsche Bank for this weekend.
Very hard to see beyond Jason Day, who was awesome last week so will be going with him. Was also thinking Justin Rose but have decided to give him a pass this week. I was hoping for 70/1+ to go with Paul Casey but maybe another time. Hoping that Speith & McIlroy will be concentrating on each other too much & allow someone else in here.
I have gone with:
Jason Day 13/2 (Paddy Power)
Henrik Stenson 16/1 (Coral)
Robert Streb 60/1 (Paddy Power)
Russell Henley 75/1 (Bet365)
Ryan Palmer 90/1 (Paddy Power)
Steven Bowditch 150/1 (Bet Victor)
Bryce Molder 250/1 (SKY Bet)
Think that gives me a good portfolio although inevitably I will find another couple I want to add before Friday.
There is a weak field for the Russian Open & I was hoping to see 25/1 for Bradley Dredge but can't go at 16/1.
Have to take on Kieffer. The question is who will be the one. I have picked three for now & may add another tomorrow.
Robert Dinwiddie 20/1 (General)
Craig Lee 40/1 (Coral)
Simon Wakefield 150/1 (SKY Bet)
Was really impressed with Dinwiddie last week & if he plays as well this week, he will be very close. Lee tends to do well on shorter courses so could get in the frame. Wakefield is a bit of a punt really but in this field, he might just get there if he can put together four good rounds.
After a very rewarding week last week, I'm really disappointed with the prospect of these two events.
From A betting point of view I can't get too excited about either event, the Russian Open for its very weak field and the unknown of a new course and Deutsche Bank for the opposite but equally frustrating feel, with a high quality field, plenty of course form all of which suggests that the cream and hence the poorly priced market leaders should rise to the top.
But for sake of having an interest on a Thursday and Friday, l have made small investments in.....
Russian Open
Paul Peterson - 66/1, youngish American who managed five top 5's on the Asian Tour last year and is ranked 9th on the order of merit this year.
Jazz Janewattananond - 80/1, 19 year old Thai player of much promise. Opened with a 65 at the European Masters last month, he has some good results on the Asian Tour. He is only going to get better, probably has more potential than most when it comes to winning a golf tournament on the European Tour.
Jaco Ahlers - 100/1, He has won twice on the Sunshine Tour over the last 12 months, so gets a tentative pick as a golfer who is a proven multiple winner and there aren't many of those in the field this week.
Henrik Stenson - 16/1, Henrik isformer course winner is a decent alternative with reasonable value compared to the 3 number 1 ranking contenders.
Brendan Steele - 150/1, he has a top 10 finish here in 20111 and has shot plenty of rounds in the 60's around here, I've also taken 4/1 on a top 20 finish for Brendan Steele.
David Hearn - 200/1, I have to confess if I think about it too long, David Hearn in this field doesn't look to be too clever a pick. But if I don't think about it too much, David Hearn is having his best year to date, he has 4 tops 10's including a play off loss and 3rd place finish at his native Canadian Open.
There is a weak field for the Russian Open & I was hoping to see 25/1 for Bradley Dredge but can't go at 16/1. Have to take on Kieffer. The question is who will be the one. I have picked three for now & may add another tomorrow. Robert Dinwiddie 20/1 (General) Craig Lee 40/1 (Coral) Simon Wakefield 150/1 (SKY Bet) Was really impressed with Dinwiddie last week & if he plays as well this week, he will be very close. Lee tends to do well on shorter courses so could get in the frame. Wakefield is a bit of a punt really but in this field, he might just get there if he can put together four good rounds. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Had a great run from Craig Lee, who missed a place by one shot and winning by four. He missed too many putts inside ten foot on the final round and a terrible approach on the 15th turned a likely birdie (to be one off the lead) into a bogey.
A good run at 40/1 and one to watch for in a weak field on a course like this. Now over to Henrik Stenson!
Been looking at the Deutsche Bank for this weekend. Very hard to see beyond Jason Day, who was awesome last week so will be going with him. Was also thinking Justin Rose but have decided to give him a pass this week. I was hoping for 70/1+ to go with Paul Casey but maybe another time. Hoping that Speith & McIlroy will be concentrating on each other too much & allow someone else in here. I have gone with: Jason Day 13/2 (Paddy Power) Henrik Stenson 16/1 (Coral) Robert Streb 60/1 (Paddy Power) Russell Henley 75/1 (Bet365) Ryan Palmer 90/1 (Paddy Power) Steven Bowditch 150/1 (Bet Victor) Bryce Molder 250/1 (SKY Bet) Think that gives me a good portfolio although inevitably I will find another couple I want to add before Friday. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Stenson was an unlucky second after dominating the tournament so a bit disappointing.
