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hope this horses to follow list, might help a few of the punters
misterpj
Member Posts: 3,303
First the list, followed by entries, and a, little bit of Intel, on each horse, and why.
One or two, will know, some of these horses,mentioned prior.
for any Cheltenham ante post bets, from now, more prudent, to take a point or two shorter, but with nrnb (non runner no bet) especially with current uncertainty, and some doubt, over festival participation of the Irish runners.
Queen Mother Champion Chase March 17th
5-1 Politologue nrnb 10 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
Zarafshan (ex Irish) dual purpose 5yo with Emma Lavelle, had the magic wind op, Nov 2020,buzzed in, on the flat, 1m 7f at Kempton last week, 12-1,follow,next 3 runs,especially note, if straight into a hurdles run, next run.
Insignia of Rank (Irish) back every run, next 3 runs, min price 5-1
Ryanair Chase March 18th
20-1 Mastertommytucker nrnb 2.5 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
'dark one'
for the SKYBET sponsored handicap chase Sat 30th Jan
10-1 ROYALE PAGAILLE (Venetia Williams)
20 points each way at a fifth odds a place 1 2 3 4 5 SKYBET
and
in all seriousness, in anticipation, of the above, bolting up, in the above
50-1 Royale Pagaille Gold Cup Cheltenham March 19th 1 point each way a fifth 1 2 3
5-2 Minella Indo 7th Feb Irish Gold Cup 20 points win
and
Cheltenham Gold Cup March 19th
8-1 Minella Indo 10 points each way nrnb a fifth odds 1 2 3
TRONADA ( A King) back next 3 runs
Saint Roi 6th Feb Irish Champion Hurdle
6-1 with Skybet 10 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
and
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle March 16th
10-1 Saint Roi 10 points each way nrnb a fifth odds 1 2 3
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle March 16th
16-1 Goshen 3 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
Nordano back next 3 runs
'dark one'
Marown a Nicky Richards Novice Chaser, rated a Chunk better, than it's official 135 rating
entered, at Ayr, this coming Monday, price dependent, but very possible a maximum win bet.
AHDAB! wherever, this runs, back next 2 runs
Appreciate It, now this, really really is, a FORMLINE to follow,
think, Bob Olinger, Appreciate It, Ferny Hollow
think back, to the Cheltenham Champion Bumper 2020
this race
now, keep in mind, 'they did, and do' think the World of Appreciate It, who has run twice, this season
'they' also think the world, of Bob Olinger, career runs 5,career results, 1 1 2 1 1
and, the horse, that's beaten both Appreciate It, and Bob Olinger is.......
FERNY HOLLOW
such a shame, according to the Mullins Yard, likely to miss, the entire season, (stress fracture)
Captain Guinness
Leopardstown Sat 6th Feb Arkle Novice Chase
10-1 Captain Guinness 10 points each way fifth odds a, place 1 2 3
Fire Attack ( a very 'interesting' Hoss)
Runs Sunday
Punchestown 13.20 dead 8 runners
11-1 with Skybet right now, each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
avail yourself of a bit of Skybets 11-1 5 points each way
The Mick Preston ( Nigel Twiston-Davies)
Highly regarded lighy raced 5yo hurdler, 4 lifetime starts, now handicap hurdling, follow, and follow.
And, finally, what pj believes, are potentially the best 3 yo colt and the best 3yo filly, in England
right now, both nice and snug, at ClareHaven, for the evening, on a luxury bed of Hunters luxury shavings
Think Derby Think Oaks, think, possibly 2000 & 1000 Guineas
Colt DERAB Mr John Gosden
Filly INDIGO GIRL Mr John Gosden
14-1 INDIGO GIRL 1000 Guineas 10 points each way 14-1 stand out a fifth odds 1 2 3, as short as 8s elsewhere
16-1 INDIGO GIRL The Oaks 10 points each way 16-1 stand out two bookmakers a fifth odds 1 2 3,as short as 10s elswhere
40-1 DERAB 2000 Gunieas 5 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
50-1 DERAB The Derby 25 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3 stand out, 33s elsewhere
1 point each way double Indigo & Derab 14s & 40s 1000 & 2000 Guineas
2 point each way double Indigo & Derab 16s & 50s Oaks & Derby
One or two, will know, some of these horses,mentioned prior.
for any Cheltenham ante post bets, from now, more prudent, to take a point or two shorter, but with nrnb (non runner no bet) especially with current uncertainty, and some doubt, over festival participation of the Irish runners.
