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Horses for Cheltenham

vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,308
edited March 2012 in Sports & Betting Chat
Just seen the most impressive display by Sprinter Sacre , beating the course record hard held so 5-4 for the Arkle looks good.

Also other horses on my short list so far, i am sure it will get bigger are,

Bless the Winds
Chapoturgeon
Rocky Creek
Zarkander bound to be placed in champion Hurdle and could surprise Hurricane Fly

 Father Vaigret
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    if taking raya star as a guide in regards form, you'll have to have another look at rock on ruby's win over him in the handicap earlier this season, if memory serves he was giving more weight away than Zarkander did, and Rock on ruby W/O the fly @ 9/1 looks a standout bet, couldnt envisage rock on ruby finishing outside top 4, relishes the hill.

    i noted on todays racing thread that Zarkander could be a handicap snip but did not want to play given the price and Nicholls' record in race. I failed to mention at the time, which I meant to, was that even given this stat, theres always a chance that he never had one as good as Zarkander running in it, and that most definately proved the case. Hats off he looks very smart, the triumph form did already but hes improved again and will improve further for his run in March after today's outing.

    From my previous posts you may well have hooked onto the fact that I like to try to find alternatives to the favs and get them beat, or at least have some e/w value. In all fairness I had tried to do same with spirit son come march but had fingers burnt antepost. This was further heightened by the fly's build up thorught season, various setbacks ringing the alarm bells of old, but after the irish champ hurdle, theres no getting away from the fasct that once the fly turns up in March he wins. So the w/o market (you could have had Zark in that @ 4's before today) looks the best option if not ready to plough into the defending champion.
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    moonooomoonooo Member Posts: 554
    edited February 2012
    The two best bets for me at Cheltenham this year are in the 2 dodge pot races i normaly avoid..The foxhunters & the xc chase..Chapoturgeon & Scotsirish..If Chapoturgeon stays the trip & Scotirish doesnt fall, i see nothing with the class to beat these 2..33/1 for the double.

    And as for Zarkander today i have no idea how that won, knew it was a snip before the race but he sure showed balls today..Watched the replay 4 times and still dont picture it winning at the finish lol..
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    aye ive been thinking of a first day mullins treble, that was until i dreamt on wednesday night that Quevega fell!!!!!!!!!!! :-0
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    vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,308
    edited February 2012
    BellPoker

    I think Raya Star has improved and Zarkander will as well and I cant see Rock on Ruby ever beating a horse which Nicholls obviously thinks is top top class.

    You might be right about the Fly but i cant get off a horse that has now won four out of 4 very impressively. Today he was impressive because he didnt look like the winner for most of race. 

    Father V
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    SJspanky1SJspanky1 Member Posts: 620
    edited February 2012
    Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Quevega looking absolute certs for day 1......but remember 2011 when all big faves at Festival bar Big Bucks did disastrously. Think I'm looking at lumping on faves and then searching for a little e/w value around them.
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: Horses for Cheltenham:
    Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Quevega looking absolute certs for day 1......but remember 2011 when all big faves at Festival bar Big Bucks did disastrously. Think I'm looking at lumping on faves and then searching for a little e/w value around them.
    Posted by SJspanky1
    it's not just 2011 mate, it's every year. if the favs hosed up in every race the bookies would be very poor. they don't and they're not. short priced ones espec at the festival, tread with caution! every year theres a few hyped up ones (some more than others) and every year a few at the very least flatter to deceive.

    I'll be following Alan King off an absolute cliff, none of his are under 7's ante post, got them covered in all sorts of min stakes perms for life changing money, likliehood they all won't win, but they'll all run their races and give 100 per cent, yard in fine form with 3 weeks to go, can't wait!!!
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: Horses for Cheltenham:
    Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Quevega looking absolute certs for day 1......but remember 2011 when all big faves at Festival bar Big Bucks did disastrously. Think I'm looking at lumping on faves and then searching for a little e/w value around them.
    Posted by SJspanky1
    re the lumping on part, theres an old addage that if you fancy for talks sake a 5/2 shot and a 16/1 shot in same race, you should back double as much on the 16/1 shot! i myself am thinking of doing a few shorties in perms but they require decent stakes and im slightly loathe as if i think hard enough back over the years theres been the same old hype and alot of the 'nailed on' certainties fail to deliver
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    THEROCK573THEROCK573 Member Posts: 2,550
    edited February 2012

    IF YOU LOOK ON WILLIAM HILL, GRAND CRUS IS 5/2 TO WIN ANY RACE AT CHELTENHAM, CRACKING BET IN MY OPINION, IF IT RUNS IN THE RYANAIR IT WILL WIN NO DANGERS!!! I ALSO WOULDNT LIKE TO BACK AGAINST IT WINNING THE GOLD CUP IF ITS RUNS, IT RAN OVER THE SAME DISTANCE AS KAUTO AT KEMPTON AND BEAT KAUTOS TIME THAT DAY, ADD TO THE FACT THAT GOING UP THE HILL WILL BE HUGE ADVANTAGE TO THE HORSE I CAN SEE IT BOUNDING CLEAR OF KAUTO AND LONG RUN!!!

