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Bad Beats & Dark Horses

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  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Remember when you'd be in a pub or club (cast your minds back) and your bladder would innocently sync up with a that of another person? And you would continually cross paths awkwardly in the toilet?

    Well, my bladder seems in perfect synchronicity with my being dealt QQ -> AA.

  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Christmas Time, Mistletoe and Whine.
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    mikee417Small blind150.00150.0025760.00
    DUTCHESS62Big blind300.00450.0011825.00
    Your hole cards
    • A
    • J
    eddiesCall300.00750.0028757.51
    mushroom1All-in5025.005775.000.00
    GenghisK42Fold
    mikee417Fold
    DUTCHESS62Fold
    eddiesCall4725.0010500.0024032.51
    eddiesShow
    • 7
    • 6
    mushroom1Show
    • A
    • J
    Flop
    • 6
    • 4
    • K
    Turn
    • 9
    River
    • 7
    eddiesWinTwo Pairs, 7s and 6s10500.0034532.51
    I don't think I've seen such craziness in a venue during December, and I've been to the Ally Pally during PDC.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    mushroom1 said:

    In recent times, the King George VI Chase has been dominated by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Colin Tizzard.

    The three yards have won every renewal since 2006 and have been responsible for 73% of all win/placed horses since 2009.

    With their combined runners dominating the markets every year, their blanket success during this time is understandable and, given the trio are responsible for six of the nine (likely) runners on Boxing Day, only a brave man would bet against another carve up.

    I am such a man. Kind of.

    Before continuing, let me be clear; I believe it is extremely likely that Saturday will prove another Nicholls/Henderson/Tizzard benefit. However, there could be some value surrounding one of the three runners aiming to upset the clique.

    I shall continue this later.

    Apologies for the tardiness of this completion, and for any laziness of writing which, if apparent, would in no way relate to the six (ish) empty bottles of Peroni currently lying in the recycling.

    At the time of my initial post, the price of either Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname landing the race 2/11. Instinctively, this seemed very short, prompting closer inspection on a race which, initially, hadn't sparked my interest.

    Having won the race in 2018 and 2019, Clan Des Obeaux's credentials are obvious. However, did those races fall apart in-running>

    In 2018, the favourite, Mite Bite, burst a blood vessel and the second-favourite, Waiting Patiently, was brought down by Bristol De Mai - himself fancied at 8/1 - at the 9th fence.

    In 2019, the 5/4f, Cyrname, undoubtedly under-performed and the 15/8 second- fav, Lostintranslation, was never happy, pulling-up after jumping poorly with a breathing problem cited.

    While I am not foolish enough to completely crab a dual King George winner, it appears that Clan Des Obeaux may not have achieved quite as much as previous double winners of the Kempton showpiece.

    With three impressive Ascot victories in 2019, Cyrname looked a genuine King George contender - the kind of horse we've seen many times, one that will fly around Kempton in December before treading water halfway up the hill at Cheltenham in ten weeks later.

    It was no surprise to see him sent off 5/4 jolly to fulfill that potential in last year's event, however, although finishing second (of four finishers), he was beaten 21l and his performance is best described as lacklustre.

    In a recent interview, Paul Nicholls stated his runner is best fresh, suggesting his disappointing effort was a result of last years event coming too soon after his win at Ascot on 23rd November and that, with a longer break this time, we will see him at his best on his second attempt.

    He has put in some fantastic performances off the back of a break, which sides with his handler's remarks, however, some of his very best performances came without a break beforehand. Horses change, so it could be that he now needs to be fresh to show his best, but, given what we know, the evidence is inconclusive.

    Next in the betting is Nicky Henderson's Santini, who finished runner-up in the Gold Cup back in March. While the consistent chaser appears a solid each-way chance, he may lack the toe to land a typical King George and he often finds one too good in this class.

    While I am not suggesting that Santini is not genuine, his near-misses in big races suggest he could be a little soft in a finish, or simply just shy of top class.

    It's likely he will be staying on at the death, so would not put anyone off backing him each-way.

    I am, generally, a fan of Lostintranslation and backed him to return to form (after disappointing in this event last year) in last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup. There were excuses (ground, jumping, breathing) for his poor effort in this last year but I've always viewed him as a Gold Cup type rather than King George and I am unconvinced this is his race.

    I remember Real Steel travelling well in the Gold Cup before weakening into a respectable 6th place in the Gold Cup - one of a few form lines that suggest a crack at 3m is long overdue.

