I hit the crossbar in Africa last week..... Then in Hawaii a few of us hit the crossbar, the ball then ran along the line, hit the post, then bounced out!!!!!
Anyway another week.....
In the USA I'm taking a 3 pronged attack with decent priced players. Bit of a lottery as its an event where 3 courses are used and 2 of them new to the tour. Well 1 of them was used in the 70's but player power got it thrown out for being too hard!!!!!
Finau 80/1 Deleat 55/1 (someone took the 60/1 last night ��) and Steele 66/1 (good luck as its only available with Stan James on line) so 50/1. All ew.
Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets.
There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1.
McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win.
Thomas Pieters 55/1 Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price.
Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value.
Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week.
Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above.
Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices.
This is a tricky event in terms of courses with three courses being used, two of them new to the circuit. It is reasonable strength field with the leading players Reed, Kuchar & Zach Johnson.
Reed is a pretty good favourite here. He comes into the tournament in good form but it is hard to get too interested at 10/1 so again I am looking for bigger prices that offer some value.
Bill Haas 28/1 Picking a winner here is tricky but Haas ticks the boxes that we think need ticking. He won this event last year, was 6th in 2014, runner up in 2011 & winner in 2010. Haas' record shows that he performs particularly well in the first two months of the year with three of his six PGA titles coming in these months.
Charley Hoffman 45/1 He is a consistent performer now and showed his liking for this event finishing second last year. Should give a good run at a decent price.
Jamie Lovemark 100/1 A promising player with a top twenty finish at the US Open last season. He is a native Californian so should be at home here and has finished top ten in his last two PGA events, the RSM Classic & Sony Open. His last eight rounds have all been in the 60s and he finished 65-65 last week. Not the finished article but at 100/1 is great value.
Robert Garrigus 200/1 A bit of a punt. He has a 2nd & a 6th on two of the courses being used this week so should feel at home. He is 200/1 and has a shot.
Twice before I've recommended a big punt on Rory ew approx 4-5/1 in Europe (In the UAE to be more specific). In the knowledge he's v unlikely not to place so we get our money back at least. Both times as it happens he's won!!!
I'm going in a 3rd time.
Spieth playing muddies the waters a bit yes, but without him Rory would be 5/2-3/1 so not so easy to back ew. Rory's finished 2nd 4 out of the last 5 years (the other time he was having off the course issues with his old management company). Twice he's picked up penalties in that time that cost him a play off. It's only a matter of time before he picks up the big falcon.
My other 2 selections are in the 'without Rory and Spieth' market. In effect we are betting on 2 diff tournies in 1 event.
Dubuisson 22/1-25/1 and Weisberger 30/1-33/1 (I took paddy's 35/1 soz) are the men, both ew.
Both played well here last year, and both played in The Asia Cup last week to blow the cobwebs away. I expect a strong performance from them.
Rory-Weisberger-Dubuisson finishing order would be nice!!!!
For the third week running I'm partly in agreement with Neil for the PGA event and have gone for:
Graham Delaet 66/1, any regular lurkers will know I've backed Delaet once or twice before
First time out last week he started poorly and looked like missing the cut, but moved through the field impressively over the next 3 days, eventually finishing 7th, which was perfect as I didn't back him.
Tony Finau 66/1, seems to be there or there abouts most week, courses and conditions should suit.
Neil rightly says this is a bit of a lottery and in betting terms it does have the feel of a Grand National type field, a strong looking favourite but anything is possible.
My other two picks are:
Patton Kizzire 80/1, number one on web.com last season, already came close to winning on pga tour in November.
Playing a lot of courses for the first time which can be a disadvantage but this week it's more of a level playing field as Kizzire has played at least two of the courses competitively.
Matt Jones 66/1, he beat Spieth in the Australian Open at the end of November and has form / experience at La Quinta courses
If it's the Grand National in the USA, in Abu Dhabi it looks very much like a Gold Cup field at the head of the market at least, with some real quality runners
Would never disagree with Neil on weeks like this and will be happy to see Rory win, as long as I find somebody to take a place behind him
Alternatives for me are....
Agreeing with Neil again...
Bernd Wiesberger 50/1 first 6 or 33/1 without Rory and Spieth. I think he could be in for a big year and has form here.