A stronger field than in recent weeks with Martin Kaymer as a 10/1 favourite. I am looking to take him on with four reasonably priced players.
Joost Luiten 20/1 (General) The local favourite and has finished first and fifth since the event moved to this course. Got a 4th place at the Scottish in July but on his favourite course, he should go close.
David Horsey 50/1 (Bet365) Another player who comes alive in this event with three top ten finishes in the last six years. Bang in form as well with a 3rd last week in the Russian Open and winning in Denmark two weeks before that.
Miguel Angel Jininez 50/1 (General) There is a name that I didn't think I would be including in this thread. MAJ picks his tournaments now as he flirts with the Seniors Tour but this is one of his favourites. He has three top ten finishes in his last five attempts including a 2nd two years ago. Three Top Six finishes on the European Tour this season shows he can still mix it with the best so 50/1 is value in my eyes.
Thomas Pieters 75/1 (Bet365) It is hard to know how a player will react to his first win but at 75/1, I am prepared to go again with Pieters after his impressive win in the Czech Masters ten days ago. He might miss the cut but he might also blow the field away with his new found confidence.
A few others that came into my thinking were Andy Sullivan 33/1, Eddie Pepperill 33/1, Tyrell Hatton 28/1, Gregory Havret 80/1, Johan Carlsson 150/1 & Oliver Fisher 200/1. Hope none of them go close.
Well after cleverly telling my son to blow a freebet (after round 1) on Richie Fowler (but not backing him myself). This week I've told him to blow another free bet on Richie Ransay each way.
We are always looking for players who tick boxes, clearly Joost Luiten ticks a whole load of boxes this week and there is no obvious reason why he shouldn't be backed, even at 20/1. As for me, I've always had a weakness for ignoring the obvious, so as a few alternatives to Kaymer and local favorite Luiten, I'm on:
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, was having a great season until a disappointing missed cut at The Open, missed the cut in the next two events he played, which means he hasn't played 4 rounds since the Scottish Open in early July.
If well rested and fresh as opposed to rusty, he has the game to suit this course and the skills set to cope with the wind.
Richie Ramsay - 33/1, players who do well at the Trophy Hassan II event, seem to do well here, Ramsay won in Morocco this year, he's having a very good season and looks a decent bet this week.
Chris Wood 50/1, another player to fit the profile of a likely winner around here. Not played that much recently but if he starts well he could well be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Thomas Pieters - 75/1, Ice Tiger sums up my own reasoning perfectly. The one major concern I have is that on a course where errant drives can find trouble and lead to drop shots, Pieters is one of only 8 players on tour who has hit the fairway with less than 50% of his drives this season.
Alejandro Canizares - 80/1, On seeing the tee times, all 4 of my picks are in the afternoon side of the draw. This is an event where the weather can be a factor, with one side of the draw sometimes getting 'the luck of the draw'.
So I wanted to take one player from the morning starters and have stuck with the Morocco theme as Canizares won that event in 2014, he's shown a bit of form recently, the risk is he has always been a bit of a hit and miss player, but if he's on his game this week, conditions should suit and at 80/1 could be good value.
With the early tee time I'm also taking the 70/1 for FRL.
Going to add Tommy Fleetwood to my list. Got 35/1 with Bet365. Think he is playing with Pieters this afternoon so should be good to watch the contrast in styles. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Uggh! On this occasion I wish you hadn't joined me.
With an opening triple bogey, its clearly the rusty version of Tommy Fleetwood as opposed to the well rested and fresh version.
Can't see Fleetwood even making the cut now.
At least Pieters appears to have brought his good form to Holland and luckily for you, Mr. Ice so has David Horsey.
