After Darty clambering for me to start posting again....... Oh, it wasn't me.... Never mind fu@k him, I'm back ����.
I stopped posting for various reasons back end of last year, but there no need to go into why on here.
Fwiw this is what I fancy this week:-
Africa this week I can't be having Grace at such a short price. Sullivan doesn't excite me either at his price. For one reason or another I'm against most of the others at the head of the market too. I recommend a slightly smaller ew bet on 2 players with course form on more than 1 occasion and (in Hugo's case esp) good form back end of last year.
Hugo 80/1 ew
Fichardt 50/1 ew.
And a tiny bet on Justin Harding 300/1 ew
In the USA very much like Darty Im very keen on Reed. He's my bet of week 10/1 ew. And as his back up a player who is always quick out of the blocks Jimmy Walker 35/1 ew. Day not played for months, and Spieth was slow after Xmas last year as he didn't pick a club up over the festive period.
Howdy lads Happy New Year.... After Darty clambering for me to start posting again....... Oh, it wasn't me.... Never mind fu@k him, I'm back ����. I stopped posting for various reasons back end of last year, but there no need to go into why on here. Fwiw this is what I fancy this week:- Africa this week I can't be having Grace at such a short price. Sullivan doesn't excite me either at his price. For one reason or another I'm against most of the others at the head of the market too. I recommend a slightly smaller ew bet on 2 players with course form on more than 1 occasion and (in Hugo's case esp) good form back end of last year. Hugo 80/1 ew Fichardt 50/1 ew. And a tiny bet on Justin Harding 300/1 ew In the USA very much like Darty Im very keen on Reed. He's my bet of week 10/1 ew. And as his back up a player who is always quick out of the blocks Jimmy Walker 35/1 ew. Day not played for months, and Spieth was slow after Xmas last year as he didn't pick a club up over the festive period. Posted by joesman1
I don't why, but I didn't pick up on this part of your post when I first read it.
You know I love you Neil, welcome back :-)
and lets have three more rounds like the first round from Patrick Reed.
Hey Ice Tiger, great opening two rounds from your (our) 300/1 shot. Though if he's going to become a regular feature on this thread, we are going to have to come up with a nickname for Christiaan Bezhuidehnout Until someone comes up with a better suggestion, I'll go with come on Bez! Posted by TheDart
Joburg Open, and I've one particular pick who ticks a lot of the right boxes for me this week, South African Dean Burmester 40/1, first 6 ew with some leading bookmakers.
Won 4 times on the Sundhine Tour in the last 10 months.
Recent form on europeantour, 10th last week, 11th time before that.
The difference this week is he has some strong course form. First two days are played on different courses, last year Burmester shot 7 under on both courses, eventually finishing tied 13th.
First and second last week were young South Africans, Burmester should be thinking if they can do it so can I.
Not the value of last week but going to go with three heroes from last week plus two decent value bets so small bets this week. this is played over two courses - the West & the East courses over the first two days then everyone plays the East Course for the final two rounds.
The stats suggest that GIR is the number one priority here - the last four winners were 4th, 13th, 2nd & 1st for GIR.
Christiaan Bezoudenhout - 50/1
Cant desert last week's big hero for us but doubt we will see 300/1 again. 50/1 is fair in an average quality field as I was impressed with his temperament and he can give us another good run.
Trevor Fisher Junior 28/1
It may have gone unoticed by many that TFJ finished tied 8th and had the best score over the final 27 holes. Again, his price is shorter this week but think he is good for at least a place.
Brandon Stone 28/1
Think there will be mixed views on Stone's win last week. On one hand, he was heading for a mental breakdown halfway through the final round but somehow he got it back together to hold on impressively for the win. I think the win could be the making of him & he could get a quick second win as several others did last season. Worth the gamble at the price.
Dean Burmester 40/1
Finished 13th here a year ago and has won four times on the Sunshine Tour since. Should be a good run for our money.
Paul Dunne 80/1
A talented player who I think will make it good eventually. I think he can beat this field if he has four good days and at 80/1.......
I'm going to use the tried and tested formula of stealing the experts tips !! So will be doing Bezoudenhout, B.Stone , and D. Burmester ew stakes. Cheers and good luck again.
This is played on the Waialae Course in Hawaii. The event has been won by Jimmy Walker for the last two years & he is the favourite here at 14/1.
I have been looking at the PGA courses and linking them together in characteristics to try to spot identikit winners for various courses. This has led to me picking out a clear favourite for this week's event.