Danny Willett 33/1, I'm a big Danny Willett fan, it doesn't matter who is in the field any time he's priced at 33/1 he looks great value to me
Joost Luiten 70/1, 45/1 without, a couple of 6 place finishes here, been out practicing in Dubai for a week and has a new caddie with plenty of experience on the bag, which could be worth a shot or two.
Peter Hanson 150/1, 100/1 without. I probably wouldn't bother if he was 50/1 but at 150/1 I think he's underrated and well overpriced. He has plenty top tens here over the last 10 years. Struggled with injury for well over 12 months but starts 2016 with a clean bill of health
Ok to Eurooe:- Twice before I've recommended a big punt on Rory ew approx 4-5/1 in Europe (In the UAE to be more specific). In the knowledge he's v unlikely not to place so we get our money back at least. Both times as it happens he's won!!! I'm going in a 3rd time. Spieth playing muddies the waters a bit yes, but without him Rory would be 5/2-3/1 so not so easy to back ew. Rory's finished 2nd 4 out of the last 5 years (the other time he was having off the course issues with his old management company). Twice he's picked up penalties in that time that cost him a play off. It's only a matter of time before he picks up the big falcon. My other 2 selections are in the 'without Rory and Spieth' market. In effect we are betting on 2 diff tournies in 1 event. Dubuisson 22/1-25/1 and Weisberger 30/1-33/1 (I took paddy's 35/1 soz) are the men, both ew. Both played well here last year, and both played in The Asia Cup last week to blow the cobwebs away. I expect a strong performance from them. Rory-Weisberger-Dubuisson finishing order would be nice!!!! Posted by joesman1
This is excellent advice. It is hard to visualise McIlroy failing to get a place here. He may get beaten by a player that has a fantastic week but he will be close. Alternatively, you can back McIlroy at Evens for a Top Five finish as a lower variance bet. This was the bet I had for the R2D Grand Final in December at 5/4 then.
There are lots of question marks about Speith in the desert which makes the McIlroy prices more attractive.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : This is excellent advice. It is hard to visualise McIlroy failing to get a place here. He may get beaten by a player that has a fantastic week but he will be close. Alternatively, you can back McIlroy at Evens for a Top Five finish as a lower variance bet. This was the bet I had for the R2D Grand Final in December at 5/4 then. There are lots of question marks about Speith in the desert which makes the McIlroy prices more attractive. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Thanks Steve.... Good luck us all this week
Edit:- I've just seen Betfred have gone 66/1 Olesen in the without market. I've jumped on that as it screams v good value.
G.Delaet 50/1ew (Have followed far to often for my own good but once again into the breach...)
D.A.Points 500/1ew (& 20/1 top 20)Last year he seemed to pop up at a price and in contention. If he can put 4 rounds together he makes the cut and top 20 must be feasible and 125/1 top 6 a bonus!
Abu Dhabi :
Martin Kaymer 20/1ew (Hopefully he can't choke as badly as last time around here!)
Brandon Grace 20/1ew and Haydn Porteous 150/1ew(Both look in form S. Africans)
Also had few £ on Rory McIlroy and Bill Haas both top 5 including ties at 19/2.
I recently backed Reed E/W for the Hyundai.That came up well. He finished 2nd albeit 8 shots behind Speith. He's a young talent that is starting to flourish. I still think that at 9/1 he still holds value. Especially since he has the 72 hole (Career Builder) record at -28 Under.
Abu Dhabi: Rafa Cabrera-Bello E/W
This is a good value shout. 100/1 for a desert player, in the desert. Ranked 9th on the European tour for GIR's (Greens In Regulation) last year, I see everything coming together to give him a great shout at great value E/W.
Abu Dhabi Open Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets. There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1. McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win. Thomas Pieters 55/1 Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price. Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value. Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week. Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above. Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Hate to get too excited too early but all three of this week's selections are in the Top Twelve after Round One at 55/1, 70/1 & 150/1 with Bryson De Chambeau (our 150/1 shot) leading the field on -8.
I did something that I don't normally do yesterday - I backed BDC to be First Round Leader at 85/1 so already into profit. It was thanks to other posters on here suggesting FRL bets so I decided to back any of my players that had a morning start today & BDC was the only one so threw a few bob his way.
