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Bad Beats & Dark Horses

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  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    mushroom1 said:



    Hideki Matsuyama has finished 5th, 7th, 11th, 19th and 32nd in the last five years here and has just joined the leaders in the Houston Open. I took 35/1 earlier today.

    I've taken similar prices about Tony Finau, who, over the past few years, has looked a certain future major winner. He boasts seven top-10 finishes in his last ten majors including a 5th and 10th in two attempts here.

    Plenty of money, earlier today, for both Matsuyama and Finau.


  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 127,575
    edited November 2020
    Masters golf.

    I'm keen on both Matsuyama & Casey. I like Morikawa too.

    Bryson would be a fun sweat, but 8/1 is way too cramped. Dustin has had another good year too, but again, we need (much) better value in the Masters. I like them both though.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    There was no session last night (aside from a couple of fruitless fiver tournaments early on).

    I am currently working on a "Horses to Follow" for the all-weather season and decided to spend last night writing, instead of player poker.

    I believe that was a good decision as I got plenty done and I am looking forward to playing poker this evening.

    One has to trick the mind.

    On the subject of mindset, I want to make clear that my rants are for my own benefit as much as anything else. We are all different, but I feel it us healthy to exorcise demons and let off steam.

    Way back when, in my live poker days, I would always travel to "away" tournaments with mate (be that a player or non-player). Poker can be a lonely game and I always felt the benefit of be able to bounce off another. I find this diary helpful in a similar way.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Tikay10 said:

    Masters golf.

    I'm keen on both Matsuyama & Casey. I like Morikawa too.

    Bryson would be a fun sweat, but 8/1 is way too cramped. Dustin has had another good year too, but again, we need (much) better value in the Masters. I like them both though.

    Just starting to look at the first round leader market.

    Here are the best first round scores since 2015, by those playing this week.

    64 Jordan Spieth
    66 Jordan Spieth (x2), Bryson Dechambeau
    67 Jason Day, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson
    68 Shane Lowry, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter
    69 Paul Casey (x2), Ian Poulter, Justin Rose, Adam Hadwin, Webb Simpson, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Justin Harding, Kevin Kisner, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott

    There are some huge prices about most of these players.

  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    I am starting with the Main and Mini, this evening.

    I may be daring and break my two-tabling rule and play the Mega - though, if I am out the Mini and/or Main before 20:45, there is no issue. :D
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    I forgot to mention that I sent the canary down the mine earlier, by playing the Rewards Freeroll.

    I am hoping my 24/1002 finish is a sign that it's safe to proceed.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Sometimes you just have to admit being outplayed...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    fiers5527Small blind4000.004000.0064063.75
    mushroom1Big blind8000.0012000.0055101.50
    Your hole cards
    • A
    • Q
    sillymidFold
    Dr_VelcroFold
    ValensisFold
    fiers5527All-in64063.7576063.750.00
    mushroom1All-in55101.50131165.250.00
    fiers5527Unmatched bet4962.25126203.004962.25
    fiers5527Show
    • 5
    • 3
    mushroom1Show
    • A
    • Q
    Flop
    • 5
    • 10
    • 8
    Turn
    • 4
    River
    • 6
    fiers5527WinPair of 5s126203.00131165.25
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    edited November 2020
    Played just the two tournaments last night.

    I won't post the hand due to the derogatory nature of my stance, but, in the Mini I was undone by the old 10x the BB call, out of position, with five-deuce, and with acted players behind. In his/her defence (not really), the five-deuce was suited.

    I raised 10x the BB with AQ after a sub-10xBB stack limped UTG (who folded).

    The five-deuce flopped a flush draw on a Queen-high flop and, well, you can guess the rest.

    Better news from my second MTT, the Reload, where I made my first final table for a few days. I got it in first, and in front, with A9 (vs QJ) but a Queen on the river sent me packing in 5th place.

    A total outlay of less than £15 on the evening, so a decent enough profit was made.

    The quiet night of one-tabling was mainly due to a first viewing of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Despite it's obvious indulgence, this was a return to form for Tarantino, after the hugely disappointing The Hateful Eight, and boasts probably the best third act of any of his films to date.
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 127,575
    edited November 2020


    Apropos 5-2 man, sometimes people do such mysterious things at the poker table, & it leaves us scratching our head & thinking "why?".

    I was playing a PLO8 MTT last night. 350 runners, we are 3 off the bubble, 36 paid 39 left, so everyone had tightened up.

    Fella with 30BB opens, fella behind with 40BB 3 bets. I have 60 BB & really good Aces & 4 bet. Opener folds, the 3 bettor now 5 Bets & so we soon get it all-in pre flop.

    He turns over 10-7-6-2, all diamonds.

    The flop is 5-8-9 giving him the straight, the turn is a 10 to give him trips & the river is a 7 to boat him up.