I'd also add that after posting my picks, I half addressed my achilles heel of ignoring the obvious and had a saver on Joost Luiten at 20/1, just enough to ensure I get my money back and freeroll next week, if he should win.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (KLM Open) : Uggh! On this occasion I wish you hadn't joined me. With an opening triple bogey, its clearly the rusty version of Tommy Fleetwood as opposed to the well rested and fresh version. Can't see Fleetwood even making the cut now. At least Pieters appears to have brought his good form to Holland and luckily for you, Mr. Ice so has David Horsey. I'd also add that after posting my picks, I half addressed my achilles heel of ignoring the obvious and had a saver on Joost Luiten at 20/1 , just enough to ensure I get my money back and freeroll next week, if he should win. Long way to go yet though. Posted by TheDart
More than happy with Luiten & HorseyTied 4th on -7, two off the lead. Clearly the morning players had the best of the weather so it could turn around tomorrow if the wind gets up in the afternoon.
Comments
Nice one guys.
After a very rewarding week last week, I'm really disappointed with the prospect of these two events.
From A betting point of view I can't get too excited about either event, the Russian Open for its very weak field and the unknown of a new course and Deutsche Bank for the opposite but equally frustrating feel, with a high quality field, plenty of course form all of which suggests that the cream and hence the poorly priced market leaders should rise to the top.
But for sake of having an interest on a Thursday and Friday, l have made small investments in.....
Russian Open
Paul Peterson - 66/1, youngish American who managed five top 5's on the Asian Tour last year and is ranked 9th on the order of merit this year.
Jazz Janewattananond - 80/1, 19 year old Thai player of much promise. Opened with a 65 at the European Masters last month, he has some good results on the Asian Tour. He is only going to get better, probably has more potential than most when it comes to winning a golf tournament on the European Tour.
Jaco Ahlers - 100/1, He has won twice on the Sunshine Tour over the last 12 months, so gets a tentative pick as a golfer who is a proven multiple winner and there aren't many of those in the field this week.
Henrik Stenson - 16/1, Henrik is former course winner is a decent alternative with reasonable value compared to the 3 number 1 ranking contenders.
Brendan Steele - 150/1, he has a top 10 finish here in 20111 and has shot plenty of rounds in the 60's around here, I've also taken 4/1 on a top 20 finish for Brendan Steele.
David Hearn - 200/1, I have to confess if I think about it too long, David Hearn in this field doesn't look to be too clever a pick. But if I don't think about it too much, David Hearn is having his best year to date, he has 4 tops 10's including a play off loss and 3rd place finish at his native Canadian Open.
We are always looking for players who tick boxes, clearly Joost Luiten ticks a whole load of boxes this week and there is no obvious reason why he shouldn't be backed, even at 20/1. As for me, I've always had a weakness for ignoring the obvious, so as a few alternatives to Kaymer and local favorite Luiten, I'm on:
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, was having a great season until a disappointing missed cut at The Open, missed the cut in the next two events he played, which means he hasn't played 4 rounds since the Scottish Open in early July.
If well rested and fresh as opposed to rusty, he has the game to suit this course and the skills set to cope with the wind.
Richie Ramsay - 33/1, players who do well at the Trophy Hassan II event, seem to do well here, Ramsay won in Morocco this year, he's having a very good season and looks a decent bet this week.
Chris Wood 50/1, another player to fit the profile of a likely winner around here. Not played that much recently but if he starts well he could well be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Thomas Pieters - 75/1, Ice Tiger sums up my own reasoning perfectly. The one major concern I have is that on a course where errant drives can find trouble and lead to drop shots, Pieters is one of only 8 players on tour who has hit the fairway with less than 50% of his drives this season.
Alejandro Canizares - 80/1, On seeing the tee times, all 4 of my picks are in the afternoon side of the draw. This is an event where the weather can be a factor, with one side of the draw sometimes getting 'the luck of the draw'.
So I wanted to take one player from the morning starters and have stuck with the Morocco theme as Canizares won that event in 2014, he's shown a bit of form recently, the risk is he has always been a bit of a hit and miss player, but if he's on his game this week, conditions should suit and at 80/1 could be good value.
With the early tee time I'm also taking the 70/1 for FRL.
Good Luck All
With an opening triple bogey, its clearly the rusty version of Tommy Fleetwood as opposed to the well rested and fresh version.
Can't see Fleetwood even making the cut now.
At least Pieters appears to have brought his good form to Holland and luckily for you, Mr. Ice so has David Horsey.
I'd also add that after posting my picks, I half addressed my achilles heel of ignoring the obvious and had a saver on Joost Luiten at 20/1, just enough to ensure I get my money back and freeroll next week, if he should win.
Long way to go yet though.