Graeme McDowell 45/1
This course shares characteristics with El Camaleon, Seaside Course & Harbour Town Links. McDowell won at ElCamaleon a couple of months ago and was 3rd at the Seaside Course, the following week whilst he has a good track record at Harbour Town, winning there three years ago.
I backed GiMac last week & he finished a disappointing 29th but he did improve each round & finished with four birdies in his final six holes. He has the perfect game to triumph here at a generous price.
Peter Malnati 80/1
Think he has managed to stay just enough under the radar to get a good price but he could be one of those players that jumps a level this season. He grabbed his first PGA Tour win at Sanderson Farms in November in a weakened field but he has shown that wasn't a one off by by finishing 10th at El Camaleon & 6th last week at the Hyundai, finishing ahead of Day, Bubba & Dustin. Think this is an 80/1 price on a 25/1 chance so value.
Brandt Snedeker - 25/1, a player I've admired for a few years,I thought he looked very good last week and players who play the week before have a good record at the Sony.
Snedeker hasn't played this event for a while and when he did his record was not good, but he's a top class player and I believe this course and conditions should suit him.
An extra confidence boost is Ice Tigers theory about linking course form on similar courses / set ups, something I also look for and give great value to.
Ice reckons players who have done well at Harbour Town could do well here, well Snedeker is a former winner at Harbour Town!
Harris English - 40/1, very strong course form which I like for this event. Playing with new clubs this week and is very bullish about how happy he is with the new clubs.
Edit: Ice Tigers other course link is El Cameleon and English has won this event, so another confidence boost!
Gary Woodland - 66/1, another player with good course form.
Cameron Smith - 125/1, young Australian who played mostly on the Asian Tour last year, but came to prominence with a 4th place finish in last years US Open.
Has some good results in Australia in December, first time here but conditions could suit him and worth a chance at 100/1 and upwards.
I also thought B. Snedeker did well last week, and with his putting ability if he keeps making fairways he will have chances to post a good score. So have him ew and added Harris English ew( i bet him a few times last year but just seemed to pick the wrong week).
Comments
Hugo 80/1 ew
Fichardt 50/1 ew.
And a tiny bet on Justin Harding 300/1 ew
In the USA very much like Darty Im very keen on Reed. He's my bet of week 10/1 ew. And as his back up a player who is always quick out of the blocks Jimmy Walker 35/1 ew. Day not played for months, and Spieth was slow after Xmas last year as he didn't pick a club up over the festive period.
You know I love you Neil, welcome back :-)
and lets have three more rounds like the first round from Patrick Reed.
Hey Ice Tiger, great opening two rounds from your (our) 300/1 shot.
Though if he's going to become a regular feature on this thread, we are going to have to come up with a nickname for Christiaan Bezhuidehnout
Until someone comes up with a better suggestion, I'll go with come on Bez!
Won 4 times on the Sundhine Tour in the last 10 months.
Recent form on europeantour, 10th last week, 11th time before that.
The difference this week is he has some strong course form. First two days are played on different courses, last year Burmester shot 7 under on both courses, eventually finishing tied 13th.
First and second last week were young South Africans, Burmester should be thinking if they can do it so can I.
£2.50 e/w double on Burmester @34 and Jimmy Walker @15
Be lucky
To complement my strong pick of Dean Burmester, I've added....
Trevor Fisher Jr - 28/1, same observation as Ice Tiger, that Fisher Jr was finishing stronger than anyone else last week.
Lee Slattery - 35/1, decent South African record and spends a lot of time out there, so should be almost local. He's also playing well.
and a small 'just in case' wager on Bez at 50/1
Brandt Snedeker - 25/1, a player I've admired for a few years, I thought he looked very good last week and players who play the week before have a good record at the Sony.
Snedeker hasn't played this event for a while and when he did his record was not good, but he's a top class player and I believe this course and conditions should suit him.
An extra confidence boost is Ice Tigers theory about linking course form on similar courses / set ups, something I also look for and give great value to.
Ice reckons players who have done well at Harbour Town could do well here, well Snedeker is a former winner at Harbour Town!
Harris English - 40/1, very strong course form which I like for this event. Playing with new clubs this week and is very bullish about how happy he is with the new clubs.
Edit: Ice Tigers other course link is El Cameleon and English has won this event, so another confidence boost!
Gary Woodland - 66/1, another player with good course form.
Cameron Smith - 125/1, young Australian who played mostly on the Asian Tour last year, but came to prominence with a 4th place finish in last years US Open.
Has some good results in Australia in December, first time here but conditions could suit him and worth a chance at 100/1 and upwards.
Good Luck All!