I thought i recognised De Chambeau's name on the leader board and checked back here. Very well done and great tip again. Pleased you also got a return on FRL market.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Hate to get too excited too early but all three of this week's selections are in the Top Twelve after Round One at 55/1, 70/1 & 150/1 with Bryson De Chambeau (our 150/1 shot) leading the field on -8. I did something that I don't normally do yesterday - I backed BDC to be First Round Leader at 85/1 so already into profit. It was thanks to other posters on here suggesting FRL bets so I decided to back any of my players that had a morning start today & BDC was the only one so threw a few bob his way. Posted by Ice_Tiger
I was hoping you backed BDC for FRL, there's nothing more annoying than picking out a three figure golfer who has a good week and getting nothing back.
This is why I tend to cover myself with the odd FRL bets, especially when they have a morning tee time.
Hopefully this was the first slice of the cake and there's more to follow over the next three days.
I remembered he was one of your picks, so when he was 3 or 4 under and available at 66/1, I added him to my portfolio.
Its a big ask for him to stay up on that leaderboard, but you never know.
Abu Dhabi Open Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets. There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1. McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win. Thomas Pieters 55/1 Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price. Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value. Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week. Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above. Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Think this works out as a pretty profitable weekend.
Pieters finished second at 55/1 & Luiten Tied 5th at 70/1 for 1/3 of a place. Most importantly, McIlroy got a Top Five finish as I mentioned in another post, I got Evens for Top Five so lumped on.
Just need a good final day on the PGA to top off my weekend.
Career Builder Challenge This is a tricky event in terms of courses with three courses being used, two of them new to the circuit. It is reasonable strength field with the leading players Reed, Kuchar & Zach Johnson. Reed is a pretty good favourite here. He comes into the tournament in good form but it is hard to get too interested at 10/1 so again I am looking for bigger prices that offer some value. Bill Haas 28/1 Picking a winner here is tricky but Haas ticks the boxes that we think need ticking. He won this event last year, was 6th in 2014, runner up in 2011 & winner in 2010. Haas' record shows that he performs particularly well in the first two months of the year with three of his six PGA titles coming in these months. Charley Hoffman 45/1 He is a consistent performer now and showed his liking for this event finishing second last year. Should give a good run at a decent price. Jamie Lovemark 100/1 A promising player with a top twenty finish at the US Open last season. He is a native Californian so should be at home here and has finished top ten in his last two PGA events, the RSM Classic & Sony Open. His last eight rounds have all been in the 60s and he finished 65-65 last week. Not the finished article but at 100/1 is great value. Robert Garrigus 200/1 A bit of a punt. He has a 2nd & a 6th on two of the courses being used this week so should feel at home. He is 200/1 and has a shot. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Picked up 2/3 of a PLACE on Lovemark at 100/1 (1/5 TOP Seven) which works out a touch over 13/1. Add that to the profit from the European Tour & it has been a profitable weekend.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Picked up 2/3 of a PLACE on Lovemark at 100/1 (1/5 TOP Seven) which works out a touch over 13/1. Add that to the profit from the European Tour & it has been a profitable weekend. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Well done (again) Steve, nice picks last week. Racing Post followers were also on Lovemark, so I bet the bookies gave a big sigh of relief when he started wobbling on the back nine last night.
As for Europe, well done on Pieters. Can't help but think if Rory sacked his putting coach Dave Stockton and his bizarre methods, and instead relied on his own instinct, he'd bang a lot more of those 6ft birdie putts in. Then it's game over.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Well done (again) Steve, nice picks last week. Racing Post followers were also on Lovemark, so I bet the bookies gave a big sigh of relief when he started wobbling on the back nine last night. As for Europe, well done on Pieters. Can't help but think if Rory sacked his putting coach Dave Stockton and his bizarre methods, and instead relied on his own instinct, he'd bang a lot more of those 6ft birdie putts in. Then it's game over. Posted by joesman1
Good job I got on early to get the price.
The Qatar Masters starts on Wednesday this week. I have got my bets on already. Will post up tomorrow.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Good job I got on early to get the price. The Qatar Masters starts on Wednesday this week. I have got my bets on already. Will post up tomorrow. Posted by Ice_Tiger
Also had BDC for first round leader and a lump on McIlroy for Top Five.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Also had BDC for first round leader and a lump on McIlroy for Top Five. Posted by Ice_Tiger
This event is played at the Doha Golf Club and the form from previous years gives us a pretty clear identikit picture of our likely winner. The course favours good driving distance but less so driving accuracy as the rough is short and not to be feared much. GIR and putting accuracy are the other key attributes here. It is also noticeable that previous winners here are players that perform well on links courses so looking at links winners could be useful.