Queen Mother Champion Chase March 17th
5-1 Politologue nrnb 10 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
Zarafshan (ex Irish) dual purpose 5yo with Emma Lavelle, had the magic wind op, Nov 2020,buzzed in, on the flat, 1m 7f at Kempton last week, 12-1,follow,next 3 runs,especially note, if straight into a hurdles run, next run.
Insignia of Rank (Irish) back every run, next 3 runs, min price 5-1
Ryanair Chase March 18th
20-1 Mastertommytucker nrnb 2.5 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
'dark one'
for the SKYBET sponsored handicap chase Sat 30th Jan
10-1 ROYALE PAGAILLE (Venetia Williams)
20 points each way at a fifth odds a place 1 2 3 4 5 SKYBET
and
in all seriousness, in anticipation, of the above, bolting up, in the above
50-1 Royale Pagaille Gold Cup Cheltenham March 19th 1 point each way a fifth 1 2 3
5-2 Minella Indo 7th Feb Irish Gold Cup 20 points win
and
Cheltenham Gold Cup March 19th
8-1 Minella Indo 10 points each way nrnb a fifth odds 1 2 3
TRONADA ( A King) back next 3 runs
Saint Roi 6th Feb Irish Champion Hurdle
6-1 with Skybet 10 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
and
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle March 16th
10-1 Saint Roi 10 points each way nrnb a fifth odds 1 2 3
Cheltenham Champion Hurdle March 16th
16-1 Goshen 3 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
Nordano back next 3 runs
'dark one'
Marown a Nicky Richards Novice Chaser, rated a Chunk better, than it's official 135 rating
entered, at Ayr, this coming Monday, price dependent, but very possible a maximum win bet.
AHDAB! wherever, this runs, back next 2 runs
Appreciate It, now this, really really is, a FORMLINE to follow,
think, Bob Olinger, Appreciate It, Ferny Hollow
think back, to the Cheltenham Champion Bumper 2020
this race
now, keep in mind, 'they did, and do' think the World of Appreciate It, who has run twice, this season
'they' also think the world, of Bob Olinger, career runs 5,career results, 1 1 2 1 1
and, the horse, that's beaten both Appreciate It, and Bob Olinger is.......
FERNY HOLLOW
such a shame, according to the Mullins Yard, likely to miss, the entire season, (stress fracture)
Captain Guinness
Leopardstown Sat 6th Feb Arkle Novice Chase
10-1 Captain Guinness 10 points each way fifth odds a, place 1 2 3
Fire Attack ( a very 'interesting' Hoss)
Runs Sunday
Punchestown 13.20 dead 8 runners
11-1 with Skybet right now, each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
avail yourself of a bit of Skybets 11-1 5 points each way
The Mick Preston ( Nigel Twiston-Davies)
Highly regarded lighy raced 5yo hurdler, 4 lifetime starts, now handicap hurdling, follow, and follow.
