This is an interesting tournament where picking a winner from a field of 156 players looks very difficult. The betting is headed by Zach Johnson, Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner & Matt Kucher, all at double figures prices. This is the sixth running of this event (formally the McGladrey Classic) at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. There is a change to the format this year with all players playing one of their opening two rounds on the Plantation Course, while their other rounds will be played on the Seaside Course, which has been used fully in previous years.
We are guessing with the Plantation Course but its set up, layout & distance is similar to the Seaside Course so it is probably fair to say that basing judgement on the Seaside Course will be sound here.
A look at the five previous winners suggests that the big names don't appear to fair particularly well here. All five winners here kicked off at 50/1 or greater with two being available at triple figure prices.
The courses are relatively short and driving distance & accuracy doesn't seem to be any advantage here. It is all about play around the green and particularly putting. It is an exposed course and the weather is forcasted to be breezy so the ability to play in adverse conditions could be important. Course knowledge could also be useful as two of the previous winners (Kirk & Slocum) are both locals as it appears that it takes a while to work out how to play this course.
Three of the previous five winners came top on performance on Par 4 holes while another came fourth so the likelihood is that the winner will be a Par 4 specialist.
Zach Johnson is local and has played the course many times but he is involved in organising the event and has missed the cut twice & not made the top ten in five attempts. Other local players include Matt Kucher, Harris English & Russell Henley.
Graeme McDowell 28/1
Can't help but be impressed by GMac's performance in winning last week at the OHL Classic. He hit his first shot out of bounds but recovered to lead after two rounds. Hit his first shot of the third round out of bounds but recovered to make a playoff then hit the sweetest approach to birdie the first playoff hole & take the title. His post tournament interview was candidly revealing when he admitted to wondering if he would ever win again. That weight has been lifted off his shoulders and he is best player in this field on a course ideally suited to his game. Can never be certain which way it will go after a win but is great value here.
Patton Kizzire 40/1
Patton lives locally and has a good record on this course, leading his college team to victory here in 2007. In a recent interview, he said that Sea Island is his favourite course. He finished second at the Shiners & fifth at the Sanderson Farms so is in form on a couse he loves. Could go close.
Johnson Wagner 66/1
Another player with local connections who trains at Sea Island. Is starting to show form, finishing 15th & 8th in the last two weeks and playing on his home course could see it happen. His game is suited for the course and he tops the PGA Tour list stats for short putts and scrambling - important attributes here.
Brice Garnett 100/1
Another player with great putting & scrambling stats so ideally suited here. Two tournaments & two top ten finishes this season make him excellent value.
Will MacKenzie 175/1
Looking for a long priced winner then MacKenzie could be your man. His record isn't outstanding but he does come alive on this course, evidenced best a year ago when he was beaten in a playoff by Robert Streb.
Others worth considering are Streb, English, Kirk, Kokrak, Streelman, Stroud, Stegmaier, Love III & Blixt, several at big prices. Tough to pick a winner here but think we have a team at good prices to take on the favourites and with Paddy Power offering seven places this week, great each way value.
Just noticed that you can get 11/10 on McIlroy for a Top Five finish at the DP World Tour Championship.
This has to be amazing value considering he has five top five finishes out of six in this event and also five top five finishes out of six in the UAE. He also has the incentive of being the R2D Champion, which will stop any potential blow ups.
Just noticed that you can get 11/10 on McIlroy for a Top Five finish at the DP World Tour Championship. This has to be amazing value considering he has five top five finishes out of six in this event and also five top five finishes out of six in the UAE. He also has the incentive of being the R2D Champion, which will stop any potential blow ups. This looks like a good opportunity to lump on. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Rory just won so hopefully everyone took advantage of this price.