The wind can be a big factor here but the weather reports are inconclusive as to when the wind will hit but it could easily rule out half the field if it hits at the wrong time. It usually takes a score between -14 & -20 to win here so birdies on the par five holes is important.
Also this tournament is played Wednesday - Saturday so don't forget to get on early.
Branden Grace & Sergio Garcia lead the betting followed by Pieters, Oosterhuizen & Fitzpatrick.
I think the bookies appear to have the odds about right so I am betting smaller this week and have covered more players.
Branden Grace 8/1
Grace is a worthy favourite. He won here last year with a total of -19. He meets the profile to do well on this course and is in form, finishing in the Top Eight in all of his last five tournaments including Tied 5th last week at Abu Dhabi.
Sergio Garcia 9/1
Garcia won here two years ago so is proven over the course. It is his first event of the year so form is uncertain but when he is hot, he is hot & could easily hit six birdies on the trot to boost his chances. Think the price is about fair.
Thomas Pieters 20/1
I was hoping for a better price but the combination of last week's second place and course that is ideal for him, means the bookies are taking no chances. He belts his drives a long way and shouldn't get in too much trouble with wayward drives, meaning he should be chasing birdies on all the par five holes. He is also more than capable around the green & is usually a top putter.
Rafa Cabrera Bello 40/1
Think 40/1 is great value for another player ideally suited by this course. He has two third place finishes in this event and looked good last week in his first event of the year, finishing 14th. He should go closer this week.
Trevor Fisher Jnr 90/1
He has performed well this season but is still under the radar so 90/1 is great value. In his three tournaments this year, he has finished Tied 8th, Tied 13th & Tied 16th.
Bryson De Chambeau 80/1
Showed his potential last week, leading after Round One. Will have learned from that and will last longer this time. 80/1 is about right but I will stand by my man.
I think there are quite a few others who should do well and were on my long list including Chris Wood, Alejandro Canizares, Thomas Bjorn, Mikko Ilonen, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Warren, Brett Rumford & Michael Hoey.
There will be a high luck factor but hopefully with six players, we get some that get best of the conditions.
Comments
For the third week running I'm partly in agreement with Neil for the PGA event and have gone for:
Graham Delaet 66/1, any regular lurkers will know I've backed Delaet once or twice before
First time out last week he started poorly and looked like missing the cut, but moved through the field impressively over the next 3 days, eventually finishing 7th, which was perfect as I didn't back him.
Tony Finau 66/1, seems to be there or there abouts most week, courses and conditions should suit.
Neil rightly says this is a bit of a lottery and in betting terms it does have the feel of a Grand National type field, a strong looking favourite but anything is possible.
My other two picks are:
Patton Kizzire 80/1, number one on web.com last season, already came close to winning on pga tour in November.
Playing a lot of courses for the first time which can be a disadvantage but this week it's more of a level playing field as Kizzire has played at least two of the courses competitively.
Matt Jones 66/1, he beat Spieth in the Australian Open at the end of November and has form / experience at La Quinta courses
ABu Dhabi
If it's the Grand National in the USA, in Abu Dhabi it looks very much like a Gold Cup field at the head of the market at least, with some real quality runners
Would never disagree with Neil on weeks like this and will be happy to see Rory win, as long as I find somebody to take a place behind him
Alternatives for me are....
Agreeing with Neil again...
Bernd Wiesberger 50/1 first 6 or 33/1 without Rory and Spieth. I think he could be in for a big year and has form here.
Danny Willett 33/1, I'm a big Danny Willett fan, it doesn't matter who is in the field any time he's priced at 33/1 he looks great value to me
Joost Luiten 70/1, 45/1 without, a couple of 6 place finishes here, been out practicing in Dubai for a week and has a new caddie with plenty of experience on the bag, which could be worth a shot or two.
Peter Hanson 150/1, 100/1 without. I probably wouldn't bother if he was 50/1 but at 150/1 I think he's underrated and well overpriced. He has plenty top tens here over the last 10 years. Struggled with injury for well over 12 months but starts 2016 with a clean bill of health
This is why I tend to cover myself with the odd FRL bets, especially when they have a morning tee time.
Hopefully this was the first slice of the cake and there's more to follow over the next three days.
I remembered he was one of your picks, so when he was 3 or 4 under and available at 66/1, I added him to my portfolio.
Its a big ask for him to stay up on that leaderboard, but you never know.