    Having joined Paul Nicholls since, he isn't the the easiest to assess and his chances relate solely to how his Gold Cup effort is assessed. While the bare evidence (travelling well before failing to fully get home over 3m2f) demands respect in this event, it is unsure exactly what was achieved with the Cheltenham performance - the field was pretty bunch in the later stages with many holding a chance, with pace (or a change of) perhaps playing a part in overrating efforts.

    While there is doubt over Cyrname's need to be fresh, the same cannot be said about Saint Calvados. Harry Whittington's chaser is clearly at his best when given time before his races. With at leas 88 days between races, his career form reads 11111, in relation to 16114337422 on all other starts.

    Having never won over further than 2m2f, or even tackled a trip further than 2m4f, stamina is a justifiable concern, however, at 20/1, punters are arguably paying a fair price to ignore those fears. It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him go well, for a time at least, which could offer trading opportunities.

    Having run only 13 times in five seasons in training, there cannot be many horses more appropriately named than Waiting Patiently.

    Not only have injuries kept robbed him of a number of big race targets, he is a horse whose running style requires his pilot to bide their time to nerve-testing degrees.

    Although it was too early to know how close he would've gone, he was travelling well when brought down in the 2018 running of the King George but, given Brian Hughes' reaction immediately after, it's fair to say his rider believed they held a live chance.

    Will complete later.





  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 157,207

    Will complete later


    Such a tease. Very enjoyable write-up so far though.
  • daggers747daggers747 Member Posts: 185
    Free 5 pound bet on Betfair to all customers for King George. Happy Christmas.
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    Ruth has always held Waiting Patiently in the highest regard,but the horse has never had the chance to really show what he can do either trip interference or rides it's been given.
    As for Saint Calvados if that stays the trip i will give the game up again,it's a bang front running 2 miler even Kempton will find him out stamina wise.
    Good luck if you play mr mush.
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    gpc70 said:

    Ruth has always held Waiting Patiently in the highest regard,but the horse has never had the chance to really show what he can do either trip interference or rides it's been given.
    As for Saint Calvados if that stays the trip i will give the game up again,it's a bang front running 2 miler even Kempton will find him out stamina wise.
    Good luck if you play mr mush.

    great ride on the winner the rest of them want shooting
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Tikay10 said:


    Will complete later


    Such a tease. Very enjoyable write-up so far though.

    As one can tell from the timing of my second King George post, I really tried to complete the piece before Boxing Day. Sadly, I came up short so, for that, I apologise.

    However, I hope some were still able to find it entertaining and, dare I say it, useful?

    Although I had yet to mention Frodon, he was not part of my betting plan and, although I have more than a soft spot for the horse, he would not have been part of the conclusion.

    The conclusion would have stated that I had backed Waiting Patiently each-way at 25/1 and taken 22/1 about Saint Calvados with a view to trade in-running at numerous stages throughout the race - in an attempt to, at least, ensure a "free" bet before aiming to create a win-win scenario, regardless of finishing position.

    My Saint Calvados plan was explained above, however, I did not get around to fully explaining my thoughts on Waiting Patiently. In short, he appeared more solid than those shorter in the market and, with my questioning of those heading the betting, I couldn't look past Ruth Jefferson's consistent chaser at 25/1 or thereabouts - the price more than big enough to allay the (possibly overplayed) stamina concerns.

    Both wagers proved successful, which, given multiple near-misses on the all-weather leading up to Christmas, was much needed.

    Cyrname and Lostintranslation again flopped in this event. Paul Nicholls' pre race theory that Cyrname would be at his best due to being fresh was disproved - something I questioned above.

    Also eluded to was the likely tactics aboard Waiting Patiently - did his rider wait a little too patiently? Probably, even considering he did so to ensure his mount saw out the trip.

    Saint Calvados ran almost the race I expected him to. He was at his best and travelled best, before failing to get home. He wasn't helped by racing keenly, so it may be that be can win over 3m, however, it is not his optimum distance.

    I would go straight to Cheltenham where, after another lay-off, he would take a lot of beating in the Ryanair - or maybe even the Champion Chase?



  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Like I was prior to Christmas, I am becoming happier with my game, with definitely consistency creeping back.

    I have made a profit in three of the four UKOPS played so far. Nothing major, but the signs are there.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    edited December 2020
    mushroom1 said:

    Remember when you'd be in a pub or club (cast your minds back) and your bladder would innocently sync up with a that of another person? And you would continually cross paths awkwardly in the toilet?