RSM Classic This is an interesting tournament where picking a winner from a field of 156 players looks very difficult. The betting is headed by Zach Johnson, Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner & Matt Kucher, all at double figures prices. This is the sixth running of this event (formally the McGladrey Classic) at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. There is a change to the format this year with all players playing one of their opening two rounds on the Plantation Course, while their other rounds will be played on the Seaside Course, which has been used fully in previous years. We are guessing with the Plantation Course but its set up, layout & distance is similar to the Seaside Course so it is probably fair to say that basing judgement on the Seaside Course will be sound here. A look at the five previous winners suggests that the big names don't appear to fair particularly well here. All five winners here kicked off at 50/1 or greater with two being available at triple figure prices. The courses are relatively short and driving distance & accuracy doesn't seem to be any advantage here. It is all about play around the green and particularly putting. It is an exposed course and the weather is forcasted to be breezy so the ability to play in adverse conditions could be important. Course knowledge could also be useful as two of the previous winners (Kirk & Slocum) are both locals as it appears that it takes a while to work out how to play this course. Three of the previous five winners came top on performance on Par 4 holes while another came fourth so the likelihood is that the winner will be a Par 4 specialist. Zach Johnson is local and has played the course many times but he is involved in organising the event and has missed the cut twice & not made the top ten in five attempts. Other local players include Matt Kucher, Harris English & Russell Henley. Graeme McDowell 28/1 Can't help but be impressed by GMac's performance in winning last week at the OHL Classic. He hit his first shot out of bounds but recovered to lead after two rounds. Hit his first shot of the third round out of bounds but recovered to make a playoff then hit the sweetest approach to birdie the first playoff hole & take the title. His post tournament interview was candidly revealing when he admitted to wondering if he would ever win again. That weight has been lifted off his shoulders and he is best player in this field on a course ideally suited to his game. Can never be certain which way it will go after a win but is great value here. Patton Kizzire 40/1 Patton lives locally and has a good record on this course, leading his college team to victory here in 2007. In a recent interview, he said that Sea Island is his favourite course. He finished second at the Shiners & fifth at the Sanderson Farms so is in form on a couse he loves. Could go close. Johnson Wagner 66/1 Another player with local connections who trains at Sea Island. Is starting to show form, finishing 15th & 8th in the last two weeks and playing on his home course could see it happen. His game is suited for the course and he tops the PGA Tour list stats for short putts and scrambling - important attributes here. Brice Garnett 100/1 Another player with great putting & scrambling stats so ideally suited here. Two tournaments & two top ten finishes this season make him excellent value. Will MacKenzie 175/1 Looking for a long priced winner then MacKenzie could be your man. His record isn't outstanding but he does come alive on this course, evidenced best a year ago when he was beaten in a playoff by Robert Streb. Others worth considering are Streb, English, Kirk, Kokrak, Streelman, Stroud, Stegmaier, Love III & Blixt, several at big prices. Tough to pick a winner here but think we have a team at good prices to take on the favourites and with Paddy Power offering seven places this week, great each way value. Posted by Ice_Tiger
McDowell finished 3rd to give us a tidy profit on this event.
Just days after McIlroy won the final event of the 2015 season and the Race To Dubai, the 2016 season begins in South Africa this week at Leopard Creek in Malelane.
The field looks pretty weak apart from the big name South Africans - Grace, Schwartzel & Oosthuizen who are all single figure prices. In many ways it is like last week as the first decision is whether to go with the three favourites or oppose them.
This event has been held on this course for 12 consecutive years so we have plenty of form in the book. The Gary Player designed course primarily favours players that can make GIR and putt well but driving distance appears to be more advantageous than accuracy.
While Oosthuizen has a poor record here & is easy to oppose, Grace won here last year & finished 3rd in the R2D & Schwartzel has won here three times including 2012 & 2013 and he finished 4th last week in Dubai. However, I am going for some value because with three players in single figures and a massive field, there are some good prices to be had.
Lee Slattery 50/1
Slattery says this is his favourite course on the circuit and his game is ideally suited as evidenced by his second place here in 2007. He has stepped up a level this year, winning the Russian Open and was back to his best last week in Dubai, playing the final 24 holes in 13 under par. In this field, he can definately get a place and is as well placed as anyone to beat the three big names.
Hennie Otto 70/1
Otto has a decent record here with four top ten finishes here including a win back in 2003. His games is suited and the price is fair.
Thomas Aiken 50/1
Two top five finishes in this event and with most of his best results in South Africa, Aiken can give us a run at a big price.
Trevor Fisher Jnr 50/1
He picked up his first European Tour win last season and was 4th here last year. Finished 3rd in his last event, the Portugal Masters so is in decent form.
Of the leading three, I prefer Schwartzel but small bets to take on the big three this week. Might find another one or two to add on tomorrow.
A difficult event for betting with world number one Jordan Speith here defending the title he won 12 months ago. He is best priced 15/8 and a most likely winner here but hard to back at that price. It does mean that there is some decent value out there for place bets this week.
After Speith, Adam Scott is a strong second favourite at 13/2 and is the most likely winner should Speith slip up. Other notables competing are Lee Westwood & Darren Clarke but it looks like picking someone to come out of the pack for a place.
Marc Leishman 20/1
I think Leishman is the most likely winner of the rest. He is getting back to his best form, finishing 11th at the HSBC Champions Trophy. I think the best value bet is to back him for a Top Five finish at 4/1.
Brett Rumford 45/1
Rumford's best result was a surprise 6th at the Masters so clearly has the quality. Well suited by this course and finished third last year. Again, probably best to go for a Top Five place at 8/1
Todd Sinnott 250/1
This is a bit of a punt but he is certainly bullish about his chances from his twitter feed. I have gone for a Top Five finish at 50/1.