And, finally, what pj believes, are potentially the best 3 yo colt and the best 3yo filly, in England
right now, both nice and snug, at ClareHaven, for the evening, on a luxury bed of Hunters luxury shavings
Think Derby Think Oaks, think, possibly 2000 & 1000 Guineas
Colt DERAB Mr John Gosden
Filly INDIGO GIRL Mr John Gosden
14-1 INDIGO GIRL 1000 Guineas 10 points each way 14-1 stand out a fifth odds 1 2 3, as short as 8s elsewhere
16-1 INDIGO GIRL The Oaks 10 points each way 16-1 stand out two bookmakers a fifth odds 1 2 3,as short as 10s elswhere
40-1 DERAB 2000 Gunieas 5 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3
50-1 DERAB The Derby 25 points each way a fifth odds 1 2 3 stand out, 33s elsewhere
1 point each way double Indigo & Derab 14s & 40s 1000 & 2000 Guineas
2 point each way double Indigo & Derab 16s & 50s Oaks & Derby
Comments
VERY INTERESTING
advised at 11-1 with Skybet, been punted, all morning
As short as 9-2 BV, bits of 11-2
think 🤔 it might be trying today
first two races at Punchestown, hugely interesting
Envio Allen, odds on in places, for the Cheltenham Novice Chase, runs in 20 mins, surprised its 2s on, and not 4s on.
and MAWROWN NON RUNNER
Advised at 11s, went off 11-2 sp, patently trying for its life, the only horse to go after the tearaway front runner.
Doesn't tell the full story of the race, Fire Attack fell at the last.
The winner, Dreal Deal is, to say the least, one of the most interesting horses in training, the handler (trainer) is one of the few, who reminds me of a certain..
Mr Barney Curley.
Patience in abundance.
'done it' with a handicapper called The Jam Man several times, a sharp as a tack Irish trainer, with just 7 horses, in training.
Quick look, at a racing year,in the life of Dreal Deal Sept 2019 to Sept 2020
10 runs, unsighted with a telescope, in the 4 runs, prior to a monumental gamble, 20-1 into 6-4 fav, and bolted up, its starting prices were, 100-1 200-1 250-1 and 100-1
here you are
Now take a look, at 4 months, in the life of Dreal Deal Sept 2020 to Jan 2021,reads;
Won sp 6-4 from 20s by 6 1/2 lengths
Won 5-6 by 2 1/4 lengths
Won 4-9 by 3 1/4 lengths
Won 4-6 by 2 lengths
Won 2-9 by 5 1/2 lengths
Won 22-1 yesterday (Fire Attacks race) won 22-1 sp by 3 lengths
Over night, the magic sign, were shortest 9-2, drifted like a barge, all day, on the machine, its very rare to get a tissue priced horse at 4-1,being layed at near 40s,(unless you know something) and layed in running at a ceiling of 200 (unless you know something) especially a horse with Dreal Deals profile and run style.
Someone (s) somewhere, thought they knew something, and must have been, on supreme terms with themselves, (watch the race) ridden like a Non Jigger, then in the blink of an eye, it's on the bridle, pulling double going to the last. OUCH
Got a hunch, maybe the White and Green stripes, will make Mr Ronan M P McNally, an offer for Dreal Deal, that's impossible to turn down?
You might, have to wait, 6 months, a year? 2 years? but we'll worth keeping, an Eagle eye, on Mr McNallys 7 horses in his yard.
4 months ago, 20s - 6-4 bolted up, Dreal Deal must have had 4 stones, in hand.
8th August 2020 rated 50
19th Sept 2020 canters in rated 84
17th Jan 2021 bolts up 22-1 rated 141 in a Grade 2
Can only think of, one horse, that did this.
HuntBall
Won off 69
Won at the Cheltenham Festival off 141
put up, to 155! and still bolted up!!
I wonder, what sort of a Euros offer? Mr Mcnally would take, today, for Dreal Deal
entry's don't mean a run, or a bet, but, Marown at Haydock would be of interest, and a, price in potentially a hot little small field race.
pj given, this wealth warning and hint before, take great care, if you play in running, on the machine, not just drones,live picture micro cam copters, are out, up and about!