    I still managed to cash, but I spent a good 30 minutes thinking "why?". If he loses that coup he's set fire to a 40BB stack when just 3 spots off the money. As played, it's not like he thinks he can get me to fold, my hand is obvious & I'm pot-stuck anyway.

    The beat did not bother me, they never do, but the "why" intrigues me.

    Gotta love this game.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Tikay10 said:



    Apropos 5-2 man, sometimes people do such mysterious things at the poker table, & it leaves us scratching our head & thinking "why?".

    I was playing a PLO8 MTT last night. 350 runners, we are 3 off the bubble, 36 paid 39 left, so everyone had tightened up.

    Fella with 30BB opens, fella behind with 40BB 3 bets. I have 60 BB & really good Aces & 4 bet. Opener folds, the 3 bettor now 5 Bets & so we soon get it all-in pre flop.

    He turns over 10-7-6-2, all diamonds.

    The flop is 5-8-9 giving him the straight, the turn is a 10 to give him trips & the river is a 7 to boat him up.

    I still managed to cash, but I spent a good 30 minutes thinking "why?". If he loses that coup he's set fire to a 40BB stack when just 3 spots off the money. As played, it's not like he thinks he can get me to fold, my hand is obvious & I'm pot-stuck anyway.

    The beat did not bother me, they never do, but the "why" intrigues me.

    Gotta love this game.

    Pure hilarity.

    I truly believe that some players are so unaware, they have no idea how close they are to the money or, at least, have no concept of how play(ers) alters close to the bubble.

    Regarding beats, thinking back, I think I take 4-card beats a lot better than I do the two-card variety.

    Maybe it's because we are rarely that far ahead in PLO(8) and, even when dealt a beat, there can often be a understanding regarding why the villain was in the pot.

    The above is not an example of this, however. :D

    It's similar to the A4 v A4 coup I posted a few days ago. A another genuine close-to-the-bubble head scratcher.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Tonight I started with the Mini where, given I have lost 1400, 800 and 750 chips in three hands, I am pleased to be sitting with 2,400 chips.

    I registered late for the Mega and benefitted from a big blind special in my very first hand. Given the action, there was an excellent chance that I was up against the second-nuts, so felt the huge over-bet shove was the way forward...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    BobnlinSmall blind10.0010.009990.00
    mushroom1Big blind20.0030.009980.00
    cymru35Sit out
    Your hole cards
    • 6
    • 3
    Super_OliFold
    Jb5454Call20.0050.009980.00
    BleurghFold
    BobnlinCall10.0060.009980.00
    mushroom1Check
    Flop
    • 4
    • 2
    • 5
    BobnlinBet60.00120.009920.00
    mushroom1Raise240.00360.009740.00
    Jb5454Call240.00600.009740.00
    BobnlinRaise360.00960.009560.00
    mushroom1All-in9740.0010700.000.00
    Jb5454Fold
    BobnlinAll-in9560.0020260.000.00
    BobnlinShow
    • 3
    • A
    mushroom1Show
    • 6
    • 3
    Turn
    • 10
    River
    • 4
    mushroom1WinStraight to the 620260.0020260.00
  • Tikay10Tikay10 Member, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 127,575


    ^^^^^ what a beaut to be on the right side of.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Due to final-tabling the Mega, I made a (very) slight profit yesterday.

    Today I started by winning an Avenger seat in one of those £1.20 all-in satellite, in which I dished out a lesson in 'power poker'.

    Little of note happened other than making a bad bluff which hurt my post-rebuy period stack. I found Aces with around 12 big blinds and I decided to gamble. There were a couple of open players to my left so I opted to only 3x in search of action.

    The one caller flopped a straight flush draw and hit on the river. Although my stack was nowhere near attractive enough to take on with connectors, my pre-flop decision brought about my downfall, so I can have no complaints.

    A spend of just £20 is a silver lining.

    Second up was the Mini, where I am currently 44/353, having spent my minimum (double buy-in plus add-on).

    I broke my two-tabling rule by registering for the Mega and, in throwing my chips away, I proved my multi-tabling limitations with a move you won't often see from me.

    In a raised pot, I check-raised with AcJh on a Jc7s6c. I was then shoved on (pre-flop raiser now out of the pot).

    I was now getting 2/1 on a call (albeit for my entire stack) on damp board. I called and faced trip-sevens.

    My check-raise is maybe forgivable, as the bettor was not the pre-flop raiser and had done so in late position once checked to them. But, all things considered, I should fold to the all-in.

    This said, had I check-called the flop, a similar result would've ensued as I hit an Ace on the turn.


  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    edited November 2020
    Given it was originally the sole focus of this thread, for old times' sake, I made the £500 Mega my fourth MTT of the session. I am currently 4/66.