Emirates Australian Open A difficult event for betting with world number one Jordan Speith here defending the title he won 12 months ago. He is best priced 15/8 and a most likely winner here but hard to back at that price. It does mean that there is some decent value out there for place bets this week. After Speith, Adam Scott is a strong second favourite at 13/2 and is the most likely winner should Speith slip up. Other notables competing are Lee Westwood & Darren Clarke but it looks like picking someone to come out of the pack for a place. Marc Leishman 20/1 I think Leishman is the most likely winner of the rest. He is getting back to his best form, finishing 11th at the HSBC Champions Trophy. I think the best value bet is to back him for a Top Five finish at 4/1. Brett Rumford 45/1 Rumford's best result was a surprise 6th at the Masters so clearly has the quality. Well suited by this course and finished third last year. Again, probably best to go for a Top Five place at 8/1 Todd Sinnott 250/1 This is a bit of a punt but he is certainly bullish about his chances from his twitter feed. I have gone for a Top Five finish at 50/1. Good Luck! Posted by Ice_Tiger
Great run for our money with Rumford & Sinnott tying for 8th position. Obviously a 250/1 winner would be great but I did back Sinnott at 20/1 for a top ten finish so not all bad.
where's the dart gone?! he's the best tipper out there, had all the Thomas Pieters Wins.. just couldnt comment at the time! thanks darty if your reading. Posted by mrdavies
Very decent of you to post that Mr. Davies, thank you.
I'm still following the golf and dabbling, even had a few nice wins but they don't count on here if you don't post them.
Think I'll probably be back sharing my ramblings in the new year and see if the interest levels are a bit higher.
In the meantime good luck IceTiger and well done on keeping the thread going.
I see you've been close to a big win a few times, hopefully the extra birdie or eagle will come this week.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Alfred Dunhill & Australian Open) : Very decent of you to post that Mr. Davies, thank you. I'm still following the golf and dabbling, even had a few nice wins but they don't count on here if you don't post them. Think I'll probably be back sharing my ramblings in the new year and see if the interest levels are a bit higher. In the meantime good luck IceTiger and well done on keeping the thread going. I see you've been close to a big win a few times, hopefully the extra birdie or eagle will come this week. Posted by TheDart
Seem to have been breaking even since the two Thomas Pieters wins in the summer until I bet massive on McIlroy for a Top Five finish in Dubai which gave me a lot more to play with. Fortunately I am making loads on the football.
This has moved to a new course so no course form to go on. The Albany Course in the Bahamas is supposed to play like a links course so I am going to side with Adam Scott at 18/1 here in a quality field.
Speith is a strong favourite at 7/2 with Dustin Johnson 7/1 & Justin Rose 8/1. Think Scott is the best value in a quality field.
DARTY!! I cant believe youve had winners and not posted them.. thats not fair. every thursday i used to put all your bets on out of my poker roll & my weekend was sorted following the golf..and you almost guaranteed me value for money every week.
lets start a petition to bring the dart back! I havent placed a bet on the golf since you left
Ok, lets see if we can get this thread going again.
First tournament of the year, with too many unknowns for comfort I don't feel tempted to spread the muck too far and at this stage am only going for two speculative ew picks.
South African Open Grace is the class horse in the field and is rightly the clear fav at 5/1. Next in the betting is last years winner Andy Sullivan 10/1.
Think the bookies have it right with these two and wouldn't want to put anyone off backing them, but first event of the year they are worth opposing.
So for a bit of ew value I'm going for:
Marcus Kinhult 66/1 19 year old Swede making his professional debut on tour after winning his card at tour school Played a couple of events on tour as an amateur last year and looks to be the next big thing You'd expect him to be ready and fearless this week, with nothing to lose.
Dean Burmester 66/1 South African who has played most of his golf on the Sunshine tour where he is a multiple winner Looks to be improving quickly and I don't expect him to be this big a price for too many more South African tournaments
A field of 32, but it doesn't get much easier with Spieth and Day at the head of the field at 5's and 6's Aggressive players can score very low here, DJ won two years ago and at 8/1 is almost appealing
The wind can blow here which would increase Rickie Fowlers chances at 12/1.
Patrick Reed at 11/1 looks to be the obvious pick this week, last years winner and a player who finished 2015 very strongly. I'm starting the new year by not ignoring the obvious and backing Reed ew first 4.
Further down the field....
Debutant Brooks Koepka at 28/1 could look great value if he takes to the course and his long aggressive style suggests he might find his feet quickly
At 66/1 Chris Kirk is interesting, he's played here the last two seasons and on each occasion shot two rounds in the 60's and two over par rounds.