Best in running track, to play at, pj's local, Lingfield
treat the Mrs Girlfriend, 'boyfriend' to this
live feed pictures, in all the suites
Viking Hoard, tests positive for HEPS (known sedative)
same animal was layed for chunks
Clarence House Chase
Poliologue ( H Cobden rides) 20 points win 5-4 available everywhere
make this, a 2 horse race
Waiting Patiently ( Brian Hughes, rides) 12 points win 5-2 everywhere
yes, your betting odds on, can't have Defi,
32 returns + 13 or + 10
word, reached pj's ears, only intended target, trainer thinks,this is a bit special
Posted above, the Appreciate It, Ferny Hollow, Bob Olinger formline
this 16-1 shot, has this form
Won 2nd Won Won 4th (last year's festival) Won Won
7 runs, 5 wins a 2nd,and 4th
run that draws the eye, course form, 4th, Cheltenham Champion Bumper
spelt this way, get on':
Cheltenham Supreme Novices Hurdle
Third Time Lucki 16-1 at this time standout (WH & 365) 12s elswhere
don't need the nrnb on this one, target race, yard fancy it massive
15 points each way fifth odds a place 1 2 3 grab the 16s
pj
Really really looking forward, to Saturday, if? Haydock and Ascot go ahead, some fantastic racing.
several horses, of huge interest, even now, 4 days ahead, scouring the prices for value, looking at, which horses jocked up, and trying to find out, which are definate intended runners.
There is a very, underrated young chaser, yard think is top class, and finally, for the first time, gets its trip. Can't back it, or advise it, until know its a definate runner, be 3s,in a small field. Rest assured, will put it up, second I know it runs.
Also, really fancy a 3-1 shot in a 6 runner race, against an odds on poke, at Ascot, in the mares race, but, no point advising until a definate runner, as it has got to get here, from Co Kildare.
Will keep, an accurate account, all bets, as they run.
Currently minus 10 points ( 1 runner 11-1 > 11-2 fell last Fire Attack)
must add, one bet now, for Saturday.
15.15 Haydock Saturday
in the New One Hurdle
Top Class Champion Horse
Top Trainer
Nico De Bonville rides
its fit, its fancied, intended runner
Odds On with Skybet
but 11-8 W. H. standout
16 points win 11-8
Buveur D'air
only 5 runners declared, only 2 horses jocked up
Might be wrong, can see this going off, 2s on!
ran flat when 2nd last time,yard were off colour.
"if that's genuine, thankyou"
@vaigret (Terry) is one of the most genuine guys on the Forum, and a first class judge of horses.
He has a superb tipping thread here where he explains his selections & does a report on how they fared. Last time I looked he was over 100 points up.
It's here;
https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby/community/forums#/discussion/comment/1150640
Anyone who took the available 11-8 Buveur D'air be on good terms with themselves, only 3 run, and Buveur now best at 4-9.
Sat Taunton
14.10
No 2 If The Cap Fits
gets the trip it needs (3 1/2 miles) for the very first time in a small field (7 runner) chase
James Bowen rides, assures maximum assistance from the saddle. 3-1 standout, 11-4 skybet wh 5-2 everywhere else.
10 points win 3-1
Sat Ascot
13.15
No 1 Magic of Light
Jessica Harrington won this race, 12 months ago with Magic of Light and sends this one from Co Kildare for the repeat attempt,only 5 run, has Roksana (touch of odds on to beat) but 11-4 stand out WH & 365
10 points win 11-4
horse from list Nordano
Sat Ascot
13.50
No 5 Nordano
backed Nordano its last few runs, thought it showed, a, lot more zest lto, frontrank until faded late
12 run Saturday Skybet stand out price 25-1 but only 1 2 3
backed it 22-1 a fifth odds 1 2 3 4 WH
2 points each way 22-1
saw this one, win an egg and spoon race at Plumpton, four years ago. It was the owner trainer combo back then that caught my eye,and for Phillip Hobbs to only get ten lifetime runs in 4 years (especially for JP) says (a) the horse has had problems, but (b) the fact they are persevering is a positive. First time up, and 'fresh' might just be the right time to catch Jerrysback.
Here are Jerry's first four jumps runs Won Won up Won 50-1!