    MTT 5 was the Reload. I registered during the break and was out immediately after the play resumed, due to these lovely consecutive hands...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    bobstout23Small blind100.00100.0012130.00
    SkabenaBig blind200.00300.009070.00
    Your hole cards
    • K
    • K
    Burtace123Fold
    Browny27Fold
    mushroom1Raise600.00900.008130.00
    snoxx11All-in5740.006640.000.00
    bobstout23Fold
    SkabenaFold
    mushroom1All-in8130.0014770.000.00
    mushroom1Unmatched bet2990.0011780.002990.00
    mushroom1Show
    • K
    • K
    snoxx11Show
    • A
    • J
    Flop
    • 6
    • 9
    • A
    Turn
    • 10
    River
    • 3
    snoxx11WinPair of Aces11780.0011780.00
    Wait, there's more...

  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    SkabenaSmall blind100.00100.008970.00
    Burtace123Big blind200.00300.006260.00
    Your hole cards
    • A
    • K
    Browny27Fold
    mushroom1All-in2990.003290.000.00
    snoxx11Fold
    bobstout23Fold
    SkabenaFold
    Burtace123Call2790.006080.003470.00
    Burtace123Show
    • 3
    • A
    mushroom1Show
    • A
    • K
    Flop
    • 9
    • 3
    • 7
    Turn
    • 6
    River
    • A
    Burtace123WinFlush to the Ace6080.009550.00
    Cosmic.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    So, I exited the Avenger with Aces, the Reload with a combination of Kings and Ace-King and top-pair/top-two in the Mega.

    However, I can do much better than that.

    In the £500 Mega, I was in good shape; around 10th of 39 players with 30 getting paid.

    I flop a straight vs top-two (blind on blind against the only stack at the table capable of busting me). It all went in on the flop, with my opponents stack leaving scorch marks on the felt, such was the speed on his call.

    His two-pair turned into a full house on the turn. Surprisingly, I wasn't dead as the the full house card gave me an inside straight flush draw. No miracle, sadly, and I crashed out in 39th.

    Still hanging on in the Mini, but will have just 15 blinds by the time I submit this post.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    I made the £1000 BH at 23:00 my sixth MTT of the evening.

    I exit before the first break. With a stack of around 20-bigs, I find Jacks on the button when folded round. I run into Queens in the big blind.

    It went all-in pre, obviously.

    Still in the Mini, still have only 15-bigs.

    I shall probably make the Mid Ex my 7th and final tournament of the session.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    Out the Mini in 60th.

    It's folded to me in the cut-off (it is still the cut-off when 6-max?) and I shove my 15-bigs holding A9. The button, who twice survived by hitting two-outers in the past one (once against me), woke up with Kings in the big blind.

    The Kings did their job. Which was nice to witness, for once. ;)

    My record in rebuy Minis seems pretty good, I am about to start a campaign for two or three of them per week.

    I guess we keep going, keep making as many good decisions as possible and hope for the best.

    MTT #7: Mid Ex, confirmed.
    MTT #8: The £500 (23:30) to which I have just late-reg'ed.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    No joy in the Mid Ex, can't recall why. I think I may have played poorly. :D

    Finished 3rd in MTT #8.

    Final game of the night is the 00:30 where I am 10/37 with four bounties secured, meaning a small loss is worst case scenario for the session.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    mushroom1 said:



    Final game of the night is the 00:30 where I am 10/37 with four bounties secured, meaning a small loss is worst case scenario for the session.

    Struggling on in this one, though had Kings beaten twice.

    The latest was so frustrating...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    preston375Small blind50.0050.0013147.50
    mushroom1Big blind100.00150.006411.25
    Your hole cards
    • K
    • K
    MR_COOLCall100.00250.006580.00
    dudsnsud03Call100.00350.004607.50
    pompeyseanCall100.00450.003890.00
    nufc2707Fold
    preston375Call50.00500.0013097.50
    mushroom1Raise900.001400.005511.25
    MR_COOLCall900.002300.005680.00
    dudsnsud03Call900.003200.003707.50
    pompeyseanCall900.004100.002990.00
    preston375Call900.005000.0012197.50
    Flop
    • 3
    • A
    • 5
    preston375Check
    mushroom1Check
    MR_COOLCheck
    dudsnsud03Check
    pompeyseanCheck
    Turn
    • 4
    preston375Check
    mushroom1Check
    MR_COOLCheck
    dudsnsud03Check
    pompeyseanCheck
    River
    • 6
    preston375Check
    mushroom1Check
    MR_COOLCheck
    dudsnsud03Check
    pompeyseanBet100.005100.002890.00
    preston375Fold
    mushroom1Call100.005200.005411.25
    MR_COOLCall100.005300.005580.00
    dudsnsud03Call100.005400.003607.50
    pompeyseanShow
    • 7
    • 7
    mushroom1Show
    • K
    • K
    MR_COOLMuck
    • 10
    • 10
    dudsnsud03Show
    • 8
    • 8
    pompeyseanWinStraight to the 75400.008290.00
    Obviously, a c-bet takes this down but, as played, it's difficult to pull the trigger, here?

    What riles me is how this pot stayed this small pre-flop? How was I not given the opportunity to shut out the 77 and get heads-up with the TT or 88?
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