If he can have a more consistent week he could get in the mix especially considering his last round around here was a match of the course record 62.
Maybe worth a look in the first round leader market.
How about the thoughts of Ice Tiger?
Does Flash fancy a wager on the golf to kick off the new year?
Gl Darty, hope the thread picks up this year. I'm sure it will to begin with. I won't be betting on golf this year with maybe the exception of the majors.
Branden Grace & Andy Sullivan lead the betting. Sullivan at 17/2 is a decent price but I prefer to go with bigger prices.
Trevor Fisher Junior 50/1
He has good record on this course & finished 2015 in form so is value at the price.
Heine Otto 55/1
Another player who likes the Glendower course, finishing 2nd & 13th in the last two years.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 300/1
This is a bit of a punt but he has the credentials at a massive price. He had six wins in 2015 on the Big Easy Tour & Sunshine Tour including one on this course. Could give a decent run at a big price.
A decent quality field with Speith at 5/1, Day at 6/1 and Dustin at 8/1.
Think it is more open than that so going for slightly better prices.
Justin Thomas 28/1
Won backing Thomas last season & could easily smash up this course at a decent price.
Graeme McDowell 25/1
If any player finished 2015 in form, it was McDowell with a 1st & a 3rd in December. He is also well suited to this sort of course and shouldn't be affected by the wind.
South African Open Branden Grace & Andy Sullivan lead the betting. Sullivan at 17/2 is a decent price but I prefer to go with bigger prices. Trevor Fisher Junior 50/1 He has good record on this course & finished 2015 in form so is value at the price. Heine Otto 55/1 Another player who likes the Glendower course, finishing 2nd & 13th in the last two years. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 300/1 This is a bit of a punt but he has the credentials at a massive price. He had six wins in 2015 on the Big Easy Tour & Sunshine Tour including one on this course. Could give a decent run at a big price. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Had to look this guy up and see he has had a very interesting career so far.
Top South African amateur in 2014, until a 12 month ban for taking beta blockers stopped him in his tracks.
Looks like you are right about him having the right credentials, potentially anyway.
Comments
thanks darty if your reading.
I'm still following the golf and dabbling, even had a few nice wins but they don't count on here if you don't post them.
Think I'll probably be back sharing my ramblings in the new year and see if the interest levels are a bit higher.
In the meantime good luck IceTiger and well done on keeping the thread going.
I see you've been close to a big win a few times, hopefully the extra birdie or eagle will come this week.
lets start a petition to bring the dart back! I havent placed a bet on the golf since you left
First tournament of the year, with too many unknowns for comfort I don't feel tempted to spread the muck too far and at this stage am only going for two speculative ew picks.
South African Open
Grace is the class horse in the field and is rightly the clear fav at 5/1.
Next in the betting is last years winner Andy Sullivan 10/1.
Think the bookies have it right with these two and wouldn't want to put anyone off backing them, but first event of the year they are worth opposing.
So for a bit of ew value I'm going for:
Marcus Kinhult 66/1
19 year old Swede making his professional debut on tour after winning his card at tour school
Played a couple of events on tour as an amateur last year and looks to be the next big thing
You'd expect him to be ready and fearless this week, with nothing to lose.
Dean Burmester 66/1
South African who has played most of his golf on the Sunshine tour where he is a multiple winner
Looks to be improving quickly and I don't expect him to be this big a price for too many more South African tournaments
A field of 32, but it doesn't get much easier with Spieth and Day at the head of the field at 5's and 6's
Aggressive players can score very low here, DJ won two years ago and at 8/1 is almost appealing
The wind can blow here which would increase Rickie Fowlers chances at 12/1.
Patrick Reed at 11/1 looks to be the obvious pick this week, last years winner and a player who finished 2015 very strongly. I'm starting the new year by not ignoring the obvious and backing Reed ew first 4.
Further down the field....
Debutant Brooks Koepka at 28/1 could look great value if he takes to the course and his long aggressive style suggests he might find his feet quickly
At 66/1 Chris Kirk is interesting, he's played here the last two seasons and on each occasion shot two rounds in the 60's and two over par rounds.
If he can have a more consistent week he could get in the mix especially considering his last round around here was a match of the course record 62.
Maybe worth a look in the first round leader market.
How about the thoughts of Ice Tiger?
Does Flash fancy a wager on the golf to kick off the new year?
Anyone else out there?
Good Luck all
Top South African amateur in 2014, until a 12 month ban for taking beta blockers stopped him in his tracks.
Looks like you are right about him having the right credentials, potentially anyway.
I'll join you on a small ew tipple.