Sat Ascot
15.00
No 8 Jerrysback
12-1 a fifth odds 1 2 3 4
3 points each way
Sat Haydock
12.55
No 3 Marown (horse off the list)
Sean Quinnlan rides this for N Richards
just 5 run, Inc a N Henderson odds on hotpot, but, 5 runners and 9-2 a quarter 1 2
8 points each way 9-2 WH
All bets advised for Saturday
Politologue 5-4
Waiting Patiently 5-2
Buveur D'air 11-8
If The Cap Fits 3-1
Magic of Light 11-4
Nordano 22-1 ew
Jerrysback 12-1 ew
Marown 9-2 ew
must mention Royale Pagaille, backed this at 10s for the skybet next week, that now looks like money done without a run, as Royale Pagaille is in the Peter Marsh G2 Haydock 14.50 Sat
2-1 fav, ten run, watching, not backing.
Course, fit to race, but,Sat 08.00 am inspection, threat of frost.
a usually shrewd racing pal, thinks a, miracle needed, for Haydock to race, hope he is wrong.
no one will read this!
might take yours truly, a while, but 'more equitable' is a genuine intention
As, you probably know, remember?
Haydock, and the clerk, got form in the book! for errors of judgement
Distinctly remember, morning line days, Alistair Down going apoplectic!
and (really, bout 25 years ago) Haydock claiming 'frost free, nothing frozen' yet camera panned, to a fence, with two people (jockeys) walking along the top of a solid, frozen fence.
Hope, all races, are run, but I wouldn't bet 1-100! they are.
Anyways
¤ important ¤ to pj, at least
Royale Pagaille today Peter Marsh Haydock 14.40
Advised this strong, for the Skybet at 10s,next Saturday, and speculative long range, Gold Cup interest at 50s
must, still be an inkling, of doubt (Haydock) because;
Ante Post Betting, for the Skybet Sponsored Chase, next Sat follows, still, as short as 6s in 3 places, backed it at 10s, but, I am having, 10 points win today 6-4 and 5 points win by 10 lengths or more Skybet enhanced, here at 6-1, if a, prayer of live outsiders Gold Cup chance, could? destroy these a distance!
Current real time odds, for Royale Pagaille in next Sat's a skybet chase
Not a, chance, it runs, in 7 days, if it runs today, maybe, if the name M.Pipe! (Blowing Wind) Sandown Sat & Chelt Festival within 7 days for the mega bonus, but defo not Ms Venniettia!
Bet 1. Fire Attack 5 points e-w 11-1 > 11-2 sp up fell last - 10
Bet 2. Marown 8 points e-w 9-2 > sp 9-2 2nd 9-2
half way round, WH ante post bet terms, flashing through mind, is it AOTW (all on to win) 4 only ended up running, but ante post bet rules apply, to a bet struck at the time struck, 5 runners ew a quarter 1 2 as posted 9-2 9-8 + 1
the Henderson horse, was actually a big drifter, fell, the winner punted, thought Marown ran a great race, will continue to follow.
Bet 3. Magic of Light 10 points win 11-4 2nd 9-2 sp, huge drift, odds on Roksana punted into 8-15 simply way to good - 10
Bet 4. Nordano 2 points ew 22-1 up, followed it over a cliff, remove now from list to follow, still think, 'when' that gets on the lead, different animal, off list, but not saying, won't back it again. - 4
Bet 5. If The Cap Fits 10 points win 3-1, all the way round, thought got this spot on, when it jumped past Yala Enki, thought it would win 10L, needs 3m +, thought 3 1/2 m first time ever, ideal, maybe, 3m 2f Optimum, 2nd sp 9-4 - 10
will never ever, do artistic licence where punting concerned!
could (won't) write, 2nd 9-2,2nd 9-2, up, 2nd 9-4,which is verbatim, but no good for profit _loss
Current, - 33 points, thourally enjoying the racing, a winner would stop the Twitchin!
writing this sentence, at the 📴
please, Please Royale, win on the snaff, hacking🙏