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    andybuckandybuck Member Posts: 652
    edited February 2012
    fingal bay for me as long as the ground isnt to quick,,all ready backed midnight chase for gold cup ,,backed it last year finished 5th jumped poor,,,started backing it the day after last years race at 50s 40s and 33s ew,,just recently backed it w/o kauto and long run ew at 8s also backed weird al w/o kauto and long run aswell,,both cheltenham specialists,,
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    vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,308
    edited February 2012
    hi andy

    I have a feeling about Midnight Chase as well. Loves the course and was impressive last run
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    midnight chase's run last year in this was good imo!!! hes a handicapper, he's a gallant trier and you'll get a run from him. might run into 4th or 5th this year again, so w/o kauto/long run market for him also. can never and will never win it, even a gold cup such as this which has question marks over it. my main fancy quito de la roque being ruled out has been annoying to say the least, i had a real fancy for him if off a strong pace he'd stay longer than the mother in law and believe he'd have relished every inch of the hill, picking them off late on. sum nice ante post gambles also down the drain but it's not pocket talk on that front, i am generally disappointed with his withdrawel and has somewhat killed my excitement for the race.

    I want to see someone to rival  the leading market duo, albeit with kautos fantastic wins and performances this season, im convinced he cant win even this renewal of the gold cup, 3m 2f at cheltenham very different than 3m at kempton and haydock.  i dont want it to be a case of long run v kauto.

    when you watch back the argento, and i agree that midnight chase was very impressive in that also, i dont think DIAMOND HARRY'S run is as bad as his position in the field would indicate. he travelled strongly for a long way, and given the fact they'd detected an issue with him immediately after and has had a breathing operation since, i might be clutching at straws believing hes a real contender on what hes shown, but given the fact of the said operation and the gernerous odds available (40/1), im willing to have a speculative punt that he can live up to his much touted promise from a year or 2 ago.

    BURTON PORT was similar odds to DH before Friday's excellent comeback run at Newbury, and although the value may have gone as a result, Henderson states he's training better at home than he ever did before injury, and it cant be forgotten that he had Long Run behind in 4th in the 2010 RSA when 2nd himself, and after showing himself in such good heart after a 400 plus day absence, has to be given serious consideration.
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    fingal bay one of my hype horses for the entire week, idled horribly in the challow hurdle, it will most definatley come up on the quick side for him and can see nothing but him getting tapped for toe and placing at best. simonsig may well be supreme bound (though weirdly yet to race min of 2m?!) and if memory serves i remember Nicky Henderson having a torrid record in the Neptune (bobs worth finally going albert barlett route last year after being ante post market leader in this race for long while). ive mentioned my admiration for King's horses, but with a strict form line through Barbatos on new years day, Batonnier might have a little to find with Fingal Bay, though he's gutsy and latest win at the track was pretty impressive potential improver again.

    Neptune winner goes to Ireland, namely Meade or Mullins with Monksland or Sous Les Cieux respectively, both currently available 14's and 16's make more appeal than the favourite.
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    andybuckandybuck Member Posts: 652
    edited February 2012
    yes father i am more than happy with my ante post tickets,,last year i just thought they went 1/2 a stride to quick for it which easily happen again which could affect its jumping again ,,but that the gamble,if it jumps well its sure to go close,,

    another one ive booked down is a 2m irish hurdler called dun or anul {or something similar} not sure if its entered at cheltenham,,got hampered last time and won impressively,will be backing it next time out as i thought it still had plenty in hand
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    andybuckandybuck Member Posts: 652
    edited February 2012
    if kauto jumps the last with a chance i will be shouting him on ,,thiis is the best chaser ive ever seen been lucky enough to see him race twice,,,,it reminds me when dessie won it ,i had backed {the mud lover YAHOO } at 40s ew he jump the last at least a length in front but i still shouted the super grey up the hill,,,another horse that would of ruled the roost if dessie wouldnt have been around was KILDIMO one of my all time fav horses,so often the bridesmaid ,he did beat dessie a couple of times if my memory serves me right
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    tallboytallboy Member Posts: 375
    edited February 2012
    Minsk for the triumph hurdle but back it before it runs on saturday, as you wont get anywhere near the price it is now.
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    DUNMIDOSHDUNMIDOSH Member Posts: 1,473
    edited February 2012
    Ferdy Murphy always seems to get one ready for Cheltenham at a big price!
    I notice he's got

    Negus de Beaumont
    and
    Kalahari King

    entered for races at big prices

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if they both ran well!
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: Horses for Cheltenham:
    Ferdy Murphy always seems to get one ready for Cheltenham at a big price! I notice he's got Negus de Beaumont and Kalahari King entered for races at big prices I wouldn't be at all surprised if they both ran well!
    Posted by DUNMIDOSH
    i like ferdy's de boitron for the grand annual, 16's available. plot horse for this race. i also like ataracad for same race from twisters yard
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    handicap weights and initial entries published today
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012
    apologies, these are entries only, weights announced on 29th Feb
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    BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited February 2012

    wont be backing anything in handicaps until weights are published, but one that jumps out as an entry in The Byrne Plate is Renard, french breds have good record in this race, trainer aint got a half bad record in it either!! :)  

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