    Well, my bladder seems in perfect synchronicity with my being dealt QQ -> AA.

    Cosmic. Cos-****-mic.
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    MAXALLYSmall blind40.0040.004157.50
    RichiegoneBig blind80.00120.004615.00
    Your hole cards
    • K
    • K
    mushroom1Fold
    Sharki0Fold
    Parsons98Fold
    Ironpump1Fold
    MAXALLYRaise120.00240.004037.50
    RichiegoneCall80.00320.004535.00
    Flop
    • Q
    • J
    • 5
    MAXALLYCheck
    RichiegoneBet200.00520.004335.00
    MAXALLYFold
    RichiegoneMuck
    RichiegoneWin320.004655.00
    RichiegoneReturn200.000.004855.00
  • loosecamelloosecamel Member Posts: 152
    We do want to play tighter when UTG, but KK just about makes it into our raising range pre here Mushroom. It is scary raising into Maxallys small blind, but we should be raising here regardless as Max will have AA less than 100% of the time
  • tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,719

    We do want to play tighter when UTG, but KK just about makes it into our raising range pre here Mushroom. It is scary raising into Maxallys small blind, but we should be raising here regardless as Max will have AA less than 100% of the time

    Dunno if this is an ‘in’ joke , but I read it as as bad timing on loo break. 😊
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    mush is never folding kk pre he was either getting a beer or in the loo
    tomgoodun said:

    We do want to play tighter when UTG, but KK just about makes it into our raising range pre here Mushroom. It is scary raising into Maxallys small blind, but we should be raising here regardless as Max will have AA less than 100% of the time

    Dunno if this is an ‘in’ joke , but I read it as as bad timing on loo break. 😊
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    1/3 beer 9/4 loo
  • gpc70gpc70 Member Posts: 1,997
    Mr mush has had a 3000 to one on
  • EnutEnut Member Posts: 3,237
    I don't understand this, I have been watching the various excellent Sky player Twitch streams and I thought it was now universally understood that KK was a snap fold pre? :D
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    My Sporting Heroes of Villains of 2020

    Boxing
    Hero - Tyson Fury
    Villain - Kenny Bayless

    Snooker
    Hero - Ronnie O'Sullivan
    Villain - Mark Selby

    Football
    Hero - Marcus Rashford
    Villain -

    Cricket
    Hero - Rashid Khan
    Villain -

    Racing
    Hero - Hollie Doyle
    Villain -

    Please help to fill in the gaps and/or feel free to submit an alternative to those above.

  • tomgooduntomgoodun Member Posts: 3,719
    Football
    Villain ~ VAR
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Regarding the small band of dark horses I have mentioned on this thread...

    Kylla Looks just won again, landing the Wolverhampton 7:50 at 9/2. 121 form lines since flagging her up as one to monitor (winning at 28/1 previously). The handicapper cannot raise her too much for this, so I expect her to remain competitive going foward.

    Thematic finished 2nd in a Wolves hcap last week, running well.

    Sarah's Verse was smashed from 40/1 into around 14/1 this morning (possibly due, in part at least, to my associates and I) before being declared a non-runner, which was bitterly disappointing.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    gpc70 said:

    mush is never folding kk pre he was either getting a beer or in the loo

    tomgoodun said:

    We do want to play tighter when UTG, but KK just about makes it into our raising range pre here Mushroom. It is scary raising into Maxallys small blind, but we should be raising here regardless as Max will have AA less than 100% of the time

    Dunno if this is an ‘in’ joke , but I read it as as bad timing on loo break. 😊
    I'm different league...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    hhammerheaSmall blind125.00125.009886.75
    FITBHITFBig blind250.00375.006340.00
    Your hole cards
    • Q
    • Q
    TTT69Fold
    mushroom1Fold
    FroozleFold
    KingKong33Fold
    hhammerheaCall125.00500.009761.75
    FITBHITFCheck
    Flop
    • 4
    • 8
    • 4
    hhammerheaCheck
    FITBHITFCheck
    Turn
    • 2
    hhammerheaBet388.00888.009373.75
    FITBHITFCall388.001276.005952.00
    River
    • 3
    hhammerheaBet638.001914.008735.75
    FITBHITFFold
    hhammerheaMuck
    hhammerheaWin1276.0010011.75
    hhammerheaReturn638.000.